Weather Watch — forecast of a dry winter for SA's southwest remains firmly in place

Daily Maverick

05-05-2025

Western Cape dam levels are only at 57.2% – the lowest among South Africa's provinces by a country mile – as the parched prospects for winter descend.
The winter rainy season for South Africa's southwest will be more dry than wet, with implications for the region's agriculture including the winter wheat crop and water security.
In its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch report, which looks five months ahead – in this case from May to September – the South African Weather Service has maintained its dry outlook for the southwest and extended that prognosis to September.
'As early winter is starting in May-June-July, the focus shifts to the southwestern parts of the country and the southern and eastern coastal areas. Both the southwestern parts and the southern and eastern coastal areas are expected to receive mostly below-normal rainfall early, mid- and late-winter,' the report said.
Western Cape dam levels are only at 57.2% – the lowest among South Africa's provinces by a country mile – according to the latest update from the Department of Water and Sanitation, and the province counts on the winter rains to top up its reservoirs.
April has been unseasonably wet across much of the interior of South Africa including the Free State and Gauteng. The Vaal Dam's levels are at almost 120%, forcing authorities last week to open 10 of its sluice gates and issue evacuation notices as the Vaal River is pumping.
The Katse Dam in Lesotho, which contains much of Gauteng's water supply, is almost 100%.
But the Western Cape is high and dry as the parched prospects for winter descend. Mind you, many Gauteng residents are also high and dry and face frequent water cuts, but that is a consequence of state failure rather than Mother Nature.
And the temperature outlook across most of the country remains warmer than usual. So expect a relatively mild autumn and winter – a state of affairs that, among other things, should ease demand on the national power grid.
What this means for you
If you live in the southwest you may want to take shorter showers to conserve water. And the forecast for a mild winter across most of South Africa should reduce the need for Eskom to impose the rolling power cuts known as load shedding.
'Minimum and maximum temperatures are largely expected to be above normal for most parts during the winter season, with the notable exception of the southern coastal areas that are expected to see parts of it be below normal,' the report said.
It also noted that 'some parts of Mpumalanga' are expected to have a wetter winter than usual. DM