Hugh Johnson warns: Market entering volatile, trendless phase amid tariff chaos
market
," says Hugh Johnson,
Hugh Johnson
Economics.
Every day we have some or the other announcement. Today again Donald Trump has proposed 35% tariffs on Canada. Given the macro challenges that you are facing and the outlook for interest rate environment for the next few months, how do you view the macroeconomic landscape and what impact will this have on the American market?
Hugh Johnson:
Well, you can obviously see that it is extraordinarily volatile and unpredictable. I mean, one thing that is a characteristic of what we are seeing today is the same thing that we saw in 2018 and 2019 during the first Trump administration or the first Trump trade war and that is an on again, off again sort of phenomena where you have tariffs that are levied one day and the next day they are reversed in response to a decline in the market.
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I would really come down to the bottom line that is this going to be an extremely volatile and let us call it a volatile and trendless market. There will be good days and there will be bad days, but I do not think that you can say this is the start of a new bull market and I do not think at the same time that this is the start or we are in line for a bear market. Trendless and volatile is probably what you are going to see for the next month or two in response to an extremely volatile public policy from the US or from the Trump administration.
I wanted to ask you about the tariffs that have been proposed for Brazil and also on copper imports that 50% tariff that has been announced by Trump. So, how do you expect that to affect global supply chains especially in manufacturing and commodity segments?
Hugh Johnson:
This is starting to shape up or to sort of mirror what happened in 2018 and 19.Of course, we are starting next week when we start to get in
US inflation numbers
for the month of June, you will start to see the
impact of tariffs
, the increase in prices start to creep into the numbers.
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You will see that in, for example, the consumer price index, which will be released next week, should show 0.3% increase, 0.3 does not mean much, but the year-over-year number is probably going to be a little bit unsettling and will again indicate some of the impact on tariffs.
The second thing that we are starting to see is we are starting to see an ongoing, but we are starting to see the decline or the contraction in US consumption. Consumer spending is not very-very good.
And when we look at the second quarter, although I will tell you the number for the second quarter looks like it will be okay, like 1.8%, when you compare it to the first quarter which was only 0.5%, it is still the case that consumer spending is slowing.
So, what I am really saying very-very succinctly is that we are starting to see or we are going to see numbers over the next couple of weeks which will show you the impact of tariffs and they are not going to be pretty numbers.
But if you track the oil market very-very closely, we have several developments that have come in over there as well. OPEC plus is expecting demand from China to slow down and China being the biggest importer of Brent crude that is likely to weigh heavy on
Brent crude prices
over the next few months. How do you view this setup especially in the landscape of tariffs and what kind of impact will that have on the oil market?
Hugh Johnson:
If you talk about something that is unpredictable, the oil market is probably as unpredictable as anything. We are in a period, and when I say a period, two to five years where we are going to have declining oil prices, not significantly so, but that will be a reflection of economic conditions throughout the world.
We are going to see the shift quite frankly from oil to other non-oil commodities. There will be a lot of volatility around the numbers. So, I am talking about a $70 to $75, maybe a little bit less equilibrium price of oil with a lot of volatility around that number and of course, for the time being when we are starting to see a slowdown not only from China but a slowdown in the US.
The US economic growth is likely to become somewhere around the 1.3% or 1.4% number for 2025, that is down from a 2.8% number in 2024. So, the US is slowing, that will slow in the second quarter. It will slow in the third quarter. China will slow. The European Union will slow. Everything is a more or less in the process of slowing and quite frankly that will show up in the price of oil, but it will also show up in just general conditions.
Again, I go back to that first thing I said, which was a trendless in market, a trendless and
volatile market
environment, and I think that is really what you are, it is going to be very hard to make money and especially because our valuation right now in the US markets is a little bit high.
We are about 3.5% overvalued or over the level, I think we will reach in the fourth quarter of 2025. It is going to be very-very hard. In this kind of an economic environment and earnings environment. It is going to be very hard to make money in the equity markets. Be patient though. Every investor should understand that as was the case with all of these very difficult periods at least in my lifetime, all these difficult periods are followed by better periods or an emergence and with some patience in time you will just fine, you will make money in the equity markets but you got to be patient, you cannot jump the gun and if you go in now, you will be jumping the gun and it is going to make it more difficult for you.
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The Hindu
a few seconds ago
- The Hindu
U.S.-EU trade deal wards off further escalation but will raise costs for companies, consumers
President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have announced a sweeping trade deal that imposes 15% tariffs on most European goods, warding off Mr. Trump's threat of a 30% rate if no deal had been reached by August 1. The tariffs, or import taxes, paid when Americans buy European products could raise prices for U.S. consumers and dent profits for European companies and their partners who bring goods into the country. Here are some things to know about the trade deal between the United States and the European Union: What's in the agreement? Mr. Trump and Ms. von der Leyen's announcement, made during Mr. Trump's visit to one of his golf courses in Scotland, leaves many details to be filled in. The headline figure is a 15% tariff rate on 'the vast majority' of European goods brought into the US, including cars, computer chips and pharmaceuticals. It's lower than the 20% Mr. Trump initially proposed, and lower than his threats of 50% and then 30%. Ms. von der Leyen said the two sides agreed on zero tariffs on a range of 'strategic' goods: Aircraft and aircraft parts, certain chemicals, semiconductor equipment, certain agricultural products, and some natural resources and critical raw materials. Specifics were lacking. She said the two sides 'would keep working' to add more products to the list. Additionally, the EU side would purchase what Mr. Trump said was $750 billion worth of natural gas, oil and nuclear fuel to replace Russian energy supplies, and Europeans would invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S.. What's not in the deal? Mr. Trump said the 50% U.S. tariff on imported steel would remain; Ms. von der Leyen said the two sides agreed to further negotiations to fight a global steel glut, reduce tariffs and establish import quotas — that is, set amounts that can be imported, often at a lower rate. Mr. Trump said pharmaceuticals were not included in the deal. Ms. von der Leyen said the pharmaceuticals issue was 'on a separate sheet of paper' from Sunday's (July 27, 2025) deal. Where the $600 billion for additional investment would come from was not specified. And Ms. von der Leyen said that when it came to farm products, the EU side made clear that 'there were tariffs that could not be lowered,' without specifying which products. What's the impact? The 15% rate removes Mr. Trump's threat of a 30% tariff. It's still much higher than the average tariff before Mr. Trump came into office of around 1%, and higher than Mr. Trump's minimum 10% baseline tariff. Higher tariffs, or import taxes, on European goods mean sellers in the U.S. would have to either increase prices for consumers — risking loss of market share — or swallow the added cost in terms of lower profits. The higher tariffs are expected to hurt export earnings for European firms and slow the economy. The 10% baseline applied while the deal was negotiated was already sufficiently high to make the European Union's executive commission cut its growth forecast for this year from 1.3% to 0.9%. Ms. Von der Leyen said the 15% rate was 'the best we could do' and credited the deal with maintaining access to the US market and providing 'stability and predictability for companies on both sides.' What is some of the reaction to the deal? German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the deal, which avoided 'an unnecessary escalation in transatlantic trade relations" and said that 'we were able to preserve our core interests,' while adding that 'I would have very much wished for further relief in transatlantic trade.' The Federation of German Industries was blunter. "Even a 15% tariff rate will have immense negative effects on export-oriented German industry," said Wolfgang Niedermark, a member of the federation's leadership. While the rate is lower than threatened, "the big caveat to today's deal is that there is nothing on paper, yet," said Carsten Brzeski, global chief of macro at ING bank. 'With this disclaimer in mind and at face value, today's agreement would clearly bring an end to the uncertainty of recent months. An escalation of the US-EU trade tensions would have been a severe risk for the global economy," Mr. Brzeski said. 'This risk seems to have been avoided.' What about car companies? Asked if European carmakers could still sell cars at 15%, Ms. von der Leyen said the rate was much lower than the current 27.5%. That has been the rate under Mr. Trump's 25% tariff on cars from all countries, plus the preexisting U.S. car tariff of 2.5%. The impact is likely to be substantial on some companies, given that automaker Volkswagen said it suffered a $1.5 billion hit to profit in the first half of the year from the higher tariffs. Mercedes-Benz dealers in the US have said they are holding the line on 2025 model year prices 'until further notice.' The German automaker has a partial tariff shield because it makes 35% of the Mercedes-Benz vehicles sold in the U.S. in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, but the company said it expects prices to undergo 'significant increases' in coming years. What were the issues dividing the two sides? Before Mr. Trump returned to office, the U.S. and the EU maintained generally low tariff levels in what is the largest bilateral trading relationship in the world, with some USD 2 trillion in annual trade. Together, the U.S. and the EU have 44% of the global economy. The U.S. rate averaged 1.47% for European goods, while the EU's averaged 1.35% for American products, according to the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. Mr. Trump has complained about the EU's 198 billion-euro trade surplus in goods, which shows Americans buy more from European businesses than the other way around, and has said the European market is not open enough for U.S.-made cars. However, American companies fill some of the trade gap by outselling the EU when it comes to services such as cloud computing, travel bookings, and legal and financial services. And some 30% of European imports are from American-owned companies, according to the European Central Bank.
Mint
a few seconds ago
- Mint
EU reaches tariff deal with US to avert painful trade blow
The US and European Union agreed on a hard-fought deal that will see the bloc face 15% tariffs on most of its exports, including automobiles, staving off a trade war that could have delivered a hammer blow to the global economy. The pact was concluded less than a week before a Friday deadline for President Donald Trump's higher tariffs to take effect and was quickly praised by several European leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who called it 'sustainable.' Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the deal Sunday at his golf club in Turnberry, Scotland, although they didn't disclose the full details of the pact or release any written materials. The 15% rates will take effect Aug. 1, according to a US official. 'It's the biggest of all the deals,' Trump said, while von der Leyen added it would bring 'stability' and 'predictability.' US equity futures climbed, with S&P 500 contracts rising 0.4% after the index notched its fifth-straight all-time high on Friday. The deal would leave EU exports facing much higher tariffs than the bloc would charge for imports from the US, with von der Leyen saying the aim is to rebalance a trade surplus with the US. But those kinds of tradeoffs in the agreement angered some European industry groups, with Germany's main lobby saying it 'sends a fatal signal to the closely intertwined economies on both sides of the Atlantic.' Von der Leyen and Trump also differed on some of the key terms of the deal they announced. The US president said the tariff level would apply to 'automobiles and everything else,' but not pharmaceuticals and metals. The chief of the EU's executive arm said later at a news conference that the 15% rate would be all inclusive, wouldn't stack on top of industry-specific tariffs and would cover drugs, chips and cars. Metals duties 'will be cut and a quota system will be put in place,' she said. 'We have 15% for pharmaceuticals. Whatever the decision later on is, of the president of the US, how to deal with pharmaceuticals in general globally, that's on a different sheet of paper,' von der Leyen said, adding that the overall rate 'is not to be underestimated but it was the best we could get.' Senior US officials later said that the two sides agreed on a 15% tariff level for the EU's pharmaceutical exports. A separate Section 232 probe on pharmaceuticals is still coming over the next three weeks, but the EU tariff level will remain at 15%, the officials added. The EU agreed to purchase $750 billion in American energy products, invest $600 billion in the US on top of existing expenditures, open up countries' markets to trade with the US at zero tariffs and purchase 'vast amounts' of military equipment, Trump said. Von der Leyen said no decisions have been made on European wine and spirits, but the matter would be sorted out soon. Key to getting the 15% rate to apply to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors was the bloc's promise to make US investments, according to people familiar with the matter. Ahead of the meeting, the EU was expecting a 15% charge on its imports to also apply to most pharmaceuticals. The products had been one of the negotiation's main sticking points. Without a deal, Bloomberg Economics estimated that the total US average effective tariff rate would rise to nearly 18% on Aug. 1 from 13.5% under current policies. The new deal brings that number down to 16%. The deal doesn't cover the EU's steel and aluminum exports, which will remain subject to 50% tariffs, according to senior US officials. Aerospace tariffs, meanwhile, will remain at 0% pending the outcome of a Section 232 probe, the officials added. Officials had discussed terms for a quota system for steel and aluminum imports, which would face a lower import tax below a certain threshold and would be charged the regular 50% rate above it. The EU had also been seeking quotas and a cap on future industry-specific tariffs. For months, Trump has threatened most of the world with high tariffs with the goal of shrinking US trade deficits. But the prospect of those duties — and Trump's unpredictable nature — put world capitals on edge. In May, he threatened to impose a 50% duty on nearly all EU goods, adding pressure that accelerated negotiations, before lowering that to 30%. The transatlantic pact removes a major risk for markets and the global economy — a trade war involving $1.7 trillion worth of cross-border commerce — even though it means European shipments to the US are getting hit with a higher tax at the border. The goals, Trump said, were more production in the US and wider access for American exporters to the European market. Von der Leyen acknowledged part of the drive behind the talks was a reordering of trade, but cast it as beneficial for both sides. 'The starting point was an imbalance,' von der Leyen said. 'We wanted to rebalance the trade we made, and we wanted to do it in a way that trade goes on between the two of us across the Atlantic, because the two biggest economies should have a good trade flow.' The announcement capped off months of often tense shuttle diplomacy between Brussels and Washington. The two sides appeared close to a deal earlier this month when Trump made his 30% threat. The EU had prepared to put levies on about €100 billion ($117 billion) — about a third of American exports to the bloc — if a deal wasn't reached and Trump followed through on his warning. US and European negotiators had been zeroing in on an agreement this past week, and the decision for von der Leyen to meet Trump at his signature golf property brought the standoff to a dramatic conclusion. The EU for weeks indicated a willingness to accept an unbalanced pact involving a reduced rate of around 15%, while seeking relief from levies on industries critical to the European economy. The US president has also imposed 25% duties on cars and double that rate on steel and aluminum, as well as copper. Several exporters in Asia, including Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan, have negotiated reciprocal rates between 15% to 20%, and the EU saw Japan's deal for 15% on autos as a breakthrough worth seeking as well. Washington's talks also continue with Switzerland, South Korea and Taiwan. Trump said he is 'looking at deals with three or four other countries' but 'for the most part' others with smaller economies or less significant trading relationships with the US would receive letters simply setting tariff rates. Earlier: Trump Says Countries Will Face Tariffs Ranging From 15% to 50% Trump announced a range of tariffs on almost all US trading partners in April, declaring his intent to revive domestic manufacturing, help pay for a massive tax cut and address economic imbalances he has said are detrimental to US workers. He put them on pause a week later when investors panicked. Trump's decades-old complaints about the global trading system heap particularly sharp scorn on the EU, which he has accused of being formed to 'screw' the US. The bloc was established in the years following World War II in order to establish economic stability on the continent. The president has lashed out at non-tariff barriers for American companies to do business across the 27-nation bloc. Those include the EU's value-added tax, levies on digital services, and safety and environmental regulations. Weeks of negotiations tested the EU's willingness to digest what is seen as an asymmetrical outcome, a senior EU diplomat said, but one that offers an opportunity to continue the talks without escalating further. --With assistance from Michael G. Wilson, Skylar Woodhouse, Katharina Rosskopf, Kasia Klimasinska, Sam Kim, Jorge Valero, Jenny Leonard, Tommaso Ebhardt, Arne Delfs, Se Young Lee and Richard Bravo.
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Business Standard
a few seconds ago
- Business Standard
US-EU trade deal wards off escalation, to raise costs for firms, consumers
President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have announced a sweeping trade deal that imposes 15 per cent tariffs on most European goods, warding off Trump's threat of a 30 per cent rate if no deal had been reached by August 1. The tariffs, or import taxes, paid when Americans buy European products could raise prices for US consumers and dent profits for European companies and their partners who bring goods into the country. Here are some things to know about the trade deal between the United States and the European Union: What's in the agreement? Trump and von der Leyen's announcement, made during Trump's visit to one of his golf courses in Scotland, leaves many details to be filled in. The headline figure is a 15 per cent tariff rate on the vast majority of European goods brought into the US, including cars, computer chips and pharmaceuticals. It's lower than the 20 per cent Trump initially proposed, and lower than his threats of 50 per cent and then 30 per cent. Von der Leyen said the two sides agreed on zero tariffs on both sides for a range of strategic goods: Aircraft and aircraft parts, certain chemicals, semiconductor equipment, certain agricultural products, and some natural resources and critical raw materials. Specifics were lacking. She said the two sides would keep working to add more products to the list. Additionally, the EU side would purchase what Trump said was USD 750 billion worth of natural gas, oil and nuclear fuel to replace Russian energy supplies, and Europeans would invest an additional USD 600 billion in the US. What's not in the deal? Trump said the 50 per cent US tariff on imported steel would remain; von der Leyen said the two sides agreed to further negotiations to fight a global steel glut, reduce tariffs and establish import quotas that is, set amounts that can be imported, often at a lower rate. Trump said pharmaceuticals were not included in the deal. Von der Leyen said the pharmaceuticals issue was on a separate sheet of paper from Sunday's deal. Where the $600 billion for additional investment would come from was not specified. And von der Leyen said that when it came to farm products, the EU side made clear that there were tariffs that could not be lowered, without specifying which products. What's the impact? The 15 per cent rate removes Trump's threat of a 30 per cent tariff. It's still much higher than the average tariff before Trump came into office of around 1 per cent, and higher than Trump's minimum 10 per cent baseline tariff. Higher tariffs, or import taxes, on European goods mean sellers in the US would have to either increase prices for consumers risking loss of market share or swallow the added cost in terms of lower profits. The higher tariffs are expected to hurt export earnings for European firms and slow the economy. The 10 per cent baseline applied while the deal was negotiated was already sufficiently high to make the European Union's executive commission cut its growth forecast for this year from 1.3 per cent to 0.9 per cent. Von der Leyen said the 15 per cent rate was the best we could do and credited the deal with maintaining access to the US market and providing stability and predictability for companies on both sides. What is some of the reaction to the deal? German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the deal which avoided an unnecessary escalation in transatlantic trade relations" and said that we were able to preserve our core interests, while adding that I would have very much wished for further relief in transatlantic trade. The Federation of German Industries was blunter. "Even a 15 per cent tariff rate will have immense negative effects on export-oriented German industry," said Wolfgang Niedermark, a member of the federation's leadership. While the rate is lower than threatened, "the big caveat to today's deal is that there is nothing on paper, yet," said Carsten Brzeski, global chief of macro at ING bank. With this disclaimer in mind and at face value, today's agreement would clearly bring an end to the uncertainty of recent months. An escalation of the US-EU trade tensions would have been a severe risk for the global economy," Brzeski said. This risk seems to have been avoided. What about car companies? Asked if European carmakers could still sell cars at 15 per cent, von der Leyen said the rate was much lower than the current 27.5 per cent. That has been the rate under Trump's 25 per cent tariff on cars from all countries, plus the preexisting US car tariff of 2.5 per cent. The impact is likely to be substantial on some companies, given that automaker Volkswagen said it suffered a $1.5 billion hit to profit in the first half of the year from the higher tariffs. Mercedes-Benz dealers in the US have said they are holding the line on 2025 model year prices until further notice. The German automaker has a partial tariff shield because it makes 35 per cent of the Mercedes-Benz vehicles sold in the US in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, but the company said it expects prices to undergo significant increases in coming years. What were the issues dividing the two sides? Before Trump returned to office, the US and the EU maintained generally low tariff levels in what is the largest bilateral trading relationship in the world, with some USD 2 trillion in annual trade. Together the US and the EU have 44 per cent of the global economy. The US rate averaged 1.47 per cent for European goods, while the EU's averaged 1.35 per cent for American products, according to the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. Trump has complained about the EU's 198 billion-euro trade surplus in goods, which shows Americans buy more from European businesses than the other way around, and has said the European market is not open enough for US-made cars. However, American companies fill some of the trade gap by outselling the EU when it comes to services such as cloud computing, travel bookings, and legal and financial services. And some 30 per cent of European imports are from American-owned companies, according to the European Central Bank. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
