Powell, Lagarde weigh Trump's impact as global policy risks deepen

Business Standard

10 hours ago

The global economy's concussion from five months of Donald Trump's presidency is likely to feature when five of the world's leading central bank chiefs discuss monetary policy in public on Tuesday.
From tariff-related trade ructions to oil-price gyrations caused by Middle East hostilities, the question of how to handle the fallout from White House decisions may loom large as Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell speaks on a panel with peers from the euro zone, Japan, South Korea and the UK.
The high-powered gathering at the European Central Bank's annual retreat in Portugal will be the first time that its president, Christine Lagarde, has shared a stage for a public discussion with her US counterpart since the same event in 2024.
Back then, when they spoke alongside former Brazilian central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto, their discourse morphed into something resembling a group therapy session on the trials of setting interest rates at times of political stress — a premonition, in its own way, of the turbulence to come.
One year on, and at the halfway point of 2025, global policy is almost paralyzed by the need to navigate risks posed both to inflation and growth in the wake of Trump's actions — a challenge highlighted by the Bank for International Settlements in a report on Sunday.
Such a trade-off is faced by all the central bank chiefs who will speak on the panel in the hilltop resort of Sintra. Powell insisted on Tuesday that the Fed is in no rush to change rates, and earlier this month the Bank of England left borrowing costs on hold too.
What Bloomberg Economics Says: 'Quickening core inflation and slowing spending will keep the Fed uneasy, fueling debate about the appropriate number of rate cuts this year.'
The ECB itself, having just delivered a reduction, isn't ready to do any more for now, and the Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its benchmark unaltered at its July 31 meeting. The Bank of Korea is insisting on acting cautiously too.
In a podcast before this week's retreat, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane emphasized the panel as the highlight of the whole gathering, whose theme of 'Adapting to Change' seems something of an understatement.
'You do need to step back — rather than just talk about 'what are we going to do in July or September?' — to look at the underlying forces,' he said, before predicting that the central bank chiefs will deliver 'a very lively session.'
Elsewhere, US jobs, Chinese business surveys and euro-zone inflation numbers will be among the highlights.
Click here for what happened last week, and below is our wrap of what's coming up in the global economy.
US and Canada
Following fresh figures on Friday that showed American consumers are becoming somewhat fatigued, the US jobs report for June will offer clues about the strength of the labor market. Economists forecast employers added 113,000 jobs during the month, the fewest in four months yet still consistent with healthy labor demand.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics report is due Thursday, a day earlier than usual because of the Independence Day holiday. It's also forecast to show the unemployment rate crept up to 4.3%. For a Federal Reserve awaiting more clarity on the potential inflationary impact from tariffs, any pronounced deterioration in the labor market would likely lead to more pressure on officials to lower interest rates.
So far, there have been only scattered signs of cracks in the job market, including the highest number of recurring claims for jobless benefits since late 2021. A Labor Department report on Tuesday is expected to show little change in May job openings from a month earlier.
Canadian goods trade data for May will probably show a continued sharp decline in US exports, with shipments to other countries rising but not offsetting the loss of access to the American market. The first payments of Canada's digital services tax are due Monday, hitting major US tech firms with a 3% levy on their revenue from Canadian users above C$20 million.
Trump cited the tax as the reason for the US ending trade talks with Canada on Friday.
Asia
The week in Asia features a slew of PMI reports that will shed light on how regional economies are coping with elevated US tariffs.
China gets a pair of PMI releases, with the official gauge Monday expected to show that manufacturing activity remained contractionary for a third straight month in June as persistent deflation on top of trade tensions weighed on activity.
The next day sees the release of PMI figures for South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan and China's Caixin gauge.
The BOJ's Tankan survey, also on Tuesday, is forecast to show that large companies plan to boost capital investment by 10% this fiscal year.
Business sentiment among large manufacturers is expected to stay relatively upbeat, albeit at a lower level, while the gauge for non-manufacturers is seen staying close to the 34-year high set in the previous period.
May trade reports are due during the week from Australia, Indonesia, Thailand and Sri Lanka, while South Korea reports those figures for June.
South Korea also publishes consumer price statistics for June that may keep the Bank of Korea on track for another rate cut. Indonesia June CPI is also due.
Industrial output figures from South Korea, India and Japan, and Japanese household spending data will bookend the week.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
Inflation numbers will draw attention in the euro zone. Data on Monday may show consumer-price growth picked up in Germany and Italy, though not enough to worry the ECB. For the region as a whole, economists anticipate an outcome of 2% the following day, exactly at the goal targeted by policymakers.
Other than price reports, clues on how the region's manufacturing sector is faring amid Trump's tariff squeeze will also emerge. German factory orders, along with French and Spanish industrial production, will be published on Friday.
Aside from its Sintra seminars, the ECB itself will offer plenty of other news. The results of its strategy review are due on Monday, followed by the institution's own measure of inflation expectations the next day. On Thursday, an account of its June policy meeting will be released, revealing more on the decision to cut rates.
Beyond Sintra, ECB officials will be out in force at another economic gathering later in the week in Aix-en-Provence, in southern France.
On Monday, the Swiss National Bank will reveal how much foreign-exchange intervention it carried out during the first quarter. Switzerland's latest inflation numbers are scheduled for Thursday and may also draw interest from traders focused on the franc. Economists anticipate that consumer prices fell from a year earlier for a second month in June.
In the UK, a full breakdown of gross domestic product for the first quarter will be published on Monday. Appearances by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey in Sintra and Aix-en-Provence will also be highlights.
Away from Europe, South Africa's Bureau for Economic Research will release its second-quarter inflation expectations survey on Wednesday.
The report will be closely monitored by the central bank, which uses the two-year-ahead measure to inform its decisions. The bank aims to anchor expectations at the 4.5% midpoint of its target range, but is currently in discussions with the National Treasury to revise it lower.
In Turkey on Thursday, annual inflation is forecast to slow slightly to 35.2% in June from 35.4% the prior month. That may persuade the central bank to lower its main policy rate by at least 300 basis points to 43%.
Latin America
Argentina will publish activity data for April on Monday, with the result in focus after first-quarter growth data showed that the economy expanded significantly slower than expected early in 2025.
Chile will follow with economic activity data for May on Tuesday, a reading that will follow weekend primary elections for center-left candidates hoping to succeed President Gabriel Boric in a race for the country's top job later this year.
The data also comes after Chile's central bank kept its rate unchanged in mid-June, with policymakers saying that while domestic activity has exceeded expectations, they remain vigilant about an unpredictable global economy.
The monetary authority will publish the minutes to that decision on Thursday, with analysts looking for clearer signals about when policymakers may start cutting rates after signaling that more monetary easing is coming.
Later that day, Colombia's central bank will publish minutes to its decision to hold rates steady on Friday. The Andean nation has been roiled in recent weeks by the government's decision to suspend its fiscal rule, a move that along with a worsening debt burden led both S&P Global Ratings and Moody's Ratings to downgrade the nation's credit last week.