Why is Putin pushing Tehran towards Trump's nuclear deal?

Times

10 hours ago

As an old ally of Iran, the Kremlin's position has long been that the regime has the right to develop nuclear energy, while acknowledging that Tehran's race for a bomb should be curtailed.
So reports this weekend that Russia is leaning on Iran to accept a deal that denies it the right to enrich uranium for any purpose have provoked a typically caustic response from Moscow.
Any suggestion that President Putin hoped to pressure Tehran into such a nuclear deal with the United States, said Russia's foreign ministry on Sunday, was part of a 'dirty, politicised campaign, which is being hatched with the aim of escalating tension around the Iranian nuclear programme'.
Moscow's protests, however, may hide a more subtle approach than it wants to admit.
Sources familiar with the discussions told Axios that Putin had informed President Trump and Iranian officials that he supported the idea of a nuclear deal in which Iran is unable to enrich uranium.
Moscow had encouraged the Iranians to agree to this 'zero enrichment' condition, according to four officials — three European and one Israeli — with knowledge of the matter.
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Two sources told Axios that the Russians had also briefed the Israeli government about Putin's position on Iran's uranium enrichment. 'We know that this is what Putin told the Iranians,' a senior Israeli official said.
A European official told Axios: 'Putin would support zero enrichment. He encouraged the Iranians to work towards that in order to make negotiations with the Americans more favourable.'
Putin was also said to have expressed that position in calls last week with Trump and President Macron of France.
So far, the Iranians appear to have rejected Putin's overture, but the claims suggest that the Kremlin's strategy on any nuclear deal is more nuanced than it is prepared to let on. Russia and Iran have a long-standing bond, and their forces cooperated for years in Syria in support of President Assad, before his regime collapsed in December.
Ties strengthened after Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Russia joined Iran as one of the most heavily sanctioned states in the world. Iran exported thousands of Shahed drones to Moscow for use in its attacks on Ukrainian cities, although the reliance has since diminished after Russia increased production of its own attack drones.
The Kremlin's challenge over Israeli and American airstrikes on Iran last month and Trump's push for a nuclear deal is intended to balance several competing interests.
Conflict in the region holds the promise of rising oil prices — advantageous to Russia as a major producer — and a distraction from continued attacks on Ukraine, condemned in the West.
But the Kremlin shied away from providing explicit security guarantees to Iran when they agreed on a strategic partnership in January. After Israel launched its strikes, Russia disappointed Tehran by providing only verbal support.
The dangers posed by the potential for further Israeli strikes were underlined on Sunday when it emerged that Iran's President Pezeshkian was wounded in the leg and forced to escape through an emergency hatch when Israel struck a meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council with six missiles during the 12-day war.
Experts said that Moscow was probably pushing for a deal because it is wary of Iran disintegrating under renewed assault, which could threaten Russia's economic interests.
Russia was Iran's biggest foreign investor last year, and its specialists are deeply involved at Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran, which was built by Russia's atomic energy agency, Rosatom. Iranian nuclear scientists have also been trained in Russia.
There are plans to build a natural gas pipeline from Russia to Iran via Azerbaijan, and an albeit faltering project for Moscow to help construct a gas hub for exporting supplies to third countries.
'The main problem faced by Russia in the current circumstances is the threat to all the projects in Iran in which it has been actively investing since 2022,' said Nikita Smagin, an expert on Iranian affairs and Russian policy in the Middle East, in a recent analysis for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
'If Iran becomes permanently unstable as a result of the current attacks, then both the gas hub and other more realistic projects will go up in smoke, along with the investments already made.'
Iranian sources claimed on Sunday that Putin had not urged Tehran to accept a 'no enrichment deal'.
The Washington Post reported that, amid a power struggle among Iranian elites, those advocating negotiation with the US over the nuclear programme may increasingly have the upper hand over those favouring confrontation.
Gregory Brew, a senior analyst on Iran and energy at Eurasia Group, predicted Iran would remain intransigent, but noted its position now looked starker.
'Russia pushing zero enrichment won't be enough to move Tehran, but it does underscore Iran's growing isolation, especially with the E3 threatening snapback,' he said, referring to Britain, France and Germany, the three signatories to the original deal with Iran in 2015, and the fact they could reimpose previously-lifted UN sanctions.