France faces another tough wheat export year despite better crop
Sparse overseas demand could lead France to stock hefty amounts of wheat or offload more crop in livestock feed markets. Either outcome could keep prices below production costs, a trend that has fuelled farmer protests in the past year.
Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday projected French soft wheat exports outside the EU in 2025/26 at a relatively modest 7.5 million metric tons, contributing to a forecast 21-year high for end-of-season stocks.
Sales to Algeria and China, among France's biggest wheat buyers in recent years, stalled last season due to a diplomatic fallout between Paris and Algiers and a general drop in Chinese imports amid hefty domestic supply.
A smaller than normal 2024 French crop meant steady demand from Morocco and West Africa, plus sporadic sales to Egypt and Thailand, absorbed last season's surplus. But that may no longer be enough.
"The harsh reality is that France has a huge challenge to reach a 7.5 million ton export programme," Rory Deverell, owner of Black Silo Commodity Consulting, said.
A price rise in Russia amid tight availability in the world's biggest wheat supplier may offer only brief respite, with Russian and other Black Sea region producers expected to sweep up near-term demand, as shown by this week's 1 million ton purchase by Algeria.
'Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria are likely to dominate wheat exports in coming months," a German trader said. 'The west EU faces the threat of being only a niche wheat exporter."
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