Latest news with #TrefisReinforcedValuePortfolio
Forbes
30-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Up 30% In A Week, HIMS Stock Is Just Getting Warmed Up
POLAND - 2025/03/27: In this photo illustration, the Hims and Hers Health company logo is seen ... More displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Piotr Swat/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS) stock surged 23% on Tuesday, April 29, following Novo Nordisk's announcement that it will offer its popular weight loss drug Wegovy through select telehealth platforms, including Hims & Hers Health, Ro, and LifeMD. This development comes just weeks after we highlighted HIMS as a company poised for a turnaround. See - HIMS Stock: Time For A Turnaround? For those seeking upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, take a look at the High-Quality portfolio, which has beaten the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since its inception. The partnership represents a significant opportunity for HIMS, which has been transitioning from selling compounded versions of weight loss drugs during supply shortages to offering branded medications. While Novo Nordisk's direct-to-consumer portal, Novocare, sells Wegovy at $499 monthly (half the listed price for patients without insurance coverage), telehealth platforms like HIMS are expected to command slightly higher prices by bundling Wegovy with their other services. HIMS is particularly well-positioned to benefit from this arrangement due to its substantial subscriber base of 2.2 million customers. Adding a high-priced drug like Wegovy to its offerings should increase both monthly average revenue per subscriber and average order value, driving significant top-line growth. From a valuation perspective, HIMS now trades at $35, representing a price-to-sales ratio of 5.6x - higher than its five-year average of 3.3x. However, this premium valuation is justified by improved business fundamentals. While HIMS stock previously reached levels above $70 when selling compounded versions, there was uncertainty about the company's strategy once drug shortages ended. Now, with a clear path forward - offering both obesity treatment plans and branded medications - the stock warrants a higher valuation multiple. Supporting this outlook is HIMS's impressive operational performance: 76% average annual revenue growth over the past three years, 12% adjusted EBITDA margin, and a quadrupling of subscribers since 2021. Given these strong fundamentals, continued stock price appreciation would not be surprising. Markets can remain volatile, and fear often clouds judgment. However, for long-term investors, HIMS's strong financials and growth outlook may reward patience. For those seeking reduced risk, a more balanced investment approach like the Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark, could offer more stability while still tapping into potential gains. Why is that? This portfolio's quarterly rebalancing of large-, mid-, and small-cap stocks enables it to capture gains during rallies while cushioning downside risks, as outlined in the RV Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
23-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
After A 35% Fall Is AFRM Stock A Buy At $40?
Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ: AFRM), a financial technology company offering buy now, pay later and point-of-sale payment solutions, has seen its stock decline nearly 30% this year. This drop is primarily due to growing concerns about the broader economic environment. In particular, President Trump's tariffs on trading partners have heightened fears of negative impacts on the U.S. economy and consumer spending. China's stronger-than-expected retaliatory tariffs have further intensified this situation, fueling a global trade war and a downturn in world markets. These macroeconomic headwinds present specific challenges for Affirm. Persistently high inflation could prevent the U.S. Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates further, negatively impacting Affirm's lending business. Moreover, a potential economic recession would likely reduce demand for the company's financial products. Given these factors, we maintain a negative outlook on Affirm's stock, viewing it as an unattractive investment at its current price of roughly $44 due to key concerns and its high valuation. Our conclusion stems from comparing AFRM's current valuation with its recent operating performance and financial history. Evaluating key parameters—Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience—shows Affirm's operating performance and financial condition to be moderate, as detailed below. However, if you prefer upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since inception. Based on price per dollar of sales or profit, AFRM stock appears slightly expensive relative to the broader market. Affirm's Revenues have grown considerably over recent years. Affirm's profit margins lag behind most companies in the Trefis coverage universe. Affirm's balance sheet appears sound. AFRM stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during the economic downturn of 2022. While investors hope for a soft landing, there remains the risk of severe losses if another recession occurs. Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash illustrates how key stocks performed during and after the six most significant market crashes. In summary, Affirm's performance across the parameters detailed above is as follows: Even though Affirm's performance across key fundamental factors appears moderate, we believe its current high valuation makes the stock an unattractive investment at its present price. Moreover, the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties, coupled with increasing recession risks and elevated interest rates, suggest that AFRM stock could experience further decline. While AFRM stock may be best avoided for now, consider the Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark (combining the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices) to deliver strong investor returns. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks offers a responsive strategy to capitalize on market upswings while mitigating losses during downturns, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
Forbes
16-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Is HIMS Stock Ready For A Rebound After A 60% Fall?
Trefis Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS), a telehealth platform, has seen a steep decline recently, with its stock plunging 60% from February highs of over $70 to below $30. Long-term investors may find this familiar—HIMS has experienced similar dramatic drops before. During the 2022 inflation surge, the stock fell 87%, and in 2020, it dropped 77%. Amid shortages of weight loss drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, HIMS benefited by offering compounded versions. Now that supply constraints have eased, HIMS has transitioned to offering branded medications through its telehealth services, including Eli Lilly's in-demand Zepbound. For those seeking upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, take a look at the High-Quality portfolio, which has beaten the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Several growth indicators look promising. Total subscribers on the Hims & Hers platform have soared from 0.5 million in 2021 to 2.2 million today. Additionally, average revenue per subscriber has risen from $51 to $64 during the same period. With expanding offerings driving subscriber growth, the company expects 2025 sales to grow 58% to $2.35 billion. Despite recent market turbulence, analysts still peg the average price target at $45—implying a potential 50% upside from current levels. Markets can remain volatile, and fear often clouds judgment. However, for long-term investors, HIMS' strong financials and growth outlook may reward patience. For those seeking reduced risk, a more balanced investment approach like the Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark, could offer more stability while still tapping into potential gains. Why is that? This portfolio's quarterly rebalancing of large-, mid-, and small-cap stocks enables it to capture gains during rallies while cushioning downside risks, as outlined in the RV Portfolio performance metrics. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
Forbes
14-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Home Depot Over Lowe's? Yes, Here's Why
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 10: The Home Depot logo is displayed outside a store on March 10, 2025 ... More in San Diego, California. (Photo by) Question: Why would investors consider buying Home Depot stock (NYSE: HD) at 25 times earnings, while Lowe's stock (NYSE: LOW) trades at a lower multiple of 19? The answer becomes clear when you look at these key points: Although some may see Home Depot as a 'safe haven,' its performance during prior market downturns suggests otherwise. The stock declined more than 35% during the 2022 inflation-led downturn and fell nearly 38% during the 2020 pandemic. This indicates that HD may not be as defensive as perceived. Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash highlights how key stocks performed across the last six market crashes. That said, Home Depot has already seen a substantial pullback, falling from nearly $425 in January to around $354 as of April 10. For those looking for a potentially more stable and higher-performing alternative, the Trefis High Quality portfolio—which has delivered more than 91% in returns since inception—may be worth exploring, as shown in the HQ performance metrics. Home Depot continues to emphasize its Pro customer segment, with investments in digital tools, Pro Desk services, and in-store improvements. These enhancements are helping boost customer engagement as homeowners delay major renovations or seek financing due to higher interest rates. Home Depot's scale enables robust investments in marketing, supply chain infrastructure, and omnichannel features—strengthening its market position. Given that most U.S. homes are 31 to 60 years old, demand for renovations remains strong regardless of new home sales. Home Depot's evenly split customer base between DIY and Pro clients allows it to benefit from both segments. In contrast, Pro customers account for only about 30% of Lowe's sales, which may limit its upside in comparison. Despite its solid fundamentals, there are important risks associated with Home Depot. A major concern is the potential for earnings to miss expectations, particularly as cost pressures mount. In today's cautious economic environment—marked by reduced R&D and expansion—Home Depot's performance will hinge on cost control and sourcing flexibility. Another risk lies in unexpected economic shocks, which could lead to steep declines. In a worst-case scenario, the stock could lose as much as 40%. Investors should resist the urge to panic sell, as doing so could damage long-term returns. Patience and strategic thinking remain crucial. For long-term investors with a 3-5 year outlook and tolerance for market volatility, Home Depot at current levels could offer a compelling entry opportunity. Those looking to hedge market risks might benefit from the Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio, which has consistently outpaced its all-cap benchmarks—including the S&P 500, S&P MidCap, and Russell 2000. Consulting with a financial advisor experienced in navigating bear markets can also add value. Long-term wealth often favors those who remain calm and strategic amid market turbulence. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
Forbes
11-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Is NVDA Stock A Bargain At $110?
BATH, UNITED KINGDOM - JANUARY 29: In this photo illustration a smartphone screen displays the logo ... More for the app for Chinese AI company DeepSeek alongside the logo for the ChatGPT app on January 29, 2025 in Bath, England. (Photo by) Question: Why would someone pay 30 times earnings for Microsoft stock (NASDAQ: MSFT) when Nvidia stock is available at 33 times earnings? It may not seem logical, especially when considering these three key factors: Although Nvidia may appear to be a 'safe haven,' its historical performance during market disruptions suggests caution. During the 2022 inflation shock, NVDA plunged over 65%. In 2020, amid pandemic-driven uncertainty, the stock declined more than 35%. Most notably, it lost 85% of its value during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. So, NVDA doesn't exactly qualify as a safe stock. Our dashboard How Low Can NVIDIA Stock Go In A Market Crash? offers detailed insights into how Nvidia has performed during and after past market crashes. Still, Nvidia's stock has already corrected meaningfully, dropping from nearly $150 earlier this year to under $110 currently. Investors seeking a potentially more resilient alternative may want to explore the Trefis High Quality portfolio, a strategy that has returned more than 91% since inception, as shown by its HQ performance metrics. For investors who believe in the long-term growth of Artificial Intelligence, Nvidia could be a compelling choice at its current valuation. The company holds a crucial position as an 'arms supplier' in the AI revolution. Investing in Nvidia is effectively backing the infrastructure that powers AI development across major companies like Meta, Google, and Amazon. As the AI boom is still in its early phases, companies continue to invest heavily in supporting infrastructure. For instance, Meta's projected capital expenditures for tech infrastructure stand at around $65 billion—illustrating the magnitude of ongoing AI investments. Despite its attractive potential, Nvidia carries risks that should not be overlooked. Earnings may fall short of projections, and growth could decelerate from the current 50% rate to a more modest 30%, especially if firms begin conserving cash. There's also a possibility that Nvidia's clients will prioritize building more efficient AI models, reducing their need for an ever-expanding volume of chips. Moreover, unexpected developments can adversely affect the stock. Investors should be aware of the potential for a 40% drop in share price under adverse conditions. However, selling amid such a downturn could undermine long-term investment goals. Despite these headwinds, long-term investors with a 3–5 year horizon who are comfortable with market volatility may find Nvidia attractive at current levels. For those interested in strategies designed to navigate downturns, the Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio has consistently outperformed a blended benchmark of all-cap stocks, including the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Alternatively, investors could consider consulting with an advisor experienced in bear market strategies. Staying calm and strategic during turbulent markets can lead to significant long-term gains. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
