&w=3840&q=100)
Bitcoin tops $108k before pullback amid options expiry; altcoins retreat
Bitcoin was trading at around $107,397.18, down 0.21 per cent, with a 24-hour trading volume of $48.34 billion, at 11:22 AM on Friday, June 27, 2025, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency fluctuated between $106,519.66 and $108,190.55 during the same period. Bitcoin's market capitalisation stood at approximately $2.13 trillion, maintaining its position as the most valuable digital asset.
Analysts see resistance at $108k levels
For Bitcoin, Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus Crypto Platform, believes that there is likely to be some downward pressure, with $105,000 serving as a key support level. "Bitcoin should rally strongly early next week with the US Fed indicating three further interest rate cuts in 2025. Altcoins have not shown strength in the last 2 days, with Bitcoin dominance hitting a new yearly high around 66 per cent," said Subburaj. Till this metric reverses to 62 per cent, Subburaj suggests investors are better off holding a Bitcoin majority in their crypto portfolios. Edul Patel, Co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, on the other hand, remains optimistic and said that Bitcoin is trading steadily above $107,100 after testing resistance at $108,000, a key level where both buyers and sellers are actively engaged.
"If the buyers maintain conviction, we could see seller liquidity absorbed around $108k, setting the stage for a potential breakout. The market sentiment remains strong, supported by regulatory progress like the Senate Banking Committee's aim to pass digital asset market structure legislation by September," said Patel. Additionally, the weakening Dollar Index continues to bring capital into the market.
For the flagship currency, Patel sees the support at current levels lies at $106,000.
Ethereum, and other altcoins retreat
Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, briefly surpassed the $2,500 level but failed to hold gains. It was last quoted at $2,451.87, down 0.98 percent, with a trading volume of $1.7 billion. Ethereum's 24-hour price range stood between $2,386.32 and $2,500.11.
Other major cryptocurrencies were also under pressure. Hyperliquid (HYPE) was trading about 1 percent lower, while Cardano (ADA) declined by 2.12 percent. Solana (SOL) dropped 2.78 percent, Binance Coin (BNB) edged lower by 0.20 percent, and Ripple (XRP) fell by 4 percent. Meanwhile, the US dollar-pegged stablecoin Tether (USDT) remained flat at $1.
Ripple (XRP), Biswap (BSW), Wormhole (W), Solana (SOL), and AICell (AICELL) were among the top trending cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap on Friday.
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Mint
22 minutes ago
- Mint
ETFs are eating the world. The right—and wrong—ways to invest.
A few months ago, you needed big bucks to tap the opaque world of private credit. Not anymore—thanks to the magic of exchange-traded funds. Firms like Apollo Global Management have long dominated the private-credit space, traditionally requiring at least $250,000 or a high net worth to access its funds. But Apollo recently teamed up with State Street to launch the SPDR SSGA IG Public & Private Credit ETF. State Street, which is managing the fund, said it's 'democratizing access to private markets." Since it's an ETF, which trades like a stock, anyone with an account at, say, Robinhood or Fidelity can now buy a sliver of Apollo's $600 billion private-credit portfolio. Apollo is hardly the only firm using ETFs to drum up business. Wall Street has ETF fever. Firms are now packaging just about everything in the funds, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, leveraged bets on individual stocks like Nvidia, and even bonds that would pay out sharply if a natural catastrophe strikes. All of it has led to a Cambrian fund explosion. More than 4,000 ETFs are listed on the New York Stock Exchange—compared with just 2,400 individual stocks. Fund companies launched more than 700 ETFs last year, including 33 that track cryptocurrencies, more than 130 'buffered" ETFs, and dozens of ETFs that magnify bets on indexes like the S&P 500 or stocks like Nvidia and Palantir Technologies. Most of the new ETFs are small and nichey, holding less than $100 million in assets each, and dozens of ETFs shut down every year after failing to catch on. But the industry is still raking in assets. ETFs have taken in over $2 trillion of net inflows over the past two years, bringing total assets to nearly $11 trillion. They now hold one out of every three dollars invested in long-term funds, excluding money markets. Some of the money flowing into ETFs has come out of traditional open-end mutual funds, which have lost $1.2 trillion due to outflows in the past two years. While investors are flocking to ETFs for their tax efficiency and other advantages, ETFs are also tackling mutual funds where it really hurts: active management. More than $1 trillion now sits in active ETFs that trade stocks and other securities. Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF is a prominent example. But there are now more than 1,300 active ETFs, including funds from big companies like T. Rowe Price Group, GMO, and JPMorgan Chase. Bond manager Pimco alone has amassed $31 billion in fixed-income ETFs. The deluge shows no signs of letting up. President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans are laying the groundwork to deregulate financial markets, make crypto mainstream—including stablecoins from companies like Circle Internet Group—and open the $12 trillion world of private equity and credit to the broader public. Hundreds of new ETFs are awaiting a go-ahead at the Securities and Exchange Commission, including around 70 new crypto ETFs and plenty of active stock-picking ones. The flood of ETFs raises questions for investors: Should you buy any of the new ones, stick with basic index funds, or use a mix? With so many products, there is a lot to learn, especially about novel funds that employ aggressive strategies or aim to expand the ETF empire to new frontiers. Here's how to get the most out of ETFs—and avoid the pitfalls. Launched in the early 1990s, ETFs were initially designed to track popular stock indexes like the S&P 500. The $600 billion SPDR S&P 500 Trust, launched in 1993, remains one of the largest ETFs, and most of the industry's assets are still concentrated in funds that track major indexes, sectors, and foreign markets. The top four ETF issuers—Vanguard, BlackRock's iShares, Invesco, and State Street—control $9 trillion in assets, staking a commanding lead over everyone else. Just below the giants is a long and growing tail of ETFs snaking through every market crevice. Investors who want exposure to oil, for instance, gravitate to the U.S. Oil Fund. The SPDR Gold Shares is the leading choice for the precious metal. In crypto, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF has become the biggest of the bunch, holding $75 billion in assets. Regardless of what they own, most ETFs owe their popularity to convenience, low costs, and tax efficiency. A big difference from mutual funds is intraday liquidity. You can buy or sell ETFs like a stock. Orders for mutual funds, by contrast, are priced once at the 4 p.m. market close. Liquidity is a big reason ETFs are so widely used by hedge funds, and it can be helpful if there's a big market move and you want to sell a position quickly. Crucially, most ETFs are more tax-efficient than mutual funds. While the details are complicated, ETF portfolio managers are rarely obliged to sell underlying shares of a stock or other asset. Instead, they continuously work with trading firms to swap holdings and shares as needed. Under normal market circumstances, the process keeps a fund's net asset value aligned with its holdings, avoiding the added complexity of closed-end funds, which often trade at wide discounts or premiums. These arcane details of ETFs have big tax consequences, since security swaps, unlike sales, don't register capital gains to a fund. That means ETF investors typically don't have capital-gains tax bills until they sell their shares, avoiding a big hassle (and expense) of traditional mutual funds, which have to distribute a portfolio's gains each year. ETFs can also be extremely low cost, though fees creep up for products using bespoke strategies. The average annual management ETF fee is below 0.16%, according to Morningstar, less than half the 0.4% average charged by mutual funds. Among active stock ETFs, fees average 0.42%, still well below the 0.57% average for active equity mutual funds. Firms launched more than 500 active ETFs last year, accounting for 70% of new launches and 25% of flows, according to research firm Trackinsight. Many of the new products involve niche strategies, such as buffered ETFs, which use options to give investors exposure to the stock market while capping gains and losses. Firms like Fidelity and T. Rowe Price have dabbled in active ETFs, but they remain quite small; T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equity, the firm's largest ETF, with $4.6 billion in assets, hit the market in 2023. It was designed to build on the success of the storied T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation mutual fund, which remains an order of magnitude larger, with $66 billion. Fund companies don't want to cannibalize their mutual funds with lower-cost ETFs. But they may be now be more inclined to launch copycats, thanks partly to an obscure patent expiration. Vanguard, which held the patent until 2023, no longer has a lock on creating ETFs by simply creating an additional share class of an existing fund. Nearly 60 fund firms have filed with the SEC to launch funds following Vanguard's approach, with approvals expected to start this year. 'There's no question the ETF share class structure will be a game-changer," says Nate Geraci, an investment advisor and president of the ETF Store. Whether to own an active ETF comes down to the same issues that plague mutual funds: The vast majority underperform their benchmarks long term, and finding consistent winners is devilishly hard. Consider the rise and fall of Wood's ARK Innovation ETF, known by its ticker, ARKK. Soaring more than 150% in 2020, the fund raked in assets, reaching a peak of $28 billion. But as money flowed in, Wood gravitated to larger-cap stocks and performance fizzled; the fund lost 75% of its value in 2021 and 2022 and has underperformed the Nasdaq Composite by more than 100 percentage points over the past five years. While the Nasdaq's five-year cumulative return is 108%, ARKK's is minus 2%. ARK Investment Management President Tom Staudt says changes in the fund's composition were the result of mergers in tech and gains for ARKK's holdings. Beyond stock ETFs, the rest of the industry's assets sit in everything from bonds and commodities to crypto and other alternatives. Bond ETFs now hold nearly $2 trillion in assets. The biggest ones—Vanguard Total Bond Market and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond—track the U.S. market, holding Treasuries and other U.S. government bonds, along with investment-grade corporate debt. They can be solid core holdings for investors who use bonds to diversify their portfolio. Fixed-income ETFs also delve into everything from high-yield 'junk" to preferred securities and municipal bonds. Several of them have a long record of beating indexes. Top performers from Pimco, for instance, include Pimco Active Bond and Intermediate Municipal Bond Active. One can also find solid ETFs for Treasury inflation-protected securities, such as JPMorgan Inflation Managed Bond, and in high yield with the VanEck Fallen Angel High Yield Bond. Granted, bond ETFs can have structural flaws. Many individual bonds trade infrequently, especially outside highly liquid Treasury markets. As a result, the ETFs, which may own thousands of securities, rely on mathematical models to estimate their underlying value in real time. In times of market stress, ETF share prices and theoretical values have diverged. In March 2020, during the early days of Covid, the $30 billion iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF closed more than 5% below the estimated value of its portfolio during the trading day. If something like that happens again, it's best to wait until the market stabilizes—which usually happens quickly—before buying or selling, says Aniket Ullal, head of ETF Research at CFRA. 'The models can be a little bit stale," he says, and share prices will eventually converge to underlying holdings. Similar issues arise in ETFs aiming to track commodities, crypto, and other alternatives, as their markets aren't always liquid or transparent and ETF companies use workarounds. Commodity ETFs, for instance, generally hold futures contracts to track things like oil and copper. In most cases, futures substitute for the real thing because it isn't practical to own, say, millions of bushels of corn. Commodity futures are imperfect, though. Because prices for oil futures often drift above or below spot prices, the USO Oil Fund's returns frequently deviate from oil spot price returns. In 2020, Covid-fueled dislocations led near-month oil futures to briefly trade at negative prices. USO lost 75% of its value in the first five months of that year. USO experienced a 'black swan event" in 2020, says Katie Rooney, chief marketing officer at USCF Investments, the fund's sponsor. 'Nevertheless, we made an extra effort to communicate with investors at the time, and USO continued to meet its investment objective." One way around the futures problem is for a fund to be structured like a trust and take ownership of the commodity. While it doesn't work for commodities like oil or copper, it does for gold. The $101 billion SPDR Gold Shares owns gold bars sitting in a vault, and the ETF's price directly corresponds to the value of the bullion. Crypto is a new and untested class of ETFs. The first wave used futures and other derivatives to track Bitcoin, but the SEC in 2024 allowed ETFs to track spot prices and own tokens directly in digital vaults, creating Bitcoin 'trusts." If you're going to invest, stick with the largest and most liquid ETFs backed by blue-chip firms. That would include the iShares Bitcoin Trust and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin fund. Crypto ETFs are rapidly moving beyond Bitcoin. The second-largest token, Ethereum, now has 20 ETFs tracking its moves, including funds like iShares Ethereum Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust. More crypto ETFs are seeking approval from the SEC, tracking tokens like Litecoin, XRP, and Solana, as well as more playful ideas like Dogecoin, Bonkcoin, and even President Trump's personal meme coin. Not all of these will see the light of day, but a Trump-backed SEC is expected to be far more amenable than the agency was under President Joe Biden's SEC chair, Gary Gensler. 'I think you'll sense SEC staff trying to work with the ETF industry to facilitate new types of products, to facilitate innovation," says Brian Murphy, a former SEC attorney and partner at Stradley Ronon. Private assets are also showing up in ETF wrappers, including venture-backed companies that have yet to go public. The ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF, for example, has nearly 10% of its assets in Elon Musk's SpaceX, along with stakes in private companies such as Klarna and Anduril. Bear in mind that these ETFs provide watered-down access to private securities. Industry rules limit ETFs to holding 15% in private, illiquid assets, and the funds tend to be padded with publicly traded stocks or other securities. The ERShares ETF has more than 80% of its assets in familiar Big Tech names like Nvidia, Oracle, and Meta Platforms. One risk: Private assets are opaque and their values are based on educated guesses rather than broad market price discovery. The ERShares ETF's website pegs SpaceX's value at $185 a share, the same as in December, despite a public feud between Musk and Trump, which hit Musk's other big company, Tesla, hard. The ETF's stakes in SpaceX and other private holdings are also held in a special-purpose vehicle, which charges fees that aren't disclosed to investors. 'We will price SpaceX or Klarna up or down when there is clear evidence the price has changed" or when a 'consensus" price event such as a tender offer emerges, says fund manager Joel Shulman. Whether ETFs can be jury-rigged for private investments is debatable. And investors are taking a leap of faith about how they might trade in a crisis. The SPDR SSGA IG Public & Private Credit ETF has a contract with Apollo as a trading partner, guaranteeing that the ETF will always have at least one place to buy and sell. Whether Apollo would buy back the ETF's assets at full price or a deep discount in a crisis situation isn't known. 'As much as I champion ETFs, not every asset class belongs in an ETF, and I would suggest private credit might fit into that category," says Geraci. Few ETFs are riskier than those using leverage (or borrowed money) to magnify price movements in indexes or individual stocks. Not only is there more daily volatility, but investors won't come close to the returns of a double- or triple-digit move in a stock or index long term. Consider the recent performance of ProShares ETFs designed to magnify bullish and bearish bets on the Nasdaq 100. The UltraPro QQQ is designed to triple the index's daily return, rising 3% on a day when Nasdaq 100 is up 1%. The UltraPro Short QQQ aims to deliver the reverse, rising 3% when the index falls 1%. The Nasdaq 100 has managed to deliver a 8.4% total return year to date. The ProShares 3x long ETF is up 5.5% and the 3x short ETF is down 35.5%. What gives? The funds are designed for single-day movements, and beyond that, all bets are off. A phenomenon known as 'volatility drag" tends to kill their returns over longer periods, especially in rocky markets. ProShares declined to comment. Such complexity has earned leveraged ETFs a bevy of critics. 'I don't think anyone should own them," says Bryan Armour, Morningstar's director of ETF and passive strategies research for North America. As a group, the funds now hold nearly $120 billion in assets, and leveraged ETFs have expanded to single stocks, including eight ETFs pegged to Nvidia alone. Steer clear unless you're a trader with a strong stomach. While the ETF world includes some wild beasts, the place to start is with low-cost index funds as the core of your portfolio. The Vanguard Total World Stock ETF, for instance, owns a portfolio of U.S., developed country, and emerging market stocks for an annual fee of just 0.06%. The Vanguard Total World Bond ETF offers a similar play on fixed income. Using them in combination can give you a full slate of U.S. and international stocks and bonds in just two funds. Investors who want to go deeper can check out the Select Sector SPDR ETFs that break the S&P 500 into 11 industries, including tech and energy. If you are more interested in dividends, take a look at the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF or, for a slightly different take, ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, which targets companies that have paid and raised dividends for the past 25 years. When shopping for ETFs, follow some simple rules, says Herb Morgan, chief investment officer of Cantor Fitzgerald Managed ETF Portfolios. Stick with funds that track liquid assets and use established index funds, not 'gimmicky" ETFs developed to sell a product. While newer funds boast back-tested performance that might look good, he notes, investors shouldn't expect it to last, given the long history of most funds falling behind major indexes. The oldest and simplest advice is still the best: 'All things being equal, go for the low price," Morgan says. Write to Ian Salisbury at
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Business Standard
an hour ago
- Business Standard
Bitcoin surges to $110,500 before consolidation; Ethereum gains momentum
Bitcoin price today, Friday, July 4, 2025: The flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), briefly reclaimed $110,500 levels, merely1.2 per cent shy of its all-time high levels, on Friday before retreating as the selling pressure emanated from the stronger-than-expected US jobs data, which dampened hopes of an imminent interest rate cut by the US Fed. Bitcoin, however, has remained above the $109,000 mark as bulls maintain control despite brief selling pressure from US nonfarm payroll data, said analysts. At last check, Bitcoin was trading at around $109,122.86, up 0.13 per cent, with a 24-hour trading volume of $48.43 billion, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The bellwether cryptocurrency fluctuated between $108,811.86 - $110,541.46 during the same period. Bitcoin's market capitalisation stood at approximately $2.16 trillion, maintaining its position as the most valuable digital asset. Notably, Bitcoin scaled its all-time high of $111,970 on May 22 this year. ETF inflows, macro factors to drive Bitcoin Bitcoin, Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus, said, is trading with sustained momentum driven by strong ETF inflows in the US. "A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has, however, dampened hopes of an imminent interest rate cut. This caught the market off-guard, with expectations now shifting towards a September rate cut rather than July," said Subburaj. Subburaj expects the flagship currency to consolidate below $112,000 for a while until macro and trade conditions improve. Altcoins, he said, will outperform Bitcoin as long as it stays above $108,000. That said, the data from The Block reveals that 98.9 per cent of Bitcoin holders are currently profitable (In The Money). "Such a high percentage 'In the Money,' reflects strong market confidence, suggesting an extended rally," said Edul Patel, Co-founder and CEO of Mudrex. Ethereum gains momentum, altcoins mixed Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) was also gaining traction, with whales accumulating over 800,000 ETH. Last check, it was seen trading around $2,573, higher by 0.12 per cent, with a 24-hour trading volume of $18.87 billion. Ethereum has fluctuated in the range of $2,566.99 - $2,635.19 in the last 24 hours. If ETH holds above $2,500, Patel believes that it may move toward $2,700, supported by rising institutional interest and improving on-chain dynamics. Among the other major popular cryptocurrencies Sui (SUI) was trading higher by 3 per cent, and Binance Coin (BNB) by 0.11 per cent, while, Hyperliquid (HYPE) was trading lower by 2 per cent, Cardano (ADA) declined by 0.15 per cent. Solana (SOL) traded lower by 1.24 per cent, and Ripple (XRP) by 0.63 per cent. Meanwhile, the US dollar-pegged stablecoin Tether (USDT) remained flat at $1.
Economic Times
2 hours ago
- Economic Times
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Deploy, don't delay! Arun Patel advises long-term investors to stay invested in 2H2025
As market volatility tapers and India's economic fundamentals remain robust, long-term investors should stay the course rather than wait on the sidelines, says Arun Patel, Founder & Partner at Arunasset Investment Services, in this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk. ADVERTISEMENT In a wide-ranging conversation, Patel shares his views on the market outlook for the second half of 2025, why domestic consumption remains a key theme, and how falling inflation and an accommodative RBI stance are creating a favourable environment for also outlines ideal asset allocation strategies for investors with a multi-decade horizon and highlights sectors like pharma, fintech, and quick commerce as emerging opportunities worth tracking. Edited Excerpts - Q) Thanks for taking the time out. We closed May on a high not but witnessed some volatility in June – is it geopolitical concerns weighing on sentiment?A) Thank you so much for having me. While June did see some volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel–Iran conflict and worries about a wider regional escalation, these concerns turned out to be short-lived. A ceasefire held, and crucially, Iran refrained from blocking the Strait of Hormuz, likely recognising that such a move would have punished Asian economies more than its intended targets of Israel and the US. As a result, oil prices have returned to levels seen before the initial strikes. On the domestic front, India's macro fundamentals remain highly supportive. GDP for January–March rose to 7.4%, beating estimates, while May CPI eased to 2.82%. Forex reserves are near $700 billion, among the world's highest. Q4 FY25 saw a modest earnings recovery compared to the previous two quarters, with the BSE 500 delivering high single-digit revenue growth and around 10% net profit growth. ADVERTISEMENT Notably, excluding oil and gas, the broader BSE 500 universe recorded strong underlying PAT growth of about 12–14%, supported by healthy performance in pharma and consumer sectors.Q) As we are about to end 1H2025, what are your expectations or assumptions for the rest of the year?A) As we move into the second half of 2025, we expect consumption to drive growth. With inflation cooling, real purchasing power should rise meaningfully. ADVERTISEMENT The RBI's June 2025 policy statement revised its FY 2025–26 inflation forecast down to 3.7% from 4.0%, and we believe actual inflation could average even lower, around 2.5% over the next six months. This creates space for further monetary support, enhancing household spending private investment may continue to lag, particularly with global FDI flows subdued amid persistent policy uncertainty in key economies. Shifting regulations and trade frictions could discourage large investment decisions. ADVERTISEMENT Fortunately, India's domestic investor base has shown resilience, with steady flows even through recent volatility, providing a structural cushion for see the second half as a 'stock pickers' market,' where company-specific fundamentals will matter more than broad macro narratives. Investors should be nimble, focusing on quality businesses across all market caps. ADVERTISEMENT Overall, given strong domestic demand and policy stability, we expect Indian equities to surpass last year's highs before the year ends. Q) Are there any new or existing themes that are likely to do well in 2H2025? A) We believe domestic consumption will remain a standout theme in the second half of 2025. With inflation easing — the RBI now projects retail inflation at 3.7% for FY 2025–26, and we see the potential for an even lower 2.5% average — real purchasing power is set to rise, supporting stronger household addition, pharmaceuticals offer selective opportunities. Several names in the sector are trading at attractive valuations, with healthy demand outlooks both domestically and in export terms of new sectors - India's evolving stock markets present compelling opportunities across innovation-driven sectors that could reshape long-term investment financial services, fintech platforms have doubled their active client share since December 2020, while a leading insurance technology company saw online policy sales surge 14 times between FY19 and rapid adoption of UPI has transformed payment systems, expanding access and enabling a more inclusive financial commerce is also experiencing remarkable growth, with gross merchandise value projected to rise sixfold by FY27, reflecting changing consumer preferences and demand for hyperlocal automobiles, design innovation is helping leading passenger vehicle manufacturers gain market share and enhance customer India's steadily rising defence capital expenditure highlights opportunities in cost-effective, indigenous production as the sector innovation has driven economic growth, and these emerging segments demonstrate how India's dynamic innovation ecosystem can reward forward-looking investors seeking sustainable, long-term value while participating in a transformative growth story. Q) Geopolitical concerns weighed on crude oil in the past few weeks. How do you see crude oil moving in the near future and what could be the possible impact on earnings and GDP growth? A) Consensus forecasts place Brent crude in a $60–70/bbl range by late 2025, with WTI slightly lower. Barring a major shock, most analysts see prices trending modestly lower as supply remains adequate and global demand growth geopolitical risks — particularly around Middle Eastern chokepoints — could still push prices well above India, a stable or softer crude trajectory is supportive. Lower oil prices help manage the current account, reduce subsidy burdens, and keep inflation in check, thereby boosting consumer sentiment and real purchasing the corporate side, cheaper crude benefits margin profiles for energy-intensive sectors such as paints, chemicals, transport, and cement. Broadly, lower oil acts like a tax cut for the economy, freeing up resources to sustain GDP growth absent a fresh geopolitical flare-up, we see crude oil as more likely to support than undermine India's growth and corporate earnings over the next two quarters. Q) In terms of valuation comfort – which sectors are on your radar? A) In the current environment, we see attractive valuation opportunities in domestic consumption and pharmaceuticals. India's strong high-frequency indicators and its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy make consumption-driven businesses especially pharma, several companies are trading at reasonable valuations with promising near-term growth prospects, supported by robust demand and favourable export broadly, the market appears to be transitioning from a macro-driven rally to a stock picker's phase. Correlations across sectors have been unusually high in recent quarters, but we believe we are approaching a turning point where company-specific fundamentals will take precedenceIn this scenario, bottom-up approaches — including focused mutual funds and other concentrated strategies — are well-placed to capture opportunities. Q) How are FIIs looking at India amid falling interest rates globally? A) As of 28 June 2025, Foreign Institutional Investors have recorded total equity outflows of around ₹1.23 lakh crore year-to-date, driven by global volatility and profit-booking earlier in the the tide has clearly begun to turn. FIIs have been net buyers for four consecutive months — March, April, May, and June — with June alone seeing net inflows of approximately ₹8,320 crore as of June total, FIIs have brought in about ₹23,000 crore across these four months, signaling renewed FIIs are favouring financials, energy, and select consumption plays, while remaining cautious on IT, auto, and FMCG due to global growth uncertainties and relatively rich market flows have moderated after a record ₹1.24 trillion of FPI purchases last year, as higher US yields and a firmer dollar weigh on India's robust macro fundamentals — 7%+ GDP growth, contained inflation, and stable policy — remain a powerful global strategists like Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs maintaining an 'overweight' on India and earnings growth forecasts of 14–17% through FY27, the improving FII trend should continue into H2 2025. Q) If someone plans to allocate say Rs 10 lakh (30-40 years) in 2H2025 – should they put fresh money to work? What is the ideal asset allocation? A) If someone aged between 30–40 is looking to invest Rs 10 lakh in the second half of 2025, it would generally make sense to deploy the funds rather than waiting on the a long investment horizon (20+ years until retirement, for example), equities tend to outperform other assets, and delaying can mean missing out on compounding.A reasonable asset allocation could be:• 70–80% in equities — spread across large-cap, flexicap, and some mid/small-cap funds to balance stability and growth• 20–30% in debt — such as high-quality debt funds, PPF, or tax-saving bonds to provide stability and liquidityIf the investor is new to equity investing, a staggered approach (for example, investing over 3–6 months via STP/SIP) can help manage market risk appetite, future financial commitments, and emergency reserves should be considered before finalising the allocation. Q) How is the rate trajectory looking from the RBI? Do you think the front-loaded 50 bps cut was enough to boost consumption? A) The RBI has shifted decisively toward an accommodative stance in 2025, cutting the repo rate by 100 basis points to 5.5% and announcing a 100 basis points CRR reduction from 4.5% to 3.5%, phased from front-loaded 50 bps repo cut was aimed at swiftly reducing borrowing costs for banks, which should translate into cheaper loans for households and businesses, encouraging lowering the CRR will release about ₹2.5 lakh crore into the banking system, expanding credit flow. With inflation relatively low, purchasing power is preserved, further supporting RBI's strong pivot recognises that consumption will be the key driver of economic growth in the near term, especially as investment may remain subdued due to policy uncertainties. While the 50-bps front-loaded cut should help, its impact will likely build gradually as confidence improves, and credit transmission strengthens over the coming quarters. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
