The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their own headaches
Democrats still face an uphill battle. They need to net four seats to retake the majority, and most of the 2026 contests are in states that Republican President Donald Trump easily won last November.
But Democrats see reasons for hope in Republicans' challenges. They include a nasty primary in Texas that could jeopardize a seat Republicans have held for decades. In North Carolina and Georgia, the GOP still lacks a clear field of candidates. Trump's influence dials up the uncertainty as he decides whether to flex his influential endorsement to stave off intraparty fights.
Republicans stress that it remains early in the election cycle and say there is still plenty of time for candidates to establish themselves and Trump to wade in. The president, said White House political director James Blair, has been working closely with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.
'I won't get ahead of the president but look, him and leader Thune have been very aligned. I expect them to be aligned and work closely.' he said.
Trump's timing, allies say, also reflects the far more disciplined approach by him and his political operation, which are determined for Republicans to gain seats in both the Senate and the House.
Here's what's happening in some key Senate races:
An ugly Texas brawl
Democrats have long dreamed of winning statewide office in this ruby red state. Could a nasty GOP primary be their ticket?
National Republicans and GOP Senate strategists are ringing alarm bells amid concerns that state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is facing a bevy of personal and ethical questions, could prevail over Sen. John Cornyn for the nomination.
They fear Paxton would be a disastrous general election candidate, forcing Republicans to invest tens of millions of dollars they believe would be better spent in other states.
Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super political action committee supporting Cornyn, a onetime Trump critic, began airing television ads this past week promoting his support for Trump's package of tax breaks and spending cuts.
Don't expect the upbeat tone from the pro-Cornyn super PAC to hold long. Paxton was acquitted after a Republican-led impeachment trial in 2023 over allegations of bribery and abuse of office, which also exposed an extramarital affair. His wife, Angela, filed for divorce on July 10, referring to 'recent discoveries' in announcing her decision to end her marriage of 38 years 'on biblical grounds.'
'Ken Paxton has embarrassed himself, his family, and we look forward to exposing just how bad he's embarrassed our state in the coming months," said Aaron Whitehead, the super PAC's executive director. Trump adviser Chris LaCivita, who comanaged Trump's 2024 campaign, is advising the group.
But Cornyn has had a cool relationship with Trump over the years, while Paxton is a longtime Trump ally. And Paxton raised more than three times as much as Cornyn in the second quarter, $2.9 million compared with $804,000, according to Federal Elections Commission reports.
Rep. Wesley Hunt is also weighing a run.
Will Trump be persuaded to endorse or will he choose to steer clear?
Will North Carolina have a Trump on the ballot?
The surprise retirement announcement by two-term Sen. Thom Tillis has set off a frenzied search for a replacement in a state widely seen as Democrats' top pickup opportunity. He had repeatedly clashed with Trump, including over Medicaid changes in the tax cut bill, leading the president to threaten to back a primary challenger.
All eyes are now on Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law, who is mulling whether to run in her home state as other potential candidates stand by.
A familiar national Republican face as co-chair of the Republican National Committee during Trump's 2024 campaign, Lara Trump is now a Fox News Channel host. She also had been a visible surrogate during previous campaigns, often promoting her North Carolina roots and the fact that she named her daughter Carolina.
Having a Trump on the ballot could boost a party that has struggled to motivate its most fervent base when Donald Trump is not running. But Lara Trump currently lives in Florida and has so far sounded muted on the prospect of a Senate run.
Other potential contenders include RNC chair Michael Whatley, who led North Carolina's GOP before taking the national reins and is considered a strong fundraiser and Trump loyalist, and first-term Reps. Pat Harrigan and Brad Knott. While Lara Trump and Whatley are better known nationally, Harrigan is a West Point graduate and Knott is a former federal prosecutor.
Democrats are waiting on a decision from former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper, who is seen as a formidable candidate by both parties in a state Trump carried by just 3.2 percentage points last year. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel has entered the race, but it's unclear what he would do if Cooper ran.
In Georgia, a pickup opportunity with no candidate yet
Republicans see Georgia and the seat held by Democrat Jon Ossoff as one of their best pickup opportunities. But the party remains in search of a well-known challenger after failing to persuade term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp to run.
A growing potential field includes Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins and Rich McCormick, Insurance Commissioner John King and Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach. The president is still meeting with possible candidates and is expected by many to wait to weigh in until his team has fully screened them and assessed their chances and after his budget priorities make their way through Congress.
Ossoff took in more than $10 million in the second quarter of the year, according to federal filings, after raising $11 million from January through March. He ended June with more than $15.5 million cash on hand.
That money will matter in what is sure to be an expensive general election. The Senate races in 2020, when Ossoff and Raphael Warnock narrowly won and flipped control to Democrats, cost more than $900 million combined.
Michigan GOP waits on Trump
Republicans hope the retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and a crowded, expensive Democratic primary will help them capture a seat that has eluded them for more than three decades. Here, too, all eyes are on Trump.
Republicans are rallying around former Rep. Mike Rogers, who came within 20,000 votes in 2024 against then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin and had Trump's endorsement. Rogers now appears to have momentum behind him, with the support of Thune, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and former Trump campaign veterans LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio.
But other Republicans could complicate things. Rep. Bill Huizenga has said he is waiting for guidance from the president on whether he should run.
'When people are asking why haven't you announced or what are you going to do, it's like, look, I want to get the man's input, all right?' Huizenga told reporters last month. A spokesperson for Huizenga added that the congressman has spoken to Trump on the phone multiple times and has yet to be told not to run.
Still, White House officials have on more than one occasion encouraged Huizenga to stay in the House, according to one person familiar with the conversations who was not authorized to publicly discuss the private discussions and spoke only on condition of anonymity.
Democrats have their own messy primary, with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow up against Rep. Haley Stevens, state Rep. Joe Tate, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.
They were pleased to see that, even without any declared challengers, Rogers' main campaign account raised just $745,000 during the second quarter, lagging Huizenga and several Democrats. (He brought in another nearly $779,000 through a separate joint fundraising committee.) McMorrow, by comparison, raised more than $2.1 million.
In Louisiana, another Trump antagonist faces voters
Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy has faced scrutiny from his party, in no small part for his 2021 vote to convict Trump after the president's second impeachment. Will Trump seek retribution against the two-term senator or ultimately back him?
Though Cassidy already faces two primary challengers, Louisiana is a reliably Republican state, which Trump won last year by 22 percentage points. Democrats are hoping a strong contender — potentially former Gov. John Bel Edwards, who has attracted Republican votes in the past — might mount a competitive challenge.
Republicans are awaiting word on whether Rep. Julia Letlow will run. In May, Gov. Jeff Landry and Trump privately discussed the two-term congresswoman entering the race.
Letlow and Landry appeared together at a congressional fundraiser for her in Lafayette, outside her northeast Louisiana district, on June 30, fueling speculation about her plans.
The governor's discussion with Trump of a new challenger to Cassidy reflects the Trump base's unease with Cassidy, not simply over the impeachment vote, but also Cassidy's concerns about installing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the nation's health secretary. Cassidy ultimately backed Kennedy, a move some saw as an effort to ease tensions.
Among Cassidy's Republican challengers so far are state Treasurer John Fleming and state Sen. Blake Miguez. Letlow, serving in the seat her husband held before he died of COVID-19, is considered a rising star in the Louisiana GOP.
A wavering incumbent in Iowa
Two-term Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has not said whether she plans to seek a third term.
Ernst would be expected to win in the state Trump carried by 13 percentage points last year. But she has come under some criticism from Iowa Republicans, including for saying she needed to hear more from Trump's pick for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, before committing to support his nomination amid allegations of sexual assault that Hegseth denied.
The senator, a combat veteran and sexual assault survivor, eventually voted to confirm him.
Though a final decision awaits, Ernst has named a 2026 campaign manager and has scheduled her annual Iowa fundraiser for October.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Los Angeles Times
10 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
Trump protesters take part in Indivisible movement rally along PCH in Orange County
Stationing themselves on all four corners of the intersection of Coast Highway and Jamboree Road in Newport Beach early Saturday afternoon, more than 300 people organized by a political action group peacefully demonstrated against the Trump administration. Toting two large flags attached to a metal pole, demonstrator Christopher Holland, who identified himself as a former border patrol agent as well as a Marine Corps veteran, stood atop a large rock in the center of Bayview Park during the protest. 'Kidnapping people while wearing masks compounds the their criminality,' Holland said of the raids by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents who keep their faces covered while carrying out their operations. 'The deliberate concealing of a law enforcement officer's identity is a police state,' he said. He and his wife, Vera, said they attend rallies such as Saturday's for the people who are either unable to be there themselves or are fearful of repercussions. 'This is just disturbing, the lack of due process, the criminality is upsetting to see and trying to re-write history,' Vera Holland, a former insurance investigator, said of the ICE raids that have upended Orange County households and businesses. 'These are all steps toward authoritarianism and fascism.' Those assembled were participating in the PCH Day of Action hosted by Indivisible CA 47, the local chapter of a social movement that aims, according to its website, 'to create a strong community in Orange County, California, where we work together to retain current Democratic representation in Congress, and fight to flip GOP seats from Red to Blue.' Communities that lie within California Congressional District 47, currently represented by Democrat Dave Min, include Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Costa Mesa, Irvine, Laguna Beach, parts of Laguna Hills and Laguna Woods. According to Day of Action organizer Laura Oatman, positioning along Pacific Coast Highway provides high visibility and may open the door for those who aren't politically active to get involved and let their voices be heard. 'Driving down PCH they see us and take notice,' said Oatman. 'It gives people hope when they may be feeling drowned out with negative news.' Fountain Valley resident Tonya Crane waved a large flag depicting the late U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg in one hand while also loudly ringing a brass bell as cars sped through the intersection. 'I came out to the 'No Kings' [rally on June 14] and the feeling of community was so strong I wanted to come out again,' Crane said. ''No Kings' was my first protest ever, and I'm 56 years old.' Newport Beach resident Bill Blanning said he was participating in his fifth rally. 'I'm out here because I believe that Trump is destroying our city, our infrastructure, our values and everything we stand for as a country,' said Blanning, who was waving an American flag to show support for this country. 'We've diminished our standing in the world [and] we've weakened our institutions,' he said. Judy Stephens, who joined other protesters for the Newport Beach demonstration said she has been attending rallies in Irvine, where she lives, on a consistent basis. 'Ever since 9/11, I started paying attention to what's going on in the world,' Stephens said. 'I couldn't not be involved, with the way Trump has been allowed to run amok.'
USA Today
40 minutes ago
- USA Today
Trump celebrates 6-month mark in office, touts US as 'most respected country' in the world
President Donald Trump celebrated the six-month mark of his second White House term by declaring that the United States has become the "hottest" and the "most respected" country in the world. "Wow, time flies!" he wrote on Truth Social on July 20. "Importantly, it's being hailed as one of the most consequential periods of any President. In other words, we got a lot of good and great things done, including ending numerous wars of Countries not related to us other than through Trade and/or, in certain cases, friendship." He added: "'One year ago our Country was DEAD, with almost no hope of revival. Today the USA is the 'hottest' and most respected Country anywhere in the World.' Happy Anniversary!!!" Trump's second term has been met with several challenges, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which he said he would end. The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza also rages on, alongside ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire and secure the release of hostages. In a separate post, Trump also talked about his poll numbers "going up" among Republicans and MAGA base and claimed they "hit 90%, 92%, 93%, and 95%, in various polls, and are all Republican Party records." At the same time, a couple of recent polls showed Trump's overall approval rate dropping. A recent Economist/YouGov poll, conducted from July 11 to July 14, showed 41% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of Trump's job performance, while 55% strongly or somewhat disapprove. The results, according to the survey, are the "largest share of Americans who have disapproved of Trump's job performance so far in his second term as president." Another poll, released July 20 by CBS/YouGov, placed Trump's approval rating at 42%, with disapproval at 58%. The survey previously found Trump's approval rating was 45% in June and 47% in mid-April. Trump's on a roll. Why isn't he smiling? Answer: Jeffrey Epstein Democratic leadership is not buying Trump's self-assessment Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin was critical of Trump's self-assessment, adding that every American needs to ask themselves if they are better off than they were six months ago. 'Unless you're a billionaire or a big CEO, the answer is no," he said in a statement. "In six months, Donald Trump has skyrocketed prices for basic necessities, sparked an erratic trade war with no end in sight, and orchestrated the largest cuts to health care and food assistance in American history. As Trump's reckless trade agenda forces small businesses to plan for recession, working families are drowning in sky-high energy, gas, and grocery prices." Contributing: Kathryn Palmer
The Hill
40 minutes ago
- The Hill
ICE head says agency to crack down on American companies hiring unauthorized workers
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) acting director Todd Lyons said in an interview that aired Sunday that his agency will crack down on American companies hiring unauthorized workers. 'Not only are we focused on those individuals that are, you know, working here illegally, we're focused on these American companies that are actually exploiting these laborers,' Lyons said on CBS News's 'Face the Nation.' 'These people that came here for a better life. You know, either, you know, forced labor, child trafficking, you know, a lot of these work site cases — just isn't a victimless crime of someone here working illegally,' he added. 'And that's why we're going there with these criminal warrants to focus on these American businesses that are trying to make an extra dollar on the backs of these people that came here for a better life.' In the first few months of his second term, President Trump and his administration have heavily cracked down on immigration, drawing criticism from Democrats and advocates. On Sunday, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) criticized the Trump administration's reasoning for allowing ICE officers to wear masks as a way to protect themselves and their families from retaliation. 'Well, first of all, let me just tell you that the masked men are not from Los Angeles, and so how their families could be retaliated against,' Bass said on 'Face the Nation.' 'And then what is that to say to local law enforcement, the Los Angeles Police Department, none of whom are ever masked, who always identify themselves and even hand someone a business card. So that makes absolutely no sense at all,' she added.
