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UBS says this solar stock can rally 75% even as U.S. budget bill poses risks to clean energy

UBS says this solar stock can rally 75% even as U.S. budget bill poses risks to clean energy

CNBC30-05-2025
Sunrun can surge from here even as a new U.S. budget bill poses a risk to the clean energy sector, according to UBS. Analyst Jon Windham kept his buy rating on the solar company. He did cut his price target to $12 from $17, but that still implies the stock could still gain 75% from Thursday's close. Sunrun shares have plunged nearly 26% this year and more than 52% over the past year, as traders ditch clean energy names under the Trump administration. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) has dropped more than 3% in 2025 and 13% in the past six months. The latest headwind for the sector comes after the U.S. House of Representatives on May 22 passed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which proposes to eliminate the 30% Investment Tax Credit by the end of December. The bill has allowed homeowners to reduce their electricity costs by installing solar panels and battery storage systems. "Our lower target multiple reflects the overall intent of the House to seemingly remove all tax credits regarding residential solar and our relatively negative outlook on the Senate's willingness to preserve the credits compared to programs like the 45x manufacturing credit," Windham wrote in a Friday note to clients. RUN 1Y mountain Sunrun stock performance. But according to the analyst, Sunrun could remain resilient in the face of these cuts. If the residential tax credits are fully slashed, he said Sunrun could survive regulatory changes by structuring its Power Purchase Agreement options, getting more state-level policy support and transitioning to end markets such as commercial and industrial and community solar. He also noted that the company has strong assets. "Our estimates are unchanged as there is the potential for revisions in the U.S. Senate and possible that a final bill does not pass," Windham wrote. "We maintain our buy rating ... based on RUN's underlying $2.6bn portfolio of contracted net earning assets. In addition, we see potential upside scenarios beyond the U.S. budget bill." Wall Street remains split on Sunrun. Of the 25 analysts covering the stock, on rates it a strong buy, while 10 rate it a buy and 12 give it a hold, per LSEG.
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How SNAP federal funding cuts could change free lunch at Knox County Schools
How SNAP federal funding cuts could change free lunch at Knox County Schools

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How SNAP federal funding cuts could change free lunch at Knox County Schools

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Senate approves more than $180 billion in 2026 funding before August recess
Senate approves more than $180 billion in 2026 funding before August recess

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Senate approves more than $180 billion in 2026 funding before August recess

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The annual legislative branch funding plan calls for about $7 billion for House and Senate operations, the U.S. Capitol Police and agencies like the Library of Congress (LOC), the Government Accountability Office, the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and the Architect of the Capitol. Capitol Police would see a boost under the plan, along with the CBO, while funding for the LOC, the CRS and the GAO would be kept at fiscal 2025 levels. Lawmakers also agreed to $44.5 million in emergency funds aimed at beefing up security and member protection, citing safety concerns following the shootings of Minnesota lawmakers earlier this year. Republicans had previously been uncertain about whether the third bill would be passed as part of the package this week until Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), a senior appropriator, said a deal was worked out to allow him to vote on the measure separately from the other bills. 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'It didn't happen because members of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Republicans and Democrats, didn't think that was the right thing to do – to preserve what we had set out before and make sure that the men and women [of the FBI] have a level 5 security headquarters,' he said. 'We did it because the President of the United States was going to throw a fit if that provision stayed on.' Van Hollen said he hopes the bill will be able to 'get back on track' in September. However, Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kansas), chair of the subcommittee alongside Van Hollen, offered a rather gloomy outlook for the bill's next steps after recess. He argued much of the focus in September is likely to be on getting a deal on a funding stopgap, also known as a continuing resolution (CR), to keep the government funded beyond the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline. 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Senate GOP quietly urges House to shift approach on shutdown talk
Senate GOP quietly urges House to shift approach on shutdown talk

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The Senate's Interior and Environment appropriations bill for 2026, for example, provides $41.45 billion in total funding, including $3.27 billion for the National Park Service and $6.17 billion for the Forest Service. It passed out of committee with overwhelming bipartisan support, 26-2. The House Interior, Environment and Related Agencies bill, by comparison, provides $38 billion in funding, which is $2.9 billion below the level enacted in 2025. It also includes 72 controversial policy riders that would restrict the issuance of rules to protect sage grouse, prohibit the implementation of an updated public lands rule and dictate the timing of offshore and onshore fossil-fuel extraction leases. The House measure passed out of committee on a partisan 33-28 vote. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the ranking member on the House Appropriations Committee, complained last week that bipartisanship has been 'thwarted' on the House side. 'It's not a negotiation,' she said, arguing the legislation being drafted by Republican House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (Okla.) 'does not look to being bipartisan in a way that both Democrats and Republicans can come together.' Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) says Senate Republicans want to avoid a last-minutes standoff with Democrats over funding that could threaten a shutdown. The Senate GOP leader warned in an interview with the 'Ruthless' podcast that Schumer is unlikely to swallow a partisan funding deal sent over from the House shortly before the Sept. 30 deadline, noting the Democratic leader 'got just blown up' for voting for the partisan, yearlong funding bill the House passed in March. 'I think [Democrats are] going to be under an enormous amount of pressure come fall, which is why … we need to do everything we can — House Republicans, Senate Republicans, President Trump and his team — to … set it up for success, to keep the government up and funded,' Thune said. 'And then … Chuck Schumer … what's he going to do? Is he going to bow to the Democratic base, or do the responsible thing and keep the government open? That's the decision,' he added. A Democratic senator who requested anonymity to comment on discussions within the Democratic caucus said Schumer is coming under heavy pressure from liberal colleagues to insist on a bipartisan funding stopgap. And they're urging him to reject any partisan funding measure akin to what the House jammed the Senate with in March. 'We all want to pursue a bipartisan, bicameral appropriations process. That's how it's always been done successfully, and we believe that should happen. However, the Republicans are making it extremely difficult to do that,' Schumer told reporters after meeting with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) last week to discuss strategy. Asked what he would do if the House sent another partisan continuing resolution to the Senate shortly before the funding deadline, Schumer said: 'We're for a bipartisan, bicameral bill. That's what's always been done. The onus is on the Republicans to make that happen.' Senate Republicans have heard that message loud and clear, and they want to avoid sticking Trump with a shutdown in the fall. An element of the Senate Republican strategy is to pass several of the regular appropriations bills for fiscal 2026 before the end of September to promote a sense of optimism that Republicans and Democrats can work together to fund the government. GOP senators hope that, in turn, would reduce the temptation for the House to simply send to the Senate a stopgap funding measure that cuts deeply into Democratic priorities, as Johnson did in March, and dare Schumer to shut down the government. By passing a few spending bills this week or in early September, Senate negotiators would be in a better position to insist that House GOP leaders meet them halfway. The Senate voted overwhelmingly Wednesday, 90-8, to proceed with its version of the military construction and Department of Veterans Affairs appropriations bills. Thune is trying to attach to that measure a bill funding the Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration and another funding the departments of Commerce and Justice, science programs and NASA. Thune tried to attach the legislative branch appropriations bill to the package but Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) objected, insisting on the measure getting a stand-alone vote. The Senate will resume voting on nominees Monday while Thune attempts to get all 99 other senators to sign off on a time agreement for expanding the appropriations package beyond military construction and Veterans Affairs. 'We want to get as many bills considered in this tranche as possible,' Thune told reporters last week. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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