logo
Where is the value in increasing the Help-to-Buy scheme threshold?

Where is the value in increasing the Help-to-Buy scheme threshold?

Irish Times4 hours ago

Pre-budget submissions
are all about pleadings. Every special interest group in the State makes a pitch for more resources. They all consider their proposals to be in the wider public and economic interest. Some are worthy, many more are largely self-interested.
This year the whole process appears to have kicked off earlier than usual, perhaps on the understanding that the largesse of recent years is unlikely to be repeated this time around.
In the first place, there is no election. Worries for the medium-term health of Europe's most open economy in a climate where tariffs, trade wars and an absence of consistency on policy are increasingly the norm also will inevitably push Ministers towards a more cautious approach.
And for what money is available, the need is to prioritise investment in infrastructure. Expensive upgrades to electricity, water and sewerage networks that are increasingly being cited by foreign direct investors among factors counting against Ireland Inc are needed.
READ MORE
An
EY
survey on Friday found that more than two-thirds of Irish businesses 'are worried about securing enough
energy
to meet future needs', which is an extraordinary number.
Put together, it means more things are going to be a tough ask to get over the line.
[
First-time buyers in Dublin now locked out of Help-to-Buy scheme, warns Savills
Opens in new window
]
It seems a strange time then for estate agent
Savills
to be picking CSO house price data to press for an increase in the upper threshold for the
Help-to-Buy
scheme. Savills says
first-time buyers
in Dublin are paying an average of €515,000 for a home, putting them beyond the €500,000 ceiling for Help-to-Buy.
It wants that ceiling increased to at least €621,000 to take account of inflation, it says.
First, averages are notoriously prone to manipulation by singular expensive property sales. Second, the more reliable median data from the same CSO note shows that prices exceed €460,000 only in Dún Laoghaire Rathdown among the four Dublin local authority areas.
[
Developers are bluffing when they say lower prices would undermine viability of house building
Opens in new window
]
Then there is the maximum available tax refund under Help-to-Buy, which is €30,000. Ignoring that when calling for a higher ceiling is not making property more affordable for first-time buyers in general, only for the very wealthy.
It is worth remembering that while the marketing speaks about providing a helping hand for first-time buyers – with even the scheme's name selected for the same reason – Help-to-Buy was from the start a scheme put together to help developers make the numbers stack up on building starter homes.
That's not happening, as supply constraints (and prices rising at their fastest rate in 10 years) attest, so for the State – and those first-time buyers – what is the value of widening the incentive?

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Where is the value in increasing the Help-to-Buy scheme threshold?
Where is the value in increasing the Help-to-Buy scheme threshold?

Irish Times

time4 hours ago

  • Irish Times

Where is the value in increasing the Help-to-Buy scheme threshold?

Pre-budget submissions are all about pleadings. Every special interest group in the State makes a pitch for more resources. They all consider their proposals to be in the wider public and economic interest. Some are worthy, many more are largely self-interested. This year the whole process appears to have kicked off earlier than usual, perhaps on the understanding that the largesse of recent years is unlikely to be repeated this time around. In the first place, there is no election. Worries for the medium-term health of Europe's most open economy in a climate where tariffs, trade wars and an absence of consistency on policy are increasingly the norm also will inevitably push Ministers towards a more cautious approach. And for what money is available, the need is to prioritise investment in infrastructure. Expensive upgrades to electricity, water and sewerage networks that are increasingly being cited by foreign direct investors among factors counting against Ireland Inc are needed. READ MORE An EY survey on Friday found that more than two-thirds of Irish businesses 'are worried about securing enough energy to meet future needs', which is an extraordinary number. Put together, it means more things are going to be a tough ask to get over the line. [ First-time buyers in Dublin now locked out of Help-to-Buy scheme, warns Savills Opens in new window ] It seems a strange time then for estate agent Savills to be picking CSO house price data to press for an increase in the upper threshold for the Help-to-Buy scheme. Savills says first-time buyers in Dublin are paying an average of €515,000 for a home, putting them beyond the €500,000 ceiling for Help-to-Buy. It wants that ceiling increased to at least €621,000 to take account of inflation, it says. First, averages are notoriously prone to manipulation by singular expensive property sales. Second, the more reliable median data from the same CSO note shows that prices exceed €460,000 only in Dún Laoghaire Rathdown among the four Dublin local authority areas. [ Developers are bluffing when they say lower prices would undermine viability of house building Opens in new window ] Then there is the maximum available tax refund under Help-to-Buy, which is €30,000. Ignoring that when calling for a higher ceiling is not making property more affordable for first-time buyers in general, only for the very wealthy. It is worth remembering that while the marketing speaks about providing a helping hand for first-time buyers – with even the scheme's name selected for the same reason – Help-to-Buy was from the start a scheme put together to help developers make the numbers stack up on building starter homes. That's not happening, as supply constraints (and prices rising at their fastest rate in 10 years) attest, so for the State – and those first-time buyers – what is the value of widening the incentive?

Fianna Fáil is in desperate need of a candidate for the presidential election. Applications are invited
Fianna Fáil is in desperate need of a candidate for the presidential election. Applications are invited

Irish Times

time4 hours ago

  • Irish Times

Fianna Fáil is in desperate need of a candidate for the presidential election. Applications are invited

No matter how much it protests that no decisions have been made, it's hard to see how Fianna Fáil can really just sit out October's presidential election . True, the party hasn't contested an election since 2007, when Mary McAleese snatched the nomination from Albert Reynolds and went on to win a bitterly contested race, subsequently serving two successful terms. But the reasons the party didn't contest in 2011 and 2018 – the first because it was in total meltdown after the financial crisis and then because there was a popular incumbent whom it quite liked seeking a second term – don't apply in 2025. Micheál Martin, having restored Fianna Fáil from a state of near-death to the largest party in the State and returned to the Taoiseach's office after last year's elections, has a credible claim to being the party's most successful leader since its founder. Running for elections is what successful parties do. Sitting on the sidelines, especially with Fine Gael running in what could turn out to be a restorative election for its leader, would be a peculiar choice and reflect both an insecurity about the future and a paucity of imagination and resources for the present. If Sinn Féin runs its own candidate – undecided, say party sources, but likely I think – it would be even harder for Fianna Fáil to enter a nolle prosequi. READ MORE Not that Martin and his allies care all that much for the presidency. They are interested in power and there is little if any power in the Áras. But symbols matter in politics. The election of Michael D Higgins in 2011 didn't save Labour , some Fianna Fáilers point out. True. But the election of Mary Robinson opened the door to thousands of voters who would give Labour unprecedented political opportunities. More than that, Robinson's election signalled and was part of opening up what would lead to a different society. It was one of the most consequential elections ever. The problem, as Martin's lieutenants have pondered for many months now, is a candidate: they don't have one. 'Is there a shortlist?' I asked one party panjandrum. 'There isn't even a long list,' he chortled. 'Have you any ideas?' Bertie Ahern spent months publicly offering himself – though less ubiquitously of late, suggesting some private messages of discouragement have been sent. This is probably wise for the party, and for the Bert. If he ran, the campaign would be a nightmare for him, he would have no chance of winning, and he would ultimately regret it. Offering herself too has been Mary Hanafin, but she has been received with coolness rather than enthusiasm. The truth is that there is an entire generation of Fianna Fáilers whose participation in the economic car-crash of 2008-11 more or less disqualifies them from the prospect of success in an election like this – with the remarkable exception of the leader himself, though he likes being leader and Taoiseach and is not ready for retirement yet. Barry Andrews has no interest in either running for president or doing the job. Photograph: Nick Bradshaw Barry Andrews , having a keener political eye than he sometimes lets on, has no interest in either running for the job or doing it and while his MEP colleague Cynthia Ní Mhurchú is being what passes in politics for coy on the question, even a barrister's self-confidence will only get you so far. 'Fianna Fáil will spend the summer going around to the summer schools looking at the various speakers,' laughs one Leinster House insider, a prospect calculated to strike terror into the hearts of those who might be tasked with the job. There remains at all levels of the party, including the leadership, the idea that a McAleese-type candidate will walk through the door some day soon. And maybe that will happen, but for now it remains wishful thinking, and as time ticks on, the chances are diminishing. The former SDLP leader Colum Eastwood is offering himself for this role, but Martin appeared to dismiss that prospect when asked about it recently, insisting that there had been no approach from Fianna Fáil to Eastwood and expressing his surprise at the suggestions that there had. 'It's open to everyone to put themselves forward,' he said. Experts on instant attraction will have noted this is not exactly, 'You had me at hello'. And so the question facing Fianna Fáil, according to several party sources who discussed the issue privately in recent days, may be this: if the party can't find a candidate that it is enthusiastic about, is it better to run a bad candidate or no candidate at all? Opinions vary within the party. One TD fears the political impact of coming third or even fourth behind Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and maybe an Independent. But would it be worse than sitting out the contest entirely? I don't think so. Another party source looks at it this way: when Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell crashed and burned in the 2011 contest – at a time when the party was by far the dominant player in government and politics – and came fourth behind Higgins, Seán Gallagher and Martin McGuinness, winning only 6 per cent of the vote, did that really have any lasting political impact on Fine Gael? Not really. 'If there isn't a political penalty for doing badly, then that makes it more likely we run someone,' the source says. But who? Applications are invited. Knowledge of the political system required; but preferably someone who can be above politics. Who people will admire at home and believe represents them well abroad. A very thorough background check will be required. Deadline for applications: August 31st. Apply: Micheál Martin, Government Buildings, Dublin 2. Canvassing will most certainly not disqualify. Is Conor McGregor really the only person who wants to be President of Ireland? Listen | 19:19

Paul Coulson faces last stand in battle to retain control of Ardagh
Paul Coulson faces last stand in battle to retain control of Ardagh

Irish Times

time4 hours ago

  • Irish Times

Paul Coulson faces last stand in battle to retain control of Ardagh

Ten years ago last month, Dublin businessman Paul Coulson walked away from a €3 billion deal to buy a glass-bottle business being sold by French building materials group Saint-Gobain. It seemed a rare moment of restraint for a man in a hurry, having spent the previous 15 years turning a once sleepy Irish bottle company into a multibillion-euro packaging giant – Ardagh Group – through a series of purchases funded by debt raised in the high-cost, junk-bond market. It would not last long. Less than a year later, Coulson unveiled a similar-sized transaction, but one that would catapult Ardagh into the business of making cans for beers and fizzy drinks. Today, that business – Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP), whose customers range from Coca-Cola and Heineken to Nestlé – has surfaced as a prized asset as Coulson and holders of some of wider group's $12.5 billion (€10.7 billion) of borrowings scramble to salvage what they can from an empire saddled with too much debt. Coulson effectively owns 36 per cent of Ardagh Group. READ MORE Ardagh Group has acknowledged for more than a year that it needs to reduce its liabilities, after both its glass and beverage cans businesses had been hit since the Covid-19 pandemic by inflation, soaring interest rates, and soft consumer demand on both sides of the Atlantic. The heavily-indebted business proposed in March that a group of senior unsecured bondholders write off much of the $2.32 billion they are owed in exchange for taking full ownership of the glass containers part of the business. The plan also envisaged Ardagh Group spinning its shares in AMP into new company (NewCo). This would be 80 per cent owned by Coulson and other existing Ardagh Group shareholders – with the unsecured creditors receiving the remaining 20 per cent. Holders of a further $1.79 billion of the group's riskiest debt, so-called payment-in-kind bonds issued by a holding company at the top of the Ardagh corporate tree, know they're toast, with these notes trading below 5 per cent of their original value. Talks with the unsecured creditors broke down in May after they pitched a proposal that would see them take 40 per cent, rather than 20 per cent, of AMP, which has seen its prospects improve in recent quarters, even as the glass containers arm of the group continues to grapple with weak demand. The unsecured creditors also wanted the $784 million of preference shares they were being offered in the NewCo to be increased to $1.07 billion. AMP, in which Ardagh Group has a 76 per cent stake, is listed on Wall Street, where investors have also recently come to appreciate the improving outlook for this business – even as the glass side struggles. The market value of AMP, which has $3.98 billion of ring-fenced borrowings, has jumped more than 45 per cent to $2.59 billion so far this year. This was driven by a spike in April when its chief, Oliver Graham, signalled that the business had 'turned a corner', helped by a rebound in demand for energy drinks, sparkling water and health segments. The value of Coulson's indirect 27 per cent stake in AMP has increased as a result to more than $700 million. This is well off the $1.7 billion it was worth when the stock debuted on the New York Stock Exchange almost four years ago. It is also a fraction of the now 73-year-old's €2.4 billion interest in the wider Ardagh Group when it peaked in April 2021 – before the group delisted and floated its beverage cans unit. It emerged last week that certain bondholders have offered Coulson – who remains on the board of the group, having retired as chairman in late 2023 – and other investors in Ardagh Group $250 million to hand over total control of the empire to creditors and walk away. Shareholders include management and investors that remained on board a tiny version of the current group that was listed in Dublin more than two decades ago. The bondholders clearly do not feel the need to keep Coulson on after a restructuring. This differs from the case of fellow former junk-bond darling, Denis O'Brien , when his overindebted Digicel mobile phone company ran out of road two years ago. Digicel had no equity value when its bondholders took control in a subsequent debt-for-equity swap. However, the creditors left O'Brien with a 10 per cent stake and stock warrants that would entitle him to a further 10 per cent, subject to the company meeting certain targets, knowing they needed him to maintain key relationships with regulators and politicians across its 25 emerging and, in some cases, frontier markets. The problem for Ardagh Group bondholders is the corporate web structure – including a company set up in April 2022, at a time when interest rates were soaring globally, under the group to hold its 76 per cent stake in AMP. This was designated a so-called unrestricted subsidiary, putting its assets out of reach of group creditors. The directors of that subsidiary sought fit last year to set up another unit to hold the prized asset. Bondholders thinking they can wave off Coulson and a small number of legacy investors in Ardagh Group with a $250 million check had better have the bottle for a battle.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store