Is Elon Musk's America Party for real? Don't bet against a billionaire.

USA Today

5 hours ago

If Musk is serious about doing this, and it's not clear that he is, he could truly alter the next election, if not more.
Could Elon Musk revolutionize American politics with his new American political party?
The odds are wildly against it, but ... it's Elon Musk. What were the chances he could become the richest man in the world? Start the first major American car company in decades? Create a reusable rocket booster?
Betting against Musk has seldom been a winning strategy.
That said, politics is very different from anything he's done before. In politics, there's much more equality than there is in the market.
Sure, a billionaire can buy a much bigger megaphone, but it's the voters who decide if they like what they're hearing. A few months ago, Musk turned a Wisconsin judicial election into the most expensive judge election in the history of American politics – and lost pretty big.
Also, his involvement in DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, was a notable failure by almost any measure.
So money doesn't guarantee success in politics. It just helps a lot.
Third parties, even well-funded ones, have almost never succeeded in American politics. The last one to emerge and win the presidency was the Republicans in 1860. So, it's been a minute since that happened.
Do you want a third party? Musk says America needs to form a third political party. Do you agree? Tell us. | Opinion
How Musk's new political party could have an impact
Nevertheless, Musk has a chance, in this polarized moment, to make a difference in 2026. If he does that, his party could set it itself up quite well for 2028.
The margins in the House of Representatives and Senate are very tight. If Musk could find a couple states, a couple of districts and the right candidates to run, he could deny either Democrats or Republicans the majority needed to control those chambers.
Right now, it would take as few as three seats to be the power broker in the House, and three to four in the Senate.
Then, the America Party could bargain with both parties, in one or both chambers. A tiny party could demand the top leadership post in return for support. And it could shift its votes from issue to issue.
Chaotic? Almost certainly. The other great advantage that Musk has is a near-record number of Americans are unhappy with our political system. A new party that isn't the Democrats or the Republicans, but works with both to get things done? That sounds like what a lot of Americans say they want.
Opinion: Musk wants a new political party. This could be the moment for it to work.
True, the same polarization that makes American politics so unpopular, ugly and gridlocked right now will make it harder for any of Musk's candidates to win.
Most folks on the left won't vote for Musk's party if they think it will mean victory for Trump's MAGA movement. Most folks on the right won't vote for Musk if they believe it will lead to liberal Democrats winning.
Musk himself would need to demonstrate qualities he's never really shown, even at the apex of his business successes: message discipline, compromise, shared leadership and, yes, some degree of humility.
Is America really going to support a political party led by a multibillionaire South African immigrant, widely known to be a fan of several exotic intoxicating substances, who has fathered at least 14 children by at least four women?
Trump has changed the rules of politics
Well, another thing that Musk has going for him is Trump's example. Trump has altered American politics forever by breaking so many of the norms and rules of our system.
When America reelected a convicted felon billionaire who allegedly had sex with adult video stars, who allegedly cheated on all of his wives, who bragged about getting into the dressing room of teenage pageant stars, who partied with Jeffrey Epstein, who tried to overturn a legal election, who bragged about avoiding taxes … it expanded the scope of the possible.
When it comes to scandal, Musk is an amateur compared with Trump.
An interesting thing about Musk's party: He can start a party. He can lead it. And he certainly can afford to fund it. But he can never be president.
The Constitution forbids it. As an immigrant naturalized U.S. citizen, Musk will have to find a native-born American to run for president in 2028 at the top of his ticket. And then, trust and work with that person. Tall order for a man used to just giving orders from an Olympian height.
Yet if Musk is serious about doing this, and it's not clear that he is, he could truly alter the next election, if not more. With just a fraction of his hundreds of billions, he could affect 10 to 20 congressional races in ways we simply have never seen before. With the right candidates and issues, he just might do it.
If he does, American politics will get even weirder.
Buckle up, America.
Jeremy Mayer is professor of political science in the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.