
After A 35% Fall Is AFRM Stock A Buy At $40?
These macroeconomic headwinds present specific challenges for Affirm. Persistently high inflation could prevent the U.S. Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates further, negatively impacting Affirm's lending business. Moreover, a potential economic recession would likely reduce demand for the company's financial products.
Given these factors, we maintain a negative outlook on Affirm's stock, viewing it as an unattractive investment at its current price of roughly $44 due to key concerns and its high valuation. Our conclusion stems from comparing AFRM's current valuation with its recent operating performance and financial history. Evaluating key parameters—Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience—shows Affirm's operating performance and financial condition to be moderate, as detailed below. However, if you prefer upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since inception.
Based on price per dollar of sales or profit, AFRM stock appears slightly expensive relative to the broader market.
Affirm's Revenues have grown considerably over recent years.
Affirm's profit margins lag behind most companies in the Trefis coverage universe.
Affirm's balance sheet appears sound.
AFRM stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during the economic downturn of 2022. While investors hope for a soft landing, there remains the risk of severe losses if another recession occurs. Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash illustrates how key stocks performed during and after the six most significant market crashes.
In summary, Affirm's performance across the parameters detailed above is as follows:
Even though Affirm's performance across key fundamental factors appears moderate, we believe its current high valuation makes the stock an unattractive investment at its present price. Moreover, the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties, coupled with increasing recession risks and elevated interest rates, suggest that AFRM stock could experience further decline.
While AFRM stock may be best avoided for now, consider the Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark (combining the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices) to deliver strong investor returns. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks offers a responsive strategy to capitalize on market upswings while mitigating losses during downturns, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.
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39 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Nasdaq secures record close as investors shake off tariff threats, eye key inflation data
US stocks rose on Monday with the Nasdaq (^IXIC) closing at a fresh record as Wall Street ultimately shrugged off renewed trade tensions and looked ahead to a key inflation report and the first wave of second quarter earnings. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) finished the mostly muted trading day up around 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added around 0.3% to secure yet another all-time closing high. Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC-USD) spiked above $123,000 for the first time as investors greeted the open of Congress's "Crypto Week," but the asset dropped back below $120,000 later in the day. Stocks with crypto ties also rallied as the House of Representatives weighs three key pieces of crypto-related legislation. Earlier in the day, investors showed a diminished appetite for risk after President Trump said Saturday that the US will impose 30% tariffs on goods from the EU and Mexico from Aug. 1. The increased pressure on key US trading partners is testing the market's previous resilience in the face of escalating tariff tensions. Faith in the idea that Trump will back off from threatened hikes helped lift stocks to all-time highs last week. Officials from the EU and Mexico are pushing to continue negotiations with the US in hopes of securing a lower rate via a new deal. The hiked tariffs as they stand are seen as likely to remake global trade relations and add to existing inflationary pressures. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs That adds uncertainty ahead of consumer inflation data scheduled for release this week. Investors are looking to the June CPI report on Tuesday for signs of how earlier rounds of tariffs are impacting prices across the US economy. The reading will feed into expectations for the Fed's decision on interest rates due in just over two weeks. Meanwhile, Trump ratcheted up tensions with Russia over the war in Ukraine on Monday, threatening to impose "secondary" tariffs of up to 100% on the country. He also said the US would provide weapons to Ukraine. Earnings season kicks into swing this week, with all the major US banks due to report results starting on Tuesday. Investors are showing interest in IPO and M&A markets, while Wells Fargo (WFC) reports after being freed from a decade of stringent regulatory restrictions. Stocks edged higher to kick off the week, with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) notching a fresh record close Monday as investors looked past renewed trade tensions and turned their focus to a key inflation report and the start of second quarter earnings. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also ended the session modestly in the green, rising about 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, while the Nasdaq gained 0.3%. June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show prices rose at a faster clip compared to May. The report, due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, comes as investors closely monitor whether President Trump's tariffs are starting to filter through to what consumers pay, even as inflation data has so far remained more resilient than expected. According to Bloomberg data, headline CPI is expected to have increased 2.6% year over year in June, up from a 2.4% rise in May. On a monthly basis, prices are forecast to climb 0.3%, marking an acceleration from the 0.1% gain the prior month. On a "core" basis, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, the annual inflation rate for June is expected to come in at 2.9%, a slight pickup from May's 2.8%. Core prices are also projected to climb 0.3% month over month, outpacing the previous 0.1% rise seen in May. In May, falling car and apparel prices, categories seen as early indicators of tariff impacts, contributed to a cooler-than-expected core CPI reading. But economists expect those trends to reverse in June, potentially pushing core inflation higher. The report lands amid renewed trade tensions between the US and other countries. President Trump has unveiled new letters to over 20 countries outlining tariffs ranging from 20% to 50%, including a 35% duty on Canadian goods and 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union. He has also floated sweeping 15% to 20% tariffs on most trading partners. The EU, in response, is scrambling to negotiate while preparing potential countermeasures. Read more here. The stock market continues to shake off President Trump's latest tariff threats. New letters from Trump over the weekend threatened 30% duties on goods from Mexico and the European Union. On Monday, he threatened 100% tariffs on Russia. Still, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.2% on Monday. Sure, perhaps part of this is the so-called TACO trade, a calling card for investors to stay invested because "Trump always chickens out" on his highest tariff threats. But Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson points out there's likely something more mathematical at play. The recent tariff announcements have said nothing about China, and as our Chart of the Day from Wilson shows, that's what matters to the widest array of industries. Wilson segmented various industries into different subsectors of exposure to tariffs. Seven categories, including technology and semiconductors, have "more material risk," meaning that import exposure in that group from China is more than 15% of the global total of imports. In other words, tariffs on China would hurt sectors like the tech sector more than tariffs on nearly any other country listed in Wilson's work. "The more material trade-elated risk for equity indices would be if tariff rates on China were to increase materially from here," Wilson wrote. "China is significant not only because of the number of industries with tariff cost exposure, but also because of the market cap weighting of those industries, in aggregate." Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma reports: Read more here. Meta (META) stock gained 1% after CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced on Monday that the company plans to build several data centers in the US. "Meta Superintelligence Labs will have industry-leading levels of compute and by far the greatest compute per researcher," Zuckerberg wrote in a post on Threads. The news followed several high-profile AI hires at Meta as the tech company looks to spend billions to advance its AI efforts and break free of its dependence on third-party companies. Yahoo Finance's Daniel Howley reports: Read more here. Procter & Gamble (PG) stock slipped about 2% on Monday after Evercore ISI analysts downgraded shares to In Line from Outperform, citing retail channel shifts and macro uncertainty. The analysts noted that P&G's sales growth could become capped as more consumers purchase household and personal care (HPC) items online with Amazon (AMZN) instead of at retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST). "Our concern ... increasingly lies in adverse shifts in retail channels that challenge Procter's growth potential," the analysts wrote. "In the U.S., Amazon now accounts for 50% of all HPC growth, which creates a 2-point growth gap or one point globally relative to Procter's core retailers, mainly Walmart and Costco, where the firm remains competitively advantaged given scale and product superiority. A parallel shift to pure online in China compounds macro pressures and could delay a turnaround, in our view." Procter & Gamble's market share at Amazon is about one-third its share at Costco and Walmart, the analysts noted. They cut their price target on P&G stock to $170 from $190. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. US stocks were little changed after President Trump floated secondary tariffs of up to 100% on Russia if the country does not make progress toward ending its war with Ukraine in 50 days. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) were roughly flat Monday afternoon, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added about 0.2%. Per the FT: The tariffs Trump threatened would theoretically apply to the imports of countries that trade with Russia. Direct US trade with Russia has plummeted amid the war, but Russia still trades with many countries in Europe and Asia — most notably China. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Read more here. Another Wall Street firm no longer sees the S&P 500 declining to finish the year. In a note to clients on Sunday, RBC Capital Markets boosted its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,250 from a prior target of 5,730. As RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina noted, the adjustment comes amid the market's more than 25% bounce back from the April lows and essentially moves their target back to where it sat in mid-March before the bulk of the tariff turmoil began. "We feel neutral on the outlook for stocks in the 2nd half of 2025, and are mindful that our new price target is essentially in line with recent levels," Calvasina wrote. "We expect choppy conditions in the back half of the year, and swings in both directions." Calvasina noted that it's likely still "too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts" on corporate earnings and also highlighted a slowdown in recent momentum as reasons she remains cautious that the next major move for the benchmark index is higher. While Calvasina is at least the ninth strategist tracked by Yahoo Finance to recently raise their S&P 500 target from their April downward revision, she's also part of a growing list of those who aren't pounding the table for the rally to continue. Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni, who maintains a 6,500 year-end target for the S&P 500, wrote in a note to clients on Sunday that the recent V-shape recovery in stocks could soon look more like a "square-root shaped pattern" where the rapid rise higher stalls out. Apple (AAPL) stock fell 1.2% in early trading on Monday as the iPhone maker faces pressure to shake up its artificial intelligence efforts and potentially acquire an established AI startup, such as Perplexity AI ( Bloomberg reports: Read more here. US stocks pulled back slightly on Monday as Wall Street braced for a turbulent week, with renewed trade tensions injecting uncertainty ahead of a key inflation report and the first wave of second-quarter earnings. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was off about 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was roughly flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.2%. Crypto stocks added to this year's gains on Monday as bitcoin (BTC-USD) surpassed $120,000 for the first time. The rally in crypto highlighted optimism in the sector as House lawmakers kicked off "Crypto Week," which is expected to result in new crypto-friendly stablecoin legislation. Coinbase (COIN), the largest crypto exchange, rose 1.6%, while Robinhood (HOOD) gained nearly 3%. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) added 0.5%. Strategy (MSTR) was up 2.8%. The Michael Saylor-led firm is one of the largest corporate holders of bitcoin through its bitcoin treasury. Bitcoin was trading just below $121,000 as of 9 a.m. ET. Here's a look at stocks moving ahead of the opening bell: Nio (NIO): US-listed shares of Nio jumped 5% in premarket trading after the Chinese EV maker unveiled its line of ONVO L90 SUVs, which will be launched at the end of July. Early pre-sales boosted optimism about the competitiveness of the seven-seater vehicle. Nebius Group (NBIS): Nebius stock soared more than 7% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy rating, citing the company's role in providing AI infrastructure. Tesla (TSLA): Tesla stock rose 1.3% ahead of a shareholder vote to determine whether to invest in CEO Elon Musk's xAI startup. Musk announced the vote after SpaceX reportedly agreed to invest $2 billion in xAI. Lionsgate (LION): Lionsgate shares surged 11% premarket on reports that Legendary Entertainment was considering taking over the film studio. Check out more trending tickers here. Wall Street's giant lenders are getting set to report their second quarter results this week, kicking off earnings season in earnest. What a difference a quarter makes for the mood surrounding the US's largest banks, Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith reports: Read more here. Kenvue (KVUE) stock rose 4% in premarket trading after the company said CEO and board member Thibaut Mongon stepped down as part of a strategic review. The Tylenol maker, which spun off from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in 2023, named company director Kirk Perry as interim chief executive, per Reuters. "The Board's strategic review is underway, and we are considering a broad range of potential alternatives, including ways to simplify the company's portfolio and how it operates," board chair Larry Merlo said. Read more here. Stocks are on the back foot before the bell, but are still trading near record highs heading into a busy week of economic data and quarterly earnings reports. Yahoo Finance's Myles Udland lays out the highlights in what's coming this week: Read more here. Yahoo Finance UK's Lucy Harley-McKeown reports: The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) ticked higher and European stocks dropped on Monday morning, as traders digest the latest round of tariff threats by US President Donald Trump. The US and UK have already struck a partial trade deal, meaning tariff threats have less impact on the FTSE. Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Stocks edged higher to kick off the week, with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) notching a fresh record close Monday as investors looked past renewed trade tensions and turned their focus to a key inflation report and the start of second quarter earnings. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also ended the session modestly in the green, rising about 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, while the Nasdaq gained 0.3%. June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show prices rose at a faster clip compared to May. The report, due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, comes as investors closely monitor whether President Trump's tariffs are starting to filter through to what consumers pay, even as inflation data has so far remained more resilient than expected. According to Bloomberg data, headline CPI is expected to have increased 2.6% year over year in June, up from a 2.4% rise in May. On a monthly basis, prices are forecast to climb 0.3%, marking an acceleration from the 0.1% gain the prior month. On a "core" basis, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, the annual inflation rate for June is expected to come in at 2.9%, a slight pickup from May's 2.8%. Core prices are also projected to climb 0.3% month over month, outpacing the previous 0.1% rise seen in May. In May, falling car and apparel prices, categories seen as early indicators of tariff impacts, contributed to a cooler-than-expected core CPI reading. But economists expect those trends to reverse in June, potentially pushing core inflation higher. The report lands amid renewed trade tensions between the US and other countries. President Trump has unveiled new letters to over 20 countries outlining tariffs ranging from 20% to 50%, including a 35% duty on Canadian goods and 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union. He has also floated sweeping 15% to 20% tariffs on most trading partners. The EU, in response, is scrambling to negotiate while preparing potential countermeasures. Read more here. The stock market continues to shake off President Trump's latest tariff threats. New letters from Trump over the weekend threatened 30% duties on goods from Mexico and the European Union. On Monday, he threatened 100% tariffs on Russia. Still, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.2% on Monday. Sure, perhaps part of this is the so-called TACO trade, a calling card for investors to stay invested because "Trump always chickens out" on his highest tariff threats. But Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson points out there's likely something more mathematical at play. The recent tariff announcements have said nothing about China, and as our Chart of the Day from Wilson shows, that's what matters to the widest array of industries. Wilson segmented various industries into different subsectors of exposure to tariffs. Seven categories, including technology and semiconductors, have "more material risk," meaning that import exposure in that group from China is more than 15% of the global total of imports. In other words, tariffs on China would hurt sectors like the tech sector more than tariffs on nearly any other country listed in Wilson's work. "The more material trade-elated risk for equity indices would be if tariff rates on China were to increase materially from here," Wilson wrote. "China is significant not only because of the number of industries with tariff cost exposure, but also because of the market cap weighting of those industries, in aggregate." Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma reports: Read more here. Meta (META) stock gained 1% after CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced on Monday that the company plans to build several data centers in the US. "Meta Superintelligence Labs will have industry-leading levels of compute and by far the greatest compute per researcher," Zuckerberg wrote in a post on Threads. The news followed several high-profile AI hires at Meta as the tech company looks to spend billions to advance its AI efforts and break free of its dependence on third-party companies. Yahoo Finance's Daniel Howley reports: Read more here. Procter & Gamble (PG) stock slipped about 2% on Monday after Evercore ISI analysts downgraded shares to In Line from Outperform, citing retail channel shifts and macro uncertainty. The analysts noted that P&G's sales growth could become capped as more consumers purchase household and personal care (HPC) items online with Amazon (AMZN) instead of at retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST). "Our concern ... increasingly lies in adverse shifts in retail channels that challenge Procter's growth potential," the analysts wrote. "In the U.S., Amazon now accounts for 50% of all HPC growth, which creates a 2-point growth gap or one point globally relative to Procter's core retailers, mainly Walmart and Costco, where the firm remains competitively advantaged given scale and product superiority. A parallel shift to pure online in China compounds macro pressures and could delay a turnaround, in our view." Procter & Gamble's market share at Amazon is about one-third its share at Costco and Walmart, the analysts noted. They cut their price target on P&G stock to $170 from $190. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. US stocks were little changed after President Trump floated secondary tariffs of up to 100% on Russia if the country does not make progress toward ending its war with Ukraine in 50 days. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) were roughly flat Monday afternoon, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added about 0.2%. Per the FT: The tariffs Trump threatened would theoretically apply to the imports of countries that trade with Russia. Direct US trade with Russia has plummeted amid the war, but Russia still trades with many countries in Europe and Asia — most notably China. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Read more here. Another Wall Street firm no longer sees the S&P 500 declining to finish the year. In a note to clients on Sunday, RBC Capital Markets boosted its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,250 from a prior target of 5,730. As RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina noted, the adjustment comes amid the market's more than 25% bounce back from the April lows and essentially moves their target back to where it sat in mid-March before the bulk of the tariff turmoil began. "We feel neutral on the outlook for stocks in the 2nd half of 2025, and are mindful that our new price target is essentially in line with recent levels," Calvasina wrote. "We expect choppy conditions in the back half of the year, and swings in both directions." Calvasina noted that it's likely still "too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts" on corporate earnings and also highlighted a slowdown in recent momentum as reasons she remains cautious that the next major move for the benchmark index is higher. While Calvasina is at least the ninth strategist tracked by Yahoo Finance to recently raise their S&P 500 target from their April downward revision, she's also part of a growing list of those who aren't pounding the table for the rally to continue. Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni, who maintains a 6,500 year-end target for the S&P 500, wrote in a note to clients on Sunday that the recent V-shape recovery in stocks could soon look more like a "square-root shaped pattern" where the rapid rise higher stalls out. Apple (AAPL) stock fell 1.2% in early trading on Monday as the iPhone maker faces pressure to shake up its artificial intelligence efforts and potentially acquire an established AI startup, such as Perplexity AI ( Bloomberg reports: Read more here. US stocks pulled back slightly on Monday as Wall Street braced for a turbulent week, with renewed trade tensions injecting uncertainty ahead of a key inflation report and the first wave of second-quarter earnings. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was off about 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was roughly flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.2%. Crypto stocks added to this year's gains on Monday as bitcoin (BTC-USD) surpassed $120,000 for the first time. The rally in crypto highlighted optimism in the sector as House lawmakers kicked off "Crypto Week," which is expected to result in new crypto-friendly stablecoin legislation. Coinbase (COIN), the largest crypto exchange, rose 1.6%, while Robinhood (HOOD) gained nearly 3%. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) added 0.5%. Strategy (MSTR) was up 2.8%. The Michael Saylor-led firm is one of the largest corporate holders of bitcoin through its bitcoin treasury. Bitcoin was trading just below $121,000 as of 9 a.m. ET. Here's a look at stocks moving ahead of the opening bell: Nio (NIO): US-listed shares of Nio jumped 5% in premarket trading after the Chinese EV maker unveiled its line of ONVO L90 SUVs, which will be launched at the end of July. Early pre-sales boosted optimism about the competitiveness of the seven-seater vehicle. Nebius Group (NBIS): Nebius stock soared more than 7% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy rating, citing the company's role in providing AI infrastructure. Tesla (TSLA): Tesla stock rose 1.3% ahead of a shareholder vote to determine whether to invest in CEO Elon Musk's xAI startup. Musk announced the vote after SpaceX reportedly agreed to invest $2 billion in xAI. Lionsgate (LION): Lionsgate shares surged 11% premarket on reports that Legendary Entertainment was considering taking over the film studio. Check out more trending tickers here. Wall Street's giant lenders are getting set to report their second quarter results this week, kicking off earnings season in earnest. What a difference a quarter makes for the mood surrounding the US's largest banks, Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith reports: Read more here. Kenvue (KVUE) stock rose 4% in premarket trading after the company said CEO and board member Thibaut Mongon stepped down as part of a strategic review. The Tylenol maker, which spun off from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in 2023, named company director Kirk Perry as interim chief executive, per Reuters. "The Board's strategic review is underway, and we are considering a broad range of potential alternatives, including ways to simplify the company's portfolio and how it operates," board chair Larry Merlo said. Read more here. Stocks are on the back foot before the bell, but are still trading near record highs heading into a busy week of economic data and quarterly earnings reports. Yahoo Finance's Myles Udland lays out the highlights in what's coming this week: Read more here. Yahoo Finance UK's Lucy Harley-McKeown reports: The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) ticked higher and European stocks dropped on Monday morning, as traders digest the latest round of tariff threats by US President Donald Trump. The US and UK have already struck a partial trade deal, meaning tariff threats have less impact on the FTSE. Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Sign in to access your portfolio


Business Insider
41 minutes ago
- Business Insider
BYD Stock (BYDDY) Roars as Soaring British EV Demand Puts the Squeeze on Musk
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Business Insider
41 minutes ago
- Business Insider
iShares S&P / TSX 60 Index ETF Stock (TSE:XIU) Makes Small Gains, Along With Wholesale Prices
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