Government says EU reset is a 'huge boost for growth' - does the claim stack up?
The government describes the reset it has negotiated as a 'huge boost for growth'. It's definitely a boost.
Many of the border checks and inspections, and much of the paperwork that Brexit created for trade in food, plants, and animals will go, reducing costs, hassle, and queues at the border.
The agreement on the trading of carbon emissions will mean British steel, aluminium, and energy companies avoid penalties on their exports to the EU from next year.
The government has run the numbers and says these things will add £9 billion to the UK economy by 2040.
UK and EU strike post-Brexit deal on food, fishing, defence and passports
What has Starmer agreed to in 'win-win' deal with EU?
Put another way: economic growth in 15 years will be 0.3% higher than it would be without the EU reset. But that offsets only a little of the losses Brexit has caused.
The government's own forecaster, The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), assumes that leaving the European Union on the terms Boris Johnson's government agreed will leave the UK economy 4% smaller in the long run than it would otherwise have been.
The government says the trade deal could also lower food prices and increase choice in the supermarket. The question is: will it do either of these things in a way that will leave the average person feeling better off?
John Springford, Associate Fellow at the Centre for European Reform, is doubtful.
'I think the price of goods will come down a bit, certainly in the food that we import from the EU and we might get a bit of a better range, but I don't think it's really going to make a really noticeable difference to people's shopping bills,' he told ITV News.
The government hasn't explained clearly how its £9 billion figure has been arrived at.
Springford thinks the boost to GDP is slightly smaller. 'Around 0.1% over the next decade or so,' he estimates.
The economic benefits of this deal are more modest than perhaps some in government suggest, but tonight the chancellor is indicating this is just the beginning.
The relationship will be finessed further in the years to come.
Rachel Reeves insists the UK will not be rejoining the single market, the customs union, and there won't be a return to freedom of movement for EU citizens.
The chancellor does want an agreement that will make it easier for British artists to tour the EU.
Sir Elton John has previously complained that all musicians face huge extra costs as a result of Brexit.
At some point, the government will agree to a Youth Mobility Scheme, allowing more young Europeans to come to live and work in the UK for a limited period.
How many? How long? Will they pay 'home' fees to attend UK universities? How is such a scheme compatible with the pledge to cut net migration?
The government won't say. The answer to these hugely sensitive political questions has been kicked down the road.
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The Guardian
40 minutes ago
- The Guardian
He was the EU's great Brexit survivor. Can Maroš Šefčovič now pull off a trade deal with Trump?
In May 2019 Maroš Šefčovič was travelling with Donald Trump and his entourage to a liquefied natural gas export terminal in Hackberry, Louisiana. The then European Commission vice-president in charge of energy had flown with Trump onboard Air Force One, calling his wife as the privilege of a first-time flyer on the presidential plane. Once at the facility, Trump gave a typically rambling speech, in which he name-checked Šefčovič from the stage, pointing into the crowd like a gameshow host: 'Maroš, thank you very much. Thank you.' 'Of course,' recalled someone familiar with the day, 'when Trump pronounced his name it was a bit of a disaster'. But for a top-ranking official of a multilateral organisation, this warm welcome was probably as good as it gets when it comes to the US president. More than six years later, Šefčovič is tasked with negotiating a trade deal with the second Trump administration. The pressure is on. Trump, who claims the EU was formed to 'screw the US', has threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the bloc's imports if there is no deal by 9 July. With the deadline looming, Šefčovič is back in Washington on Wednesday, where he is due to hold talks with his counterparts ahead of the US 4 July independence day holiday. Otherwise, he is crisscrossing the world, racing to nail down trade pacts with several countries, including India, the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, while navigating Europe's complex relationship with China. During one intense week in May he spent just two nights in a bed, otherwise resting in planes during an itinerary taking in France, Germany, Singapore, Japan and Kenya. Of the current crop of EU commissioners, the Slovak diplomat is the longest-serving. Since arriving at the Berlaymont headquarters in 2009, he has built up a reputation as a reliable and trustworthy fixer. 'He is always in a good mood, always trying to find a way,' a senior EU diplomat told the Guardian. 'He is never in an extreme mood [of] 'lets start a trade war'.' Usually wearing a tie and matching pocket square, often with a smile and a joke, Šefčovič is seen as a diligent problem solver, not seeking to outshine his boss, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen. Although few mangle his name as spectacularly as Trump, plenty in Brussels mispronounce the Slovak č, pronounced 'ch'. Popular with his staff, he is reserved with the media, almost never giving interviews. 'He is the kind of person who doesn't make enemies. That is why when there is something difficult to do you ask him,' said Jean De Ruyt, a veteran Belgian diplomat, who worked alongside Šefčovič in the mid 2000s. All his diplomatic nous was needed when he took charge of the Brexit withdrawal agreement in February 2020 for the EU. The UK had just finalised its acrimonious divorce. Relations between Brussels and Boris Johnson's government were tense and mistrustful. Despite the froideur, Šefčovič struck up a rapport with his opposite number, Michael Gove, culminating in a handwritten note signed by the two men to resolve disputes over the Northern Irish border, including the transportation of chilled meats. Gove nicknamed Šefčovič 'the sausage king'. But it crumbled when Gove was succeeded by the Brexit negotiator David Frost, known as 'Frosty the No Man'. After the switch, the UK decided unilaterally not to apply parts of the painstakingly negotiated Northern Ireland protocol. It was a tough blow for Šefčovič, who had pushed EU officials to do the maximum. 'I'd say that hurt him a lot. He had been pragmatic. He pushed his officials to go as far as they could go,' a UK source told the Guardian. But although Šefčovič launched legal action, he held off on a blazing trade war. In the end, patience paid off and he outlasted five British Conservative interlocutors: Gove, Frost, Liz Truss, James Cleverly and David Cameron. Colleagues praise his willingness to listen, whether to Swiss trade unions or Northern Irish politicians. But it is not just meeting and greeting. 'He has a way of creating an atmosphere that is conducive to creating a solution,' one senior EU official said. The meetings with Cleverly were some of the liveliest, the person recalled: 'They would have the meeting rooms crying with laughter through their banter.' Cleverly, the foreign secretary who negotiated the Windsor framework with Šefčovič, told the Guardian their good personal relationship had made a difference. 'We had to explore ideas that, had they been leaked in an incomplete fashion, would have been incredibly damaging to one of us, or the other, or indeed both.' Cleverly said he felt able to present proposals knowing 'the conversation wouldn't be used as some kind of leverage or wouldn't be leaked'. Against this smooth record, one failure stands out: Šefčovič's defeat in the 2019 Slovakian presidential elections to Zuzana Čaputová, a liberal lawyer who triumphed on a platform of tolerance and anti-corruption. The election was held the year after the murders of the investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée, Martina Kušnírová. Slovakia's ruling Smer party, badly tainted by the killings, could not find anyone to stand. Šefčovič, not a Smer party member, was persuaded to run but seemed ill-cast for the role of anti-system populist that party strategists wanted. Nonetheless, facing Čaputová in the final round, Šefčovič attacked her supposed 'super-liberal agenda' as being against Christian values. Shocking some EU observers, he criticised same-sex partnerships and the European policy of migrant quotas. Martin Burgr, a political strategist on Čaputová's team, said Šefčovič began as 'a very decent opponent', but by the end 'was forced … to be harder and more populistic'. That was misguided, Burgr suggested: 'He was seen as a liberal from Europe, as a Brussels guy, not a conservative person. I think this was a mistake to try to make him something that he wasn't and that he is not.' Since that defeat, Šefčovič has been twice renominated as Slovakia's EU commissioner. Returning in 2024, he was given the trade brief, one of the biggest jobs in the commission, reporting directly to von der Leyen. He has a good relationship with his workaholic boss, another pragmatic dealmaker. The two are the only senior EU officials said to use the basement gym in the commission's headquarters. Šefčovič, a student athlete, favours Diet Coke, and walks his two golden retrievers twice a day. Meantime, he has plenty on his plate. European insiders are downbeat about the prospects of a zero-tariff deal with the US. 'I cannot imagine how we will agree,' the senior EU diplomat said. 'They [the US] want to collect tariffs; they want to be beautifully rich.' But Šefčovič will not give up, the person insisted. 'He will be coming with new proposals, other proposals, trying to convince.'
South Wales Guardian
2 hours ago
- South Wales Guardian
Home Office unaware how many might have overstayed skilled worker visa, MPs warn
The Public Accounts Committee (PAC), which examines the value for money of Government projects, said the Home Office had not analysed exit checks since the skilled worker visa route was introduced in 2020 under the Conservatives. Some 1.18 million people applied to come to the UK on this route – to attract skilled workers in the wake of Brexit – between its launch in December of that year and the end of 2024. Around 630,000 of those were dependants of the main visa applicant. But the PAC said there is both a lack of knowledge around what people do when their visas expire and that the expansion of the route in 2022 to attract staff for the struggling social care sector led to the exploitation of some migrant workers. Its report said there was 'widespread evidence of workers suffering debt bondage, working excessive hours and exploitative conditions', but adds there is 'no reliable data on the extent of abuses'. It noted that the fact a person's right to remain in the UK is dependent on their employer under the sponsorship model means migrant workers are 'vulnerable to exploitation'. Figures published earlier this year suggested thousands of care workers have come to the UK in recent years under sponsors whose licences were later revoked, in estimates suggesting the scale of exploitation in the system. The Home Office said more than 470 sponsor licences in the care sector had been revoked between July 2022 and December 2024 in a crackdown on abuse and exploitation. More than 39,000 workers were associated with those sponsors since October 2020, the department said. In its report, published on Friday, the PAC said: 'The cross-government response to tackling the exploitation of migrant workers has been insufficient and, within this, the Home Office's response has been slow and ineffective.' It also noted a lack of information around what happens to people when their visas expire, stating that the Home Office had said the only way it can tell if people are still in the country is to match its own data with airline passenger information. The report said: 'The Home Office has not analysed exit checks since the route was introduced and does not know what proportion of people return to their home country after their visa has expired, and how many may be working illegally in the United Kingdom.' Committee chairman Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown said while the then-Tory government had 'moved swiftly to open up the visa system to help the social care system cope during the pandemic', the speed and volume of applications 'came at a painfully high cost – to the safety of workers from the depredations of labour market abuses, and the integrity of the system from people not following the rules'. He added: 'There has long been mounting evidence of serious issues with the system, laid bare once again in our inquiry. 'And yet basic information, such as how many people on skilled worker visas have been modern slavery victims, and whether people leave the UK after their visas expire, seems to still not have been gathered by Government.' Earlier this week legislation to end the recruitment of care workers from abroad was introduced to Parliament as part of a raft of immigration reforms. The move has sparked concerns from the adult social care sector, with the GMB union describing the decision as 'potentially catastrophic' due to the reliance on migrant workers, with some 130,000 vacancies across England. The Home Office believes there are 40,000 potential members of staff originally brought over by 'rogue' providers who could work in the sector while UK staff are trained up. Sir Geoffrey warned that unless there is 'effective cross-government working, there is a risk that these changes will exacerbate challenges for the care sector'. He said the Government must 'develop a deeper understanding of the role that immigration plays in sector workforce strategies, as well as how domestic workforce plans will help address skills shortages', warning that it 'no longer has the excuse of the global crisis caused by the pandemic if it operates this system on the fly, and without due care'. Adis Sehic, policy manager at charity the Work Rights Centre, said the report 'unequivocally finds that the sponsorship system is making migrant workers vulnerable to exploitation because it ties workers to employers' and that the Home Office had 'simply relied on sponsors' goodwill to comply with immigration rules'. He added: 'This report is yet more damning evidence that the principle of sponsorship, which ties migrant workers in the UK to their employer, is inherently unsafe for workers and, in our view, breaches their human rights. 'Structural reform of the sponsorship system must urgently be undertaken if this Government is to meaningfully uphold its commitments relating to employment and human rights.' Among its recommendations, the PAC said the Home Office should work with relevant government bodies to 'establish an agreed response to tackling exploitation risks and consequences' and identify what data is needed, including 'how to better understand what happens to people at the end of their visa and the effectiveness of checks on sponsoring organisations'. It said a clear method must be set out on assessing what happens when visas end, 'specifically what measures are in place or will be put in place to record when people leave the country'. The Home Office has been contacted for comment.
Rhyl Journal
2 hours ago
- Rhyl Journal
Home Office unaware how many might have overstayed skilled worker visa, MPs warn
The Public Accounts Committee (PAC), which examines the value for money of Government projects, said the Home Office had not analysed exit checks since the skilled worker visa route was introduced in 2020 under the Conservatives. Some 1.18 million people applied to come to the UK on this route – to attract skilled workers in the wake of Brexit – between its launch in December of that year and the end of 2024. Around 630,000 of those were dependants of the main visa applicant. But the PAC said there is both a lack of knowledge around what people do when their visas expire and that the expansion of the route in 2022 to attract staff for the struggling social care sector led to the exploitation of some migrant workers. Its report said there was 'widespread evidence of workers suffering debt bondage, working excessive hours and exploitative conditions', but adds there is 'no reliable data on the extent of abuses'. It noted that the fact a person's right to remain in the UK is dependent on their employer under the sponsorship model means migrant workers are 'vulnerable to exploitation'. Figures published earlier this year suggested thousands of care workers have come to the UK in recent years under sponsors whose licences were later revoked, in estimates suggesting the scale of exploitation in the system. The Home Office said more than 470 sponsor licences in the care sector had been revoked between July 2022 and December 2024 in a crackdown on abuse and exploitation. More than 39,000 workers were associated with those sponsors since October 2020, the department said. In its report, published on Friday, the PAC said: 'The cross-government response to tackling the exploitation of migrant workers has been insufficient and, within this, the Home Office's response has been slow and ineffective.' It also noted a lack of information around what happens to people when their visas expire, stating that the Home Office had said the only way it can tell if people are still in the country is to match its own data with airline passenger information. The report said: 'The Home Office has not analysed exit checks since the route was introduced and does not know what proportion of people return to their home country after their visa has expired, and how many may be working illegally in the United Kingdom.' Committee chairman Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown said while the then-Tory government had 'moved swiftly to open up the visa system to help the social care system cope during the pandemic', the speed and volume of applications 'came at a painfully high cost – to the safety of workers from the depredations of labour market abuses, and the integrity of the system from people not following the rules'. He added: 'There has long been mounting evidence of serious issues with the system, laid bare once again in our inquiry. 'And yet basic information, such as how many people on skilled worker visas have been modern slavery victims, and whether people leave the UK after their visas expire, seems to still not have been gathered by Government.' Earlier this week legislation to end the recruitment of care workers from abroad was introduced to Parliament as part of a raft of immigration reforms. The move has sparked concerns from the adult social care sector, with the GMB union describing the decision as 'potentially catastrophic' due to the reliance on migrant workers, with some 130,000 vacancies across England. The Home Office believes there are 40,000 potential members of staff originally brought over by 'rogue' providers who could work in the sector while UK staff are trained up. Sir Geoffrey warned that unless there is 'effective cross-government working, there is a risk that these changes will exacerbate challenges for the care sector'. He said the Government must 'develop a deeper understanding of the role that immigration plays in sector workforce strategies, as well as how domestic workforce plans will help address skills shortages', warning that it 'no longer has the excuse of the global crisis caused by the pandemic if it operates this system on the fly, and without due care'. Adis Sehic, policy manager at charity the Work Rights Centre, said the report 'unequivocally finds that the sponsorship system is making migrant workers vulnerable to exploitation because it ties workers to employers' and that the Home Office had 'simply relied on sponsors' goodwill to comply with immigration rules'. He added: 'This report is yet more damning evidence that the principle of sponsorship, which ties migrant workers in the UK to their employer, is inherently unsafe for workers and, in our view, breaches their human rights. 'Structural reform of the sponsorship system must urgently be undertaken if this Government is to meaningfully uphold its commitments relating to employment and human rights.' Among its recommendations, the PAC said the Home Office should work with relevant government bodies to 'establish an agreed response to tackling exploitation risks and consequences' and identify what data is needed, including 'how to better understand what happens to people at the end of their visa and the effectiveness of checks on sponsoring organisations'. It said a clear method must be set out on assessing what happens when visas end, 'specifically what measures are in place or will be put in place to record when people leave the country'. The Home Office has been contacted for comment.
