Playbook: Trump's turning point on Gaza

Politico

6 days ago

Presented by
With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
On today's Playbook Podcast, Adam Wren and Dasha Burns discuss President Donald Trump's split from Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu over Gaza and how it's reverberating throughout the MAGA movement.
Good morning. It's Tuesday, and I'm Adam Wren. Let's get to it.
In today's Playbook …
— The populist right has run roughshod over countless Republican orthodoxies. Could the GOP's unconditional support for Israel be next?
— First in Playbook: Chuck Schumer today will call on the FBI to examine whether foreign countries have tried to access the Jeffrey Epstein files for leverage over Trump.
— First in Playbook: An exclusive first look at the NRCC's memo telling Republican House members how to sell the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to the public over recess.
DRIVING THE DAY
A TURNING POINT ON GAZA: For a decade, President Donald Trump's MAGA movement has bulldozed through generations of GOP orthodoxy on everything from the national debt to immigration to trade to Russia.
Now, there are fresh signs that MAGA is careening toward one of the last remaining Republican shibboleths: unconditional support for Israel, an article of faith that has long animated both Trump's white evangelical base and traditional Republicans hawkish about the Middle East.
How we got here: Yesterday, Trump made his first substantive break with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu over Gaza. On Sunday night, Netanyahu denied the extensive and well-documented reports of a humanitarian disaster in the region, insisting that 'there is no starvation in Gaza.' Yesterday, Trump was asked whether he agreed. 'Based on television, I would say not particularly, because those children look very hungry,' Trump said. 'They have to get food and safety right now.'
In that split, Trump raised hopes among the populist 'New Right' that he accepted their argument that a true 'America First' foreign policy would supersede any U.S.-Israel special relationship when the interests of the two nations diverge.
In short: The days of the old GOP party line on Israel could be numbered.
The view from MAGA: 'It seems that for the under-30-year-old MAGA base, Israel has almost no support, and Netanyahu's attempt to save himself politically by dragging America in deeper to another Middle East war has turned off a large swath of older MAGA diehards,' Steve Bannon, the influential former White House adviser with a fingertip feel for Trump's base, tells Playbook. 'Now President Trump's public repudiation of one of the central tenants of Bibi's Gaza strategy — 'starving' Palestinians — will only hasten a collapse of support.'
It's not just Bannon. Witness hard-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). 'It's the most truthful and easiest thing to say that Oct 7th in Israel was horrific and all hostages must be returned, but so is the genocide, humanitarian crisis, and starvation happening in Gaza,' she posted last night on X. Or consider VP JD Vance's remarks in Ohio yesterday, when he spoke of the 'heartbreaking' images from Gaza and said 'Israel's gotta do more to let that aid in and we've also gotta wage war on Hamas so that those folks stop preventing food from coming into this territory.'
All of this sets up several tests …
Of the Trump coalition: Is his tent big enough for both a New Right wary of supporting Israel and dispensationalist evangelicals who believe that supporting Israel is a biblical mandate?
Of the broader political landscape: Looking across the aisle, an Israel-skeptical left finds itself joined by a freshly Israel-skeptical New Right in the latest sign of once-clean ideological boundaries scrambled by a feverishly encroaching populism (see also: the Epstein files fallout).
Of the so-called Trump Doctrine: Speaking last month in Ohio, Vance articulated a 'Trump Doctrine' — articulating 'a clear American interest,' trying to 'aggressively diplomatically solve that problem,' and when you can't, using 'overwhelming military power to solve it and then you get the hell out of there before it ever becomes a protracted conflict.' Here, Trump has articulated a clear American interest: not allowing Palestinian children to be starved to death. What comes next if aggressive diplomacy with Netanyahu fails?
Of Trump's foreign policy: Will he assert a greater role for U.S.-led humanitarian aid that is a relic of a pre-MAGA conception of America's role abroad? 'For Mr. Trump, who boasts about his transactional approach to deal-making on the world stage, the starvation unfolding in Gaza is a test of whether an America First foreign policy can confront one of the biggest humanitarian catastrophes of the 21st century,' NYT's Luke Broadwater and Michael Shear write.
WHAT MOTIVATES TRUMP: But even as some on the New Right agitate for an end to automatic U.S. support for Israel, to ascribe Trump's break with Netanyahu to some grand MAGA foreign policy project is far too pat.
It's about the visuals: America First adherents like Bannon may want him to part ways with Netanyahu over ideology, but Trump appears to be doing so because of optics. The most television-conscious president in American history is colliding with television images that don't sit well with him. (Asked whether he agreed with Netanyhu, for instance, his response began: 'Based on television, I would say not particularly…')
It's about the human toll: Trump, for all of his bluster and chest-pounding machismo, can be sensitive to images of violence. Former Trump 1.0 national security adviser John Bolton — no sycophant — recalled in his memoir that amid calling off possible Iranian strikes, Trump said to him: 'Too many bodybags.'
It's worth remembering that Trump, in addition to being the most powerful person in the world, is also the grandfather to 11 children; how could he not be moved by the images from Gaza? 'He has many awful, awful instincts,' Sohrab Ahmari, the influential writer who helped shape Vance's own worldview, tells Playbook. 'But one of his best instincts is a revulsion for human horror and bloodshed.'
All of this lays bare the notion that Trump himself is not driven so much by ideology as by guttural impulse.
'He is incredibly tactile in his foreign policy approach,' said Matthew Bartlett, a State Department appointee in Trump's first administration. 'He routinely talks about meeting with the families of hostages, seeing the devastation of Gaza as well and the photos of babies or even battlefield casualties in Ukraine.'
But, Bartlett said: 'In some ways, it is him at his most human and vulnerable, and in some ways, it makes America First policy a tightrope.'
THE MAGA REVOLUTION
THE REVOLUTION COMES TO INDIANA: EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin today will officially unveil a centerpiece of the Trump administration's campaign to roll back the fight against climate change. Zeldin will be in Indiana to announce changes to the agency's endangerment finding, which has underpinned a wide range of federal authorities to regulate emissions for 16 years, POLITICO's E&E News' Jean Chemnick and Zack Colman preview for Pros. He'll also lay out plans to ease up on auto climate rules.
JUDGE FOR YOURSELF: With a vote coming soon, Emil Bove's judicial nomination has been buffeted by a third whistleblower stepping forward with allegations against him — but the Senate GOP seems to be holding firm. The new person gave Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) evidence that goes against Bove's claims at his confirmation hearing, raising allegations that he misled senators, WaPo's Perry Stein and Theo Meyer scooped. This is about a different issue than Erez Reuveni's whistleblower account against Bove, a staunch Trump loyalist and attack dog, whose confirmation to a lifetime judgeship would epitomize Trump's remaking of government.
But but but: Democrats may still need to sway two more Republicans to vote no. And Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) sound unmoved by the latest allegations, with Tillis indicating he'd want the whistleblower to self-identify, POLITICO's Hailey Fuchs reports.
SCHOOL DAZE: Harvard may be willing to pay up to half a billion dollars, though perhaps not directly to the federal government, to settle Trump's barrage of investigations and attacks against the university, NYT's Michael Bender and colleagues report. That would dwarf the penalty Columbia paid, though Harvard sounds more reluctant to accept the imposition of an outside monitor as Columbia did. Trump's emphasis on extracting money from Harvard is something of a shift from his earlier focus on changing Harvard's ideology.
Up next: The Justice Department is now probing not only George Mason but also its faculty who supported the school's diversity programs and leadership, NYT's Vimal Patel reports. And the Education Department began a new probe of Duke University and the Duke Law Journal over diversity practices, The Washington Free Beacon's Aaron Sibarium scooped.
THE PURGE: Leading Justice Department antitrust officials Roger Alford and Bill Rinner were fired yesterday, apparently with 'insubordination' cited as one reason, CBS' Jacob Rosen and Jennifer Jacobs scooped. The top deputies were part of Gail Slater's team, which has had some tension with other parts of the administration and business leaders.
VAX NOT: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially laid out a major shake-up of the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, per Axios. The system for paying people hurt by vaccines has been the subject of some broad criticism, but pharmaceutical companies have warned that changing their liability protections could lead vaccine makers to exit the market.
MORE ADMIN MOVES: OPM issued new guidance reiterating and expanding federal employees' right to proselytize in the workplace, per Government Executive's Eric Katz. … The FTC officially opened an investigation into medical providers' claims about gender transition-related medical care, particularly for minors, per Axios' Adriel Bettelheim. … CIA Director John Ratcliffe intends to declassify more intelligence in its investigation of the FBI's Trump-Russia involvement, Fox News' Brooke Singman scooped.
IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID
FED UP: The Fed's next meeting begins today with the central bank under pressure from Trump to lower interest rates — though policymakers are expected to instead hold them steady at tomorrow's announcement. That will kick off a major week for the U.S. economy, from the Fed decision to Friday's tariff deadline and tons of big new reports on the latest economic data, NYT's Ben Casselman and Colby Smith preview. By week's end, it will be clearer whether the economy is in fact still holding stronger than expected under Trump's policy shocks — or starting to take a hit.
Trading places: The big picture for Trump's protectionist policy is that the White House is barreling toward historically high levels of tariffs remaking the world economy — without unleashing big tit-for-tat trade wars, POLITICO's Daniel Desrochers and colleagues report. Trump has forced many countries into agreements that look more favorable to the U.S. than its trading partners. Far from the longtime free-trade consensus in Washington, the world will now broadly see 15 to 20 percent tariffs from the U.S., which American consumers will pay, NBC's Rob Wile writes. And Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has introduced a bill that would send $600 per person in tariff rebate money to Americans, NBC's Allan Smith scooped.
Note of caution: With plenty of details still uncertain, it remains far from clear whether all these trade deals will actually translate into greater foreign market access for U.S. suppliers and foreign investments in the U.S. Some economists don't expect the growth boom Trump envisions, AP's Josh Boak and Paul Wiseman report.
Dance of the superpowers: U.S.-China trade talks continue today in Sweden between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. They could conclude by keeping the status-quo pause on higher tariffs — and laying groundwork for a Trump-Xi Jinping summit, per the AP. Trump officials have paused tech exports controls to try to grease the wheels, FT's Demetri Sevastopulo reports.
Another possible irritant: Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te was due for a Latin America swing that would have included stopovers in New York and Dallas, angering Beijing. But Lai is now postponing the sensitive trip, Reuters' Trevor Hunnicutt and Yimou Lee scooped. The Trump administration blocked him from stopping in New York, FT's Demetri Sevastopulo and Kathrin Hille scooped. But one top U.S. official told NewsNation's Kellie Meyer that 'nothing has been canceled' and they're 'working to remedy the situation.' At the same time as Trump pushes for a China deal, though, senators from both parties are planning to introduce new bills this week hammering Beijing on human rights, Reuters' Patricia Zengerle scooped.
Across the pond: After the U.S. and EU reached a rough trade deal, both sides are scrambling to craft a joint statement by Friday, with legally binding text following thereafter, Bloomberg's Jorge Valero reports. Trump largely triumphed in the negotiations after Europeans pivoted to try to limit the pain from U.S. tariffs and bring stability to the relationship instead of erase the levies completely, WSJ's Kim Mackrael and Brian Schwartz report. Many businesses reacted to the agreement positively, though some Europeans were concerned about having conceded too much. Pharmaceutical tariffs could especially cost a lot, per NYT's Rebecca Robbins.
BEST OF THE REST
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Schumer keeps up the pressure: As Senate Democrats ramp up their focus on Jeffrey Epstein this week, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer today will take to the Senate floor to call on the FBI to undertake a counterintelligence threat assessment of Trump-Epstein connections. Schumer wants a risk assessment to examine whether foreign countries might have tried to access the Epstein files and possibly use the information therein as leverage over Trump. He'll also tie the concern to recent Chinese hacks of Microsoft.
Related: Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) demanded that Deputy AG Todd Blanche and the Justice Department hand over tapes of the recent Ghislaine Maxwell interviews, per NYT's Annie Karni.
RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT: In New York, Democratic state legislators will introduce legislation today that would give the state a chance to redistrict in the middle of the decade as a response to another state doing so, NYT's Benjamin Oreskes reports. It's Dems' latest move in an increasingly assertive drive to threaten gerrymanders of their own if Texas Republicans try to snatch several House seats.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — How to sell the megalaw: A new NRCC memo lays out how House Republicans can pitch the American public on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act during August recess, POLITICO's Andrew Howard reports. The GOP is urging members to go on offense and not fall for Democratic trackers, though it doesn't weigh in on whether to hold town halls. Read the memo
2026 WATCH: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is considering a comeback bid for either governor or Senate, and he met with Schumer this weekend in Ohio, Axios' Stephen Neukam and Alex Isenstadt scooped. … Vance will attend an RNC fundraising dinner in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. … First in Playbook: VoteVets PAC is endorsing Ryan Crosswell in Pennsylvania's 7th District.
JUDICIARY SQUARE: AG Pam Bondi announced that DOJ had filed a misconduct complaint against Judge James Boasberg, yet another escalation of the administration's campaign against judges who have ruled against it, POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein report. … Federal appellate judges squeezed the government on whether it's setting deportation quotas, per Josh and Kyle. … A judge expanded her block on defunding Planned Parenthood through Medicaid to apply to all the organization's locations around the country, per Roll Call. … New York AG Letitia James led a multi-state lawsuit against USDA's effort to get data on the immigration status of SNAP recipients, per the Washington Examiner. And that's not all …
JUDGE CONTENDS TRUMP ADMINISTRATION MISLED SCOTUS: The already-bristling tension between the Trump administration and federal judges grew even more uncomfortable yesterday as a federal judge all but accused the Justice Department of lying to the Supreme Court, POLITICO's Josh Gerstein writes in.
Judge Susan Illston, a Bill Clinton appointee in San Francisco, told a federal appeals court that DOJ gave the justices false information about the impact of an injunction she issued in May halting reductions in force at many federal agencies.
Citing the Office of Personnel Management, Solicitor General John Sauer informed the Supreme Court on June 2 that 'about 40 RIFs in 17 agencies were in progress and [were] enjoined' by Illston's injunction, but the judge said records she ordered the administration to turn over show the correct tally was 31 RIFs in 10 agencies. 'This discrepancy is not insignificant,' Illston wrote.
Sauer's arguments helped persuade the Supreme Court to issue a ruling earlier this month letting the mass firings she blocked go forward. DOJ spokespeople did not respond to requests for comment last night.
PAIN PILLS: 'Medicare Part D Drug Plan Premiums Set to Rise,' by WSJ's Anna Wilde Mathews and Liz Essley Whyte: 'Premiums for Medicare drug plans are set to increase sharply next year, due to rising costs, regulatory changes and cutbacks to a subsidy program. The subsidy program, which sent extra federal funds to the private insurers that offer the drug benefit — known as Part D — had largely shielded seniors from rising monthly bills in 2025. … The Trump administration is set to cut spending on that program by about 40% in 2026.'
FUNDING FIGHT: House and Senate Republicans are eyeing largely status-quo funding levels for the NIH, a far cry from Trump's request for a 40 percent cut, Roll Call's Ariel Cohen reports.
PENDING: 'Trump Administration Weighs Patent System Overhaul to Raise Revenue,' by WSJ's Amrith Ramkumar: 'Commerce Department officials are discussing charging patent holders 1% to 5% of their overall patent value, a shift that could dramatically increase fees.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — Rep. Bob Onder (R-Mo.) has introduced legislation to honor Trump by renaming the Kennedy Center as the Trump Center, per The Hill. Maria Shriver was among the Kennedy family members not thrilled by the prospect of the Donald J. Trump Center for the Performing Arts: 'This is insane. It makes my blood boil.'
ANNALS OF INFLUENCE — A line of Trump-themed Instant Pots — pitched by a lobbyist whose client was trying to persuade the administration on tariffs and antitrust — 'looked like a page out of a new political playbook,' NYT's David Fahrenthold and Ben Protess report. Until the Times asked the Trump Organization about it, that is, and the Trump team issued a legal threat on trademarks.
OUT AND ABOUT — The Institute for Education held a discussion about China last night with Singaporean Ambassador Lui Tuck Yew, French Ambassador Laurent Bili and Finnish Ambassador Leena-Kaisa Mikkola — all of whom were previously ambassadors to China — at Lui's residence. SPOTTED: Ruth Berry, Matthew Chan, David Edelman, John Paul Farmer, Evi Fuelle, Darío Gil, Kathy 'Coach' Kemper, Shaun Modi, Tim Powderly and Demetri Sevastopulo.
MEDIA MOVES — Hope Hicks is joining Megyn Kelly's Devil May Care Media as COO, the N.Y. Post's Alexandra Steigrad scooped. She's a former top Trump White House aide and Fox Corp. executive. … Glenn Kessler has taken a buyout at WaPo after more than 27 years. He said he 'couldn't work out an agreement' with the paper for a short-term extension to train a successor for The Fact Checker, so its future is uncertain. … The FT is adding Amy Mackinnon as U.S.-Europe foreign affairs correspondent and Abigail Hauslohner as U.S.-Mideast foreign affairs correspondent. Mackinnon previously was a national security reporter at POLITICO and is a Foreign Policy alum. Hauslohner previously was a national security reporter at WaPo.
TRANSITIONS — Tiffany Justice is joining Heritage Action as EVP, Axios' Hans Nichols scooped. She is a co-founder of Moms for Liberty. … Vanessa Valdivia is now SVP at Original Strategies. She most recently was senior adviser to Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and is a Jill Biden alum. … Hilary Borris is now senior political strategist and partnerships lead at Compete, heading its expansion in D.C. She previously was regional political director at House Majority PAC and is a DCCC alum. …
… Amy Hasenberg-Elliott is now a director at FGS Global. She most recently was comms director for Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.), and is a Jim Risch and Pat Toomey alum. … Rick Stockburger has been named the inaugural CEO of the Foundation for Energy Security and Innovation. He previously was president and CEO of Brite Energy Innovators.
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Ben Kenney, a senior adviser at CGCN and principal at MacKenwick Group, and Megan Kenney, owner of MacKenwick Farms and senior director of business expansion at MasLabor, on July 3 welcomed Dawson Edward Kenney, who came in at 8 lbs, 1 oz and 21 inches. Pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) … NBC's Peter Alexander … Herbie Ziskend … Ja'Ron Smith of CGCN Group … Ken Burns … Lise Clavel … Jim Hake of Spirit of America … POLITICO's Beth Diaz and Kelsey Brugger … CNN's Kristin Fisher … Rick VanMeter … Laura McGann … Rob Hennings … Hilton's Katherine Lugar … Bloomberg's David Westin … AP's Aaron Kessler … Garance Franke-Ruta … former Reps. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.) and Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio) … Karl Douglass … Danny Vinik … Washington Lt. Gov. Denny Heck … Lyndsay Polloway … former Sens. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) and Nancy Kassebaum (R-Kan.) (93) … Marilyn Quayle … Nathan Sell of IFF … Nate Rawlings … Yusuf Nekzad of Rep. Nikki Budzinski's (D-Ill.) office … Sheila Dwyer … Carol Eisenberg … Laura Nichols
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