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Miami Herald
29 minutes ago
- Miami Herald
Map Shows States Americans Are Moving From and To
With declining births and slower immigration following the Trump administration's strict deportation policies, domestic migration is bound to become an increasingly more important driver of U.S. population change, a recent study found. Florida and Texas, which have both been among the fastest-growing states in the nation for years, know what a positive impact a booming population can have on the local economy and job market, as well as what happens when this demographic explosion starts to wane. This year's State of the Nation's Housing report, released earlier this week by the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University, found that the movement of Americans across the country has declined in 2024 all across the country, including in the states that are traditionally the most popular among movers. Last year, according to researchers, the nation reported the lowest rates of household mobility on record since the 1970s. According to the latest Current Population Survey, about 8.3 percent of households (10.9 million) reported moving over the past year, a rate unchanged from a year earlier and down from 9.8 percent (12.6 million) before the pandemic, in 2019. In the same year, the homeowner mobility rate dropped to an all-time low of 3.1 percent, down from 3.7 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2019. That means U.S. homeowners made 24 percent fewer moves last year than in 2019, before the pandemic unleashed a surge of remote workers relocating from large, busy metropolises to smaller, more affordable towns. The South was the main beneficiary of this influx of people relocating to cheaper, more livable parts of the nation, with Florida and Texas adding hundreds of thousands of new residents over the past five years. The rate of domestic migration in Florida increased from 6.5 in 2019 to 8.1 in 2020, 11.4 in 2021, and reached a peak of 14.2 in 2022. In 2023, it fell to 8.2, and in 2024, it plunged to 2.7. In Texas, the rate increased from 4.2 in 2019 to 5.6 in 2020, 6.7 in 2021, 7.4 in 2022, and 6.3 in 2023, only to fall to 2.8 in 2024. While domestic migration remained the main source of population growth last year for 11 states, primarily in the South, net gains from migration fell in several of these states. In North Carolina, domestic migration decreased by 17 percent from the previous year, while in Tennessee, it decreased by 20 percent. Not only has in-migration-the process of relocating permanently to another part of one's home country-slowed down in the states that were most benefiting from it over the past five years, but out-migration from states that were hemorrhaging residents also slowed down last year. The number of residents moving out of California, for example, dropped by 30 percent in 2024, from −344,000 in 2023 to −240,000 in 2024. New York, another state where out-migration has surpassed in-migration in recent years, lost 121,000 people on net to interstate migration in 2024, about 30 percent fewer than in 2023 (−177,000) and 60 percent fewer than in 2022 (−296,000). Since 2019, the cost of homeownership has skyrocketed nationwide, including in states that previously offered more affordable options. The median sale price of a typical U.S. home was $313,000 in the first quarter of 2019, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau; in the first quarter of 2024, it had surged to $426,800. As of the first quarter of 2025, $416,900. Mortgage rates have also gone through the roof since 2019. If historically low monthly payments during the pandemic spurred a homebuying frenzy nationwide, rates lingering around the 7 percent mark are now hindering demand, pushing buyers to the sidelines. The result is that packing up and moving to another state has become a trickier operation for many Americans, considering the overall cost of purchasing a new property. On top of that, return-to-office orders from companies that had been pressured to offer remote working options during the pandemic are now forcing many employees to go back to the same busy metros they had left. According to the JCHS study, last year there was a slowdown in moves out of urban centers across the U.S., which had accelerated during the pandemic. Net moves from dense urban counties, such as those in New York City, researchers found, fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, down 17 percent from the previous year. At the same time, net moves into suburban counties fell 16 percent year-over-year, while gains in smaller metros and non-metro counties declined by 12 percent and 31 percent, respectively, over the past year; however, these remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. Related Articles Map Shows States With the Best Major Airports in the Shows 10 Housing Markets Where Buyers Have More PowerMap Shows Most Expensive Home Sales Across USMap Shows Which States Will Feel Hottest Today 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Miami Herald
29 minutes ago
- Miami Herald
Donald Trump Voters Are Losing Faith With Trump
Once the cornerstone of his political strength, President Donald Trump's base is showing signs of erosion. The latest YouGov/Economist poll, conducted June 20-23 among 1,590 adults, shows that Trump's approval rating among those who voted for him in 2024 stands at 83 percent, while 14 percent disapprove, giving him a net approval rating of +69 points, down from +80 last month. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Last month's poll was conducted before Trump carried out airstrikes against three key Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. In retaliation, Iran fired missiles at a U.S. military base in Qatar on Monday. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel was agreed to the same day, though tensions remain high. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have since accused Iran of violating the ceasefire and threatened to strike Tehran in response—an accusation Tehran denies. The rapid escalation has spotlighted the risks of deeper U.S. military involvement in the Middle East and highlighted the evolving nature of American foreign policy under Trump, who once promised to protect "America's vital interests" without engaging in "endless wars" overseas. The strikes appear to have triggered a shift in public attitudes—even among Republicans—with polls showing signs of declining support for Trump's agenda. Additional data from the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted June 21–23 among 1,139 respondents, reinforces the trend: 84 percent of Republicans said they approve of the president's job performance, down from 90 percent last month. The latest poll had a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points. Political analysts say Trump's declining approval ratings are tied to a growing disconnect between his actions and voter priorities—particularly after his recent military intervention in Iran. Thomas Gift, founding director of the University College London Centre on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek Trump's decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities has unsettled many in the MAGA movement who expected him to avoid foreign entanglements. "Trump's recent actions in Iran have done little to reassure the MAGA base that he'll steer clear of another endless war in the Middle East," Gift said, noting that even former chief strategist Steve Bannon has warned the conflict could escalate into "U.S. boots on the ground." Gift added that a core tenet of Trump's 2024 message was that "'America First' meant staying out of foreign conflicts," but now "that promise is starting to ring hollow." Peter Loge, a political communications professor at George Washington University and former Obama advisor, told Newsweek Trump's approval ratings are falling for broader reasons as well. "Trump's numbers are down because that's how public opinion works," Loge said. "He is pursuing policies people don't like, while ignoring things people care about." He pointed to "thermostatic politics"—the idea that voters often react against the party in power, even when it does what they asked for—as a key factor. "Trump started in a weak position with a lot of soft support," Loge explained. "That he is getting less popular is unsurprising." Loge added that many of Trump's headline policies—such as sending troops into American cities or escalating military conflicts abroad—don't match what most voters are asking for. "Most voters mostly want things to work," he said. "They want to be able to afford gas and groceries, pay their medical bills, and know their kids have a shot at a good future." Instead, Trump's agenda—threatening Medicaid, risking inflation with tariffs, and engaging in costly foreign conflicts—"either ignores what most voters care about, or threatens to make those things worse." "President Trump likes people to pay attention to Donald Trump," Loge said. "Voters would rather pay attention to their families." It comes as polls show that a majority of Americans do not approve of U.S. airstrikes in Iran. The YouGov/Economist poll found just 29 percent think the U.S. should be carrying the strikes, while 46 percent said it should not. The Washington Post found modestly higher support for the U.S. military bombing Iran. In a poll, 25 percent of adults supported "the U.S. military launching airstrikes against Iran over its nuclear program," while 45 percent were opposed. The poll also found that 82 percent of Americans were either "somewhat" or "very" concerned about getting involved in a full-scale war with Iran. Analysis by pollster G. Elliott Morris showed that 21 percent of Americans said last week that they supported U.S. involvement in Iran, while 57 percent opposed. And it seems that Trump's decision to launch airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities has exposed deep divisions within the party. Republican Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky called Trump's move unconstitutional. "This is not our war. Even if it were, Congress must decide such matters according to our Constitution," Massie posted on X, formerly Twitter. Far-right Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a Trump ally, struck a cautious tone after the bombing, posting on X: "Let us join together and pray for the safety of our U.S. troops and Americans in the Middle East." But just 30 minutes before the announcement of the airstrikes, Greene voiced frustration: "Every time America is on the verge of greatness, we get involved in another foreign war... Israel is a nuclear armed nation. This is not our fight. Peace is the answer." Former Trump adviser and War Room podcast host Steve Bannon was even more direct in his criticism, blasting the president for publicly thanking Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the operation. "It hasn't been lost... that he thanked Bibi Netanyahu, who I would think right now – at least the War Room's position is – [is] the last guy on Earth you should thank," Bannon said. Bannon, who has long opposed U.S. military involvement in Iran, questioned Trump's reliance on intelligence reportedly provided by Israel, rather than U.S. sources. "I don't think we've been dealing from the top of the deck," he said, and described Trump's post-strike remarks as "very open-ended," adding: "I'm not quite sure [it was] the talk that a lot of MAGA wanted to hear." While Bannon insisted that "the MAGA movement will back Trump," he noted growing discomfort with the president's increasingly hawkish posture, recalling that opposition to "forever wars" was a defining issue in Trump's 2016 campaign. "One of the core tenets is no forever wars," Bannon told an audience in Washington days before the strike. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's director of national intelligence, also appeared to diverge from the president. Trump recently criticized the intelligence community's assessment that Iran had not taken the political decision to build a nuclear bomb, saying they were "wrong." Gabbard has denied any serious disagreement. Charlie Kirk, a prominent right-wing influencer, warned ahead of the strikes that Trump risked alienating his base. "Trump voters, especially young people, supported [him] because he was the first president in my lifetime to not start a new war," he said. But after the strikes, Kirk appeared to soften, reposting a clip of Vice President JD Vance praising the pilots involved. "They dropped 30,000 pound bombs on a target the size of a washing machine... Whatever our politics, we should be proud," Vance said. Nonetheless, polls suggest that Trump's MAGA base is largely supportive of the strikes. A recent J.L. Partners poll showed that support for U.S. military action against Iran is strongest among Trump's most devoted base. Two-thirds of self-identified "MAGA Republicans" (65 percent) back U.S. strikes, far surpassing support among "Traditional Republicans" (51 percent). Most Republican voters also view Israel's war with Iran as a shared American cause, with 63 percent saying "Israel's war is America's war"—a figure that rises to 67 percent among MAGA Republicans. And a new Washington Post/George Mason University survey finds Republican support for a strike rising from 47 percent to 77 percent. For comparison, political independents moved 10 points in Trump's direction, and Democrats stayed put. For pollster G Elliott Morris, there is a simple explanation for this. "Many Republicans do not hold isolationism as a value above their partisanship," he wrote in a blog post. "When push comes to shove, party loyalty and following the leader override some abstract commitment to staying out of foreign conflicts. If Trump decides that the MAGA movement should abandon isolationism altogether and invade Iran, then a large chunk of the movement will follow suit. The speed and scale of the shift in Republican opinion after Trump's decision to bomb Iran is a textbook example of this." He continued: "Of course, partisanship is not just a Republican phenomenon, but Trump's gravitational pull on opinion is unlike the force wielded by any other politician." Aaron Evans, president of Winning Republican Strategies, summed up why Republicans support Trump's actions in Iran. "Americans know President Trump did exactly what he promised: he stopped Iran from getting nuclear weapons without dragging us into another endless war," Evans told Newsweek. "While Democrats rushed to scream 'World War III,' Trump exposed their weakness and lack of seriousness on foreign policy. He showed strength, poise, and strategic discipline—doing what others only talk about: keeping nukes out of the hands of a terror regime while securing peace through strength. The media can spin, but voters see the truth. President Trump acted with precision, avoided war, and protected American lives. He's a man of action, not talk—and that's exactly why his base remains strong." However, the most recent YouGov/Economist poll found that only 47 percent of Trump 2024 voters think the U.S. should take active part in world affairs, while 37 percent disagreed and 19 percent said they are not sure. Related Articles Donald Trump Approval Rating Falls To All-Time LowBirthright Citizenship: What Polls Show About Americans' ViewsNew 2028 Democratic Front-Runner Surges Ahead of Kamala Harris-PollSusan Collins' Chances of Winning Re-election in Maine, According to Polls 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Miami Herald
29 minutes ago
- Miami Herald
Donald Trump Notches His Best Week Yet
President Donald Trump is coming off what may be his most successful week in office — perhaps of both terms — with a string of victories that reinforced the speed at which his administration is moving to radically reshape American policy, both foreign and domestic, ahead of a critical summer stretch. A landmark Supreme Court ruling, a successful NATO summit, a ceasefire that appears to be holding in the Middle East, another peace deal in Africa, a stock market back to setting records, a key trade breakthrough with China — capped off with the surprise emergence of a new political foil — all combined to shift the narrative in his favor, even as polls show him underwater on some of his signature issues. In a pivotal decision Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court limited the power of individual judges to issue nationwide injunctions, a ruling that Trump hailed as "a monumental victory" that clears the way for his administration to reintroduce contested policies such as ending automatic birthright citizenship. "We can now promptly file to proceed with these numerous policies," a jubilant Trump said from the White House. "Even the Birthright Citizenship Hoax has been, indirectly, hit hard," he posted on Truth Social, describing citizenship by birth as "a scam" on the U.S. immigration system. The court's 6-3 ruling marks a significant shift in how legal challenges to executive power may proceed, reinforcing Trump's long-standing criticism that district judges were overstepping their roles. The ruling did not address the constitutionality of Trump's proposed order to end birthright citizenship, which remains blocked, but it opens the door for narrower challenges that could now proceed on a case-by-case basis. Following the Supreme Court ruling, Trump hosted leaders from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda at the White House to sign the framework of a peace deal between the African neighbors intended to end a long-running and bloody conflict. In the Middle East, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, personally brokered by Trump, held through the week, and U.S. officials offered new details to support the president's claim that American strikes had crippled key parts of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. "This was a devastating attack, and it knocked them for a loop," Trump said at a NATO summit at The Hague, dismissing initial intelligence suggesting a limited impact. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and CIA Director John Ratcliffe echoed Trump's confidence, with Ratcliffe claiming "several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years." Meanwhile, Iran's own foreign ministry acknowledged "significant damage," though observers warned that full assessments could take weeks. "The bombing rendered the enrichment facility inoperable," said a joint statement by the White House and the Israeli Prime Minister's Office. Although some lawmakers, like Democratic Representative Jim Himes of Connecticut, criticized the administration for not consulting Congress, the ceasefire and lack of immediate retaliation gave Trump a short-term diplomatic win. Financial markets responded positively to Trump's string of policy wins and signs of economic stabilization. The S&P 500 closed at a new high on Friday, driven by investor optimism over the administration's trade and tax proposals. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that negotiations over new reciprocal tariffs are proceeding and could stretch beyond Trump's July 8 deadline. He told Fox Business that talks with 10 to 12 major trading partners might wrap by Labor Day. "If you can't get to a deal," Bessent said, "Trump is happy to go back to the high April 2 tariffs." Meanwhile, the administration's fiscal package, which includes steep cuts to SNAP benefits and other government programs, gained traction in the Senate following overnight revisions, clearing procedural hurdles and staying on pace for a vote as soon as this week. Trump also announced that the U.S. had finalized a long-sought agreement with China to resume the export of rare earth minerals crucial to American technology manufacturing. "We just signed with China the other day," Trump said, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg that the deal was "signed and sealed." Bessent elaborated on the agreement, saying that Trump had "set the table with a very important phone call" with Chinese President Xi Jinping which had led to the U.S. securing the deal. "In dealing with the world's second largest economy, we approached each other with mutual respect," he added, adding that part of the agreement was tariffs coming down and rare earth magnets starting to flow back to the U.S. "They formed the core of a lot of our industrial base," he said. The Chinese Commerce Ministry confirmed it would approve export applications for "controlled items" and in turn, the U.S. would remove several restrictive measures on Chinese technologies. The agreement is a step toward easing a two-year trade standoff that had disrupted global supply chains . Back home, the rapid ascent of Zohran Mamdani—a Democratic Socialist who upset Andrew Cuomo in New York City's mayoral primary—has given Trump a fresh political foil. Trump-allied media and political surrogates seized on Mamdani's win as a sign of rising extremism within the Democratic Party. "They're going to run the most radical candidate in the country in the biggest city in the country," Vice President JD Vance said in an interview Friday. "That contrast is perfect." Conservative groups have already begun circulating clips of Mamdani's past remarks, and Trump hinted at plans to use the young lawmaker's views to frame Democrats nationally in 2026. "The Democrats now belong to the socialists and the scammers," Trump said at a rally in Ohio earlier in the week. "This guy Mamdani—he's like the AOC of mayors. If you like riots and sanctuary cities, you'll love him." Trump spent part of the week jetting to and from a summit of NATO leaders in The Netherlands, where he claimed another major foreign policy victory as alliance members agreed to dramatically increase their defense spending targets. Under the deal, nearly all NATO countries committed to raising military investment from 2 to 5 percent of GDP by 2035 — an increase Trump has been calling for since he started his political career a decade ago. "Without the support and without the leadership of Donald Trump, it would be impossible," said Polish President Andrzej Duda, according to a White House statement summarizing reactions from leaders across Europe. The agreement, hailed by analysts and politicians as a breakthrough in transatlantic burden-sharing, was described as a "rebirth of NATO" by Dutch media. Even some longtime skeptics praised the result, including Finnish President Alexander Stubb who called it "a big win for Trump" and for Europe. Senate Foreign Relations Chair Jim Risch said: "NATO's commitment to raise defense spending to 5 percent is a tremendous achievement. New investments in defense and industrial cooperation will strengthen the core pillar of NATO." The summit closed with Trump declaring that America's allies had finally begun to shoulder their "fair share" of the burden. House Speaker Mike Johnson added, "No more free rides for the rest of the world. No more using the American taxpayer as their own personal piggy banks. THIS is the Trump effect." While Trump marked a week of substantial wins on trade, his administration also faced sharp criticism and legal controversy on several domestic and foreign fronts. A federal judge in Newark released Mahmoud Khalil, a Columbia University graduate and legal U.S. resident, who had spent 104 days in detention. The Trump administration accused him of spreading antisemitism through pro-Palestinian activism and moved to deport him. Judge Michael E. Farbiarz granted bail, citing evidence that the detention was politically motivated. In another courtroom loss, a Nashville judge ordered the release of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran man who was wrongly deported back in March. Judge Barbara D. Holmes dismissed claims that Abrego was a gang member or trafficker, saying prosecutors had exaggerated their case. "Abrego has no reported criminal history of any kind," she wrote. A leaked U.S. intelligence report also contradicted Trump's public statements about the impact of recent airstrikes on Iran. The Defense Intelligence Agency concluded in a low-confidence initial assessment that the strikes caused only limited delays to Iran's nuclear program and failed to destroy key underground sites. Trump had described the attacks as having "obliterated" the country's nuclear capacity. Still, the IAEA acknowledged the centrifuges at the Fordow enrichment facility had been destroyed, and Israeli intelligence contradicted the claims that the strikes were only partially successful. Poll numbers from Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin added to the mounting pressure. Net approval for Trump on inflation is now at -22.6 percent, with trade at -14.7 percent and the economy at -13.4 percent. Immigration, once a Trump strength, has dropped to -3.7 percent, following backlash to aggressive ICE operations and high-profile deportation cases. Related Articles Ex-NASA Chief Sounds Alarm Over Space Agency's FutureExclusive: Joe Exotic Shares Updates on Prison Life and Deported HusbandDonald Trump Voters Are Losing Faith With TrumpTrump Reacts to 'Great, Big, Beautiful Bill' Senate Vote 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
