Thailand and Cambodia cannot afford this war – but neither is prepared to give an inch

Telegraph

a day ago

The tank screeches as it rolls into the ad-hoc military base before four battle-weary soldiers jump out to re-inspect the hefty vehicle.
Around them, the thud of artillery fire reverberates, a near-constant reminder that the forested front line is just three miles south.
This is not the image that comes to mind when most people think of Thailand.
But since Thursday, when simmering tensions over a long-disputed border with Cambodia ignited into open conflict, these troops have been at the forefront of clashes that have claimed 33 lives, including children.
Lt Nitipon, who gave only his first name, told The Telegraph in Sisaket province on Saturday: 'You can hear two sounds right now – one is from artillery fire, the second is from the rocket launcher. It's coming from both sides… all I can tell you is that we are protecting our sovereignty.'
The Thai soldier added that while his unit had no intention of ceding ground, they had not escaped their battles unscathed.
'This is the duty for me as a soldier, and I'm very proud to do my duty… but of course I don't want the war to go on because it only brings losses,' Lt Nitipon said. 'People in our unit have been injured and are in treatment right now at the field hospital.'
On Saturday, Thailand and Cambodia traded fresh accusations and heavy artillery fire as the conflict between the south-east Asian neighbours entered a third day, with few signs of imminent de-escalation on the ground.
In Sisaket – where even the normally ubiquitous 7-11 convenience shops had closed their doors in eerily quiet border towns – military trucks tore down the deserted roads leading to the front line.
Throughout the afternoon, The Telegraph heard the frequent boom of artillery.
Clashes also spread further west to coastal regions on Saturday, where Thailand's navy joined the fight, despite continued international calls to cease violence, including an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on Friday.
Donald Trump, the US president, wrote on social media on Saturday, referring to tariff negotiations: '[We] do not want to make any Deal, with either Country, if they are fighting – And I have told them so!'
But while both sides have talked of peace, Thailand prefers bilateral talks and Cambodia favours international arbitration.
Each has also claimed that the other has undermined armistice efforts by continuing to attack civilians, and criticised the use of assets including F-16 jets and rocket launchers.
Tita Sanglee, a Bangkok-based associate fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute think tank, said: 'I think the Thai military is [trying] to weaken Cambodia's military capabilities before negotiating.
'But my sense is that the fighting will be contained along the border, but will be quite intense.
The two sides are at odds over how to resolve disputes, but it's not in their interest to escalate this geographically, partly because of tourism and economic interests.'
Bitter spats between the two rivals are not new, with much of the animosity dating back to differing interpretations of a colonial-era map, leading to disputed ownership of ancient temples.
But the latest violence is now bloodier than the previous major outbreak, between 2008 and 2011.
On Saturday, Cambodia's defence ministry said at least 15 people have been killed so far, while Thailand has put the death toll at 20. In all, 21 civilians have lost their lives across both countries, including an eight-year-old.
Thongdee Nimit, 67, said perched on a red plastic chair in the evacuation centre where she's been since Thursday: 'This is the heaviest fighting that I remember.
'The warning came and not even three minutes later – boom, boom, boom.
'It was so scary, and all the soldiers were coming saying 'get out', 'get out'. It wasn't like this at all last time.'
Ms Nimit is among thousands of evacuees sheltering in a covered concrete schoolyard, where they are sleeping and eating on mats with little refuge from the humid weather.
In all, officials estimate that more than 138,000 people have now been forced to flee their homes in Thailand, plus a further 35,000 in Cambodia.
Yinh Ya, an NGO executive who fled Cambodia's Oddar Meanchey province after witnessing heavy shooting, said: 'We left the home and just evacuated the people out, we left out animals and our assets.'
'We're worried because they [Thailand] have used drones and jets to attack the military along the border already,' he told The Telegraph by phone, laying blame squarely at Bangkok's door.
'Even though there has been tension for months, everyone here was shocked by how fast it all happened. There is a lot of fear.'
Animosity between the two nations re-emerged in May, after a Cambodian soldier was killed in a skirmish on the disputed 508-mile border.
But relations truly imploded after two groups of Thai soldiers were injured by landmines on Wednesday.
Thailand claims the ordnance was newly laid, but Cambodia says they are leftovers from a final stint of fighting during the murderous Khmer Rouge regime.
Still, soon after the incident, both sides downgraded relations, expelled their neighbour's ambassador and recalled embassy staff.
Then on Thursday, heightened tensions ignited into deadly clashes – both sides blame the other for starting the violence.
Yet the embers of war are also being fanned by strongmen politicians in Bangkok and Phnom Penh.
Escalating tensions have mirrored a rapid decline in relations between Hun Sen and Thaksin Shinawatra, two former prime ministers whose children now hold the role.
Or at least, Thaksin's daughter Paetongtarn did – until Hun Sen leaked an audio of a call last month where she kow-towed to the Cambodian leader and criticised her own military, a major red line in Thailand. She has since been suspended, and Thailand plunged into a political crisis.
Analysts attempting to explain Hun Sen' s motives for unravelling a once-close friendship – the two men had called each other 'godbrothers' – say it may be linked to a crackdown by the Thai government on scam centres in Cambodia, or because of Thaksin's push to legalise casinos in Thailand, which would threaten business across the border.
But through the fighting, he has succeeded at bringing the country together against a common enemy, said Mu Sochua, the head of the opposition Khmer Movement for Democracy.
She told The Telegraph: 'His tactic is working… it's like a big wave of outrage,'
'There's nothing to stop this nationalistic sentiment at this moment.'
A similar outpouring has been seen in Thailand, where local media have also reported attacks on migrant workers.
In Bangkok, one motorbike taxi was seen with a sign on his back on Saturday saying he would 'not accept orders from Khmer/Cambodian people'.
Yet, despite his attempts, Thaksin may not be able to capitalise in the same way as Hun Sen, a largely authoritarian figure who has significantly more power domestically.
Peter Mumford, the head of the Eurasia group's south-east Asia office, said: 'The military skirmish puts further political pressure on… Paetongtarn and likely emboldens their conservative opponents.'
'If the security or domestic political situation worsens, speculation about a military coup will grow – though we are not there yet.'
Yet in Sisaket on Saturday, few were thinking about national politics.
Instead, weary residents too anxious to sleep amid artillery fire just wanted life to return to normal – though they, like the soldiers, felt Cambodia was at fault.
Pawana Apaisila, a resident, said: 'I cannot sleep at night because I'm just thinking about what's happening and our home.
'None of this is worth it. But then, if we cave to them [Cambodia], I think they will keep wanting more. I am a Thai citizen, I feel we cannot keep losing our land to them.'