Latest news with #HughJohnson
Economic Times
11-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Hugh Johnson warns: Market entering volatile, trendless phase amid tariff chaos
Agencies We are about 3.5% overvalued or over the level, I think we will reach in the fourth quarter of 2025. It is going to be very-very hard. "I would really come down to the bottom line that is this going to be an extremely volatile and let us call it a volatile and trendless market," says Hugh Johnson, Hugh Johnson Economics. Every day we have some or the other announcement. Today again Donald Trump has proposed 35% tariffs on Canada. Given the macro challenges that you are facing and the outlook for interest rate environment for the next few months, how do you view the macroeconomic landscape and what impact will this have on the American market? Hugh Johnson: Well, you can obviously see that it is extraordinarily volatile and unpredictable. I mean, one thing that is a characteristic of what we are seeing today is the same thing that we saw in 2018 and 2019 during the first Trump administration or the first Trump trade war and that is an on again, off again sort of phenomena where you have tariffs that are levied one day and the next day they are reversed in response to a decline in the market. I would really come down to the bottom line that is this going to be an extremely volatile and let us call it a volatile and trendless market. There will be good days and there will be bad days, but I do not think that you can say this is the start of a new bull market and I do not think at the same time that this is the start or we are in line for a bear market. Trendless and volatile is probably what you are going to see for the next month or two in response to an extremely volatile public policy from the US or from the Trump administration. I wanted to ask you about the tariffs that have been proposed for Brazil and also on copper imports that 50% tariff that has been announced by Trump. So, how do you expect that to affect global supply chains especially in manufacturing and commodity segments? Hugh Johnson: This is starting to shape up or to sort of mirror what happened in 2018 and course, we are starting next week when we start to get in US inflation numbers for the month of June, you will start to see the impact of tariffs, the increase in prices start to creep into the numbers. You will see that in, for example, the consumer price index, which will be released next week, should show 0.3% increase, 0.3 does not mean much, but the year-over-year number is probably going to be a little bit unsettling and will again indicate some of the impact on tariffs. The second thing that we are starting to see is we are starting to see an ongoing, but we are starting to see the decline or the contraction in US consumption. Consumer spending is not very-very good. And when we look at the second quarter, although I will tell you the number for the second quarter looks like it will be okay, like 1.8%, when you compare it to the first quarter which was only 0.5%, it is still the case that consumer spending is slowing. So, what I am really saying very-very succinctly is that we are starting to see or we are going to see numbers over the next couple of weeks which will show you the impact of tariffs and they are not going to be pretty numbers. But if you track the oil market very-very closely, we have several developments that have come in over there as well. OPEC plus is expecting demand from China to slow down and China being the biggest importer of Brent crude that is likely to weigh heavy on Brent crude prices over the next few months. How do you view this setup especially in the landscape of tariffs and what kind of impact will that have on the oil market? Hugh Johnson: If you talk about something that is unpredictable, the oil market is probably as unpredictable as anything. We are in a period, and when I say a period, two to five years where we are going to have declining oil prices, not significantly so, but that will be a reflection of economic conditions throughout the world. We are going to see the shift quite frankly from oil to other non-oil commodities. There will be a lot of volatility around the numbers. So, I am talking about a $70 to $75, maybe a little bit less equilibrium price of oil with a lot of volatility around that number and of course, for the time being when we are starting to see a slowdown not only from China but a slowdown in the US. The US economic growth is likely to become somewhere around the 1.3% or 1.4% number for 2025, that is down from a 2.8% number in 2024. So, the US is slowing, that will slow in the second quarter. It will slow in the third quarter. China will slow. The European Union will slow. Everything is a more or less in the process of slowing and quite frankly that will show up in the price of oil, but it will also show up in just general conditions. Again, I go back to that first thing I said, which was a trendless in market, a trendless and volatile market environment, and I think that is really what you are, it is going to be very hard to make money and especially because our valuation right now in the US markets is a little bit high. We are about 3.5% overvalued or over the level, I think we will reach in the fourth quarter of 2025. It is going to be very-very hard. In this kind of an economic environment and earnings environment. It is going to be very hard to make money in the equity markets. Be patient though. Every investor should understand that as was the case with all of these very difficult periods at least in my lifetime, all these difficult periods are followed by better periods or an emergence and with some patience in time you will just fine, you will make money in the equity markets but you got to be patient, you cannot jump the gun and if you go in now, you will be jumping the gun and it is going to make it more difficult for you.
Time of India
11-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Hugh Johnson warns: Market entering volatile, trendless phase amid tariff chaos
"I would really come down to the bottom line that is this going to be an extremely volatile and let us call it a volatile and trendless market ," says Hugh Johnson, Hugh Johnson Economics. Every day we have some or the other announcement. Today again Donald Trump has proposed 35% tariffs on Canada. Given the macro challenges that you are facing and the outlook for interest rate environment for the next few months, how do you view the macroeconomic landscape and what impact will this have on the American market? Hugh Johnson: Well, you can obviously see that it is extraordinarily volatile and unpredictable. I mean, one thing that is a characteristic of what we are seeing today is the same thing that we saw in 2018 and 2019 during the first Trump administration or the first Trump trade war and that is an on again, off again sort of phenomena where you have tariffs that are levied one day and the next day they are reversed in response to a decline in the market. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Buy Lifetime Office 365 Download Undo I would really come down to the bottom line that is this going to be an extremely volatile and let us call it a volatile and trendless market. There will be good days and there will be bad days, but I do not think that you can say this is the start of a new bull market and I do not think at the same time that this is the start or we are in line for a bear market. Trendless and volatile is probably what you are going to see for the next month or two in response to an extremely volatile public policy from the US or from the Trump administration. I wanted to ask you about the tariffs that have been proposed for Brazil and also on copper imports that 50% tariff that has been announced by Trump. So, how do you expect that to affect global supply chains especially in manufacturing and commodity segments? Hugh Johnson: This is starting to shape up or to sort of mirror what happened in 2018 and course, we are starting next week when we start to get in US inflation numbers for the month of June, you will start to see the impact of tariffs , the increase in prices start to creep into the numbers. Live Events You will see that in, for example, the consumer price index, which will be released next week, should show 0.3% increase, 0.3 does not mean much, but the year-over-year number is probably going to be a little bit unsettling and will again indicate some of the impact on tariffs. The second thing that we are starting to see is we are starting to see an ongoing, but we are starting to see the decline or the contraction in US consumption. Consumer spending is not very-very good. And when we look at the second quarter, although I will tell you the number for the second quarter looks like it will be okay, like 1.8%, when you compare it to the first quarter which was only 0.5%, it is still the case that consumer spending is slowing. So, what I am really saying very-very succinctly is that we are starting to see or we are going to see numbers over the next couple of weeks which will show you the impact of tariffs and they are not going to be pretty numbers. But if you track the oil market very-very closely, we have several developments that have come in over there as well. OPEC plus is expecting demand from China to slow down and China being the biggest importer of Brent crude that is likely to weigh heavy on Brent crude prices over the next few months. How do you view this setup especially in the landscape of tariffs and what kind of impact will that have on the oil market? Hugh Johnson: If you talk about something that is unpredictable, the oil market is probably as unpredictable as anything. We are in a period, and when I say a period, two to five years where we are going to have declining oil prices, not significantly so, but that will be a reflection of economic conditions throughout the world. We are going to see the shift quite frankly from oil to other non-oil commodities. There will be a lot of volatility around the numbers. So, I am talking about a $70 to $75, maybe a little bit less equilibrium price of oil with a lot of volatility around that number and of course, for the time being when we are starting to see a slowdown not only from China but a slowdown in the US. The US economic growth is likely to become somewhere around the 1.3% or 1.4% number for 2025, that is down from a 2.8% number in 2024. So, the US is slowing, that will slow in the second quarter. It will slow in the third quarter. China will slow. The European Union will slow. Everything is a more or less in the process of slowing and quite frankly that will show up in the price of oil, but it will also show up in just general conditions. Again, I go back to that first thing I said, which was a trendless in market, a trendless and volatile market environment, and I think that is really what you are, it is going to be very hard to make money and especially because our valuation right now in the US markets is a little bit high. We are about 3.5% overvalued or over the level, I think we will reach in the fourth quarter of 2025. It is going to be very-very hard. In this kind of an economic environment and earnings environment. It is going to be very hard to make money in the equity markets. Be patient though. Every investor should understand that as was the case with all of these very difficult periods at least in my lifetime, all these difficult periods are followed by better periods or an emergence and with some patience in time you will just fine, you will make money in the equity markets but you got to be patient, you cannot jump the gun and if you go in now, you will be jumping the gun and it is going to make it more difficult for you.
Time of India
08-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Learn lessons from Trump 1.0 to have a good idea of what to expect in next 2-4 weeks: Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson of Hugh Johnson Economics , says echoing the trade conflicts of 2018-2019, the current tariff negotiations are causing significant market volatility . The on-again, off-again nature of these discussions mirrors the Trump 1.0 era, creating substantial uncertainty for business leaders. This uncertainty, compounded by the tariffs' economic impact, is negatively affecting business confidence and, consequently, the stock market. The US has a trade deal in place with some countries. For some, there is no deal yet and for some countries like India, it looks like the deal is still in the works. How should markets look at the 9th of July deadline in terms of the tariff playbook? Hugh Johnson: You have to learn your lessons from history. All of us should learn our lessons from the so-called Trump 1.0 2018-2019 tariffs and trade wars. One of the distinct characteristics of that trade war which you are now seeing in the last couple of hours is that these are on again, off again negotiations and they are extraordinarily volatile and they lead to an extraordinarily high level of uncertainty among business people. That's what happened in 2018 and 2019. It is happening again now. It is leading to uncertainty and that uncertainty alone, let alone the economic impact of the tariffs, is creating problems for business leaders and therefore the stock market. I think that is the first thing; learn the lessons of 2018 and 2019 and you will have a good idea of what to expect in the next two to four weeks. From an equity market standpoint, do you think the ramifications and repercussions are well in the price because it has been such a long drawn process and now the deadline only gets shifted to August? Hugh Johnson: As far as the tariffs go, we have seen it a couple of times. We certainly saw that in 2018 & '19. I do not really worry about that. Keep in mind one other thing which is very important is that Trump is turning up the pressure on tariffs, trying to increase tariffs and also increasing the pressure on countries to increase the tariffs that they pay us. But the most important thing is that the US has just passed the big beautiful budget Act and there is going to be a $3.4 trillion deficit over 10 years and somebody has got to come up with the money. One of the ways to come up with the money – and we see that in just about everything we hear from this administration – is through the revenues that are generated from tariffs. I have looked very hard at those revenues that we are getting from tariffs for the last three months when we have had tariffs and quite frankly, although there is fairly substantial revenues that the US will get from tariffs and maybe even higher revenues after he gets through with this current round, it is not going to be sufficient to offset the $3.4 trillion deficit over 10 years as a result of this so-called one big beautiful budget bill. So, the US has to find those revenues to pay off that deficit. The other place, of course, is that the US will borrow the money from foreign governments. Foreign governments, foreign private and public investors have shown some reluctance to step up to the plate to buy US treasuries. So, maybe that will require higher interest rates. I do not know. But there is no question that a substantial part of the $3.4 trillion would not come from tariffs, but will have to be borrowed and borrowed again in part from foreign countries, private and public investors. Live Events You Might Also Like: India nearing US trade deal as Trump's tariff clock ticks, but caution urged: GTRI If debt is only going to go higher because of the tax cuts and tariffs will have an impact on the economy, why are US equity markets at a record high? Shouldn't they be moving the other way? Hugh Johnson: I am not sure what you are saying, but if the question has to do with the revenues that are generated as a result of declining taxes, we will start to see some offset to the lost revenues as a result of the tax reductions. But the tax reductions will also lead to increased economic activity. The Congressional Budget Office calls it the dynamics of budgets. So, we are going to see some offset, some tradeoffs there, some improvement because of increased economic activity. I think that is what you are getting at. And if that is what you are getting at, both the Congressional Budget Office and myself will agree that we will get some revenues which will offset that $3.4 trillion deficit, but not enough to make a difference. Again, it is going to be funds coming in from collections on tariffs and secondly, borrowing the money in the credit markets from both domestic US investors and public and private foreign investors, is where the money is going to come from.
Yahoo
04-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Walt Disney Company (DIS): 'Stability Is Working,' Says Jm Cramer
We recently published . The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer recently discussed. The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) is one of the largest media and entertainment companies in the world. Its shares are up by 11% year-to-date primarily on the back of 34% in gains made since early May. The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS)'s shares soared after the firm's second-quarter earnings delivered the holy grail of metrics, streaming subscribers. The numbers saw the firm report 126 million subscribers which was higher than the 123.35 million that Wall Street had penciled in. In his previous remarks about The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), Cramer discussed how the firm is caught up in the generational divide between stock market investors. Here are his recent thoughts: 'Why doesn't Hugh Johnson get any credit [for improving performance], the CFO. Well look, the theme park's now [inaudible]. What's really interesting is they're now starting to talk about the cruise ships in 26′. I would have waited until 27′. But I do think that Disney had a great quarter, I think that Hugh Johnson plays a big role and James Gorman is going to play a big role. A packed theater of moviegoers watching a blockbuster film produced by the entertainment company. As for the generational divide, here's what Cramer said: 'We pivoted to interviewing Bob Iger, CEO of Disney, who traced out his plans now that the company owns all of Hulu. The stock was around $115 when Iger started talking, and by the end of the interview, at least partly by the day, it was at $118 and change. That's a tour de force performance, the kind of value added this network proudly provides. I felt great about it, but I could feel the contempt that many younger investors have for what I think is a very strong kind of journalism where we flesh out what really matters to an iconic big capitalization stock that has everything to do with linear television, ESPN, exciting movies, cruise ships, theme parks… Who doesn't want to know about that? Well, how about the people who just stopped going to Disney World with their parents, and it's the last place they would ever be caught dead at?' While we acknowledge the potential of DIS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Walt Disney Company (DIS): 'Stability Is Working,' Says Jm Cramer
We recently published . The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer recently discussed. The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) is one of the largest media and entertainment companies in the world. Its shares are up by 11% year-to-date primarily on the back of 34% in gains made since early May. The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS)'s shares soared after the firm's second-quarter earnings delivered the holy grail of metrics, streaming subscribers. The numbers saw the firm report 126 million subscribers which was higher than the 123.35 million that Wall Street had penciled in. In his previous remarks about The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), Cramer discussed how the firm is caught up in the generational divide between stock market investors. Here are his recent thoughts: 'Why doesn't Hugh Johnson get any credit [for improving performance], the CFO. Well look, the theme park's now [inaudible]. What's really interesting is they're now starting to talk about the cruise ships in 26′. I would have waited until 27′. But I do think that Disney had a great quarter, I think that Hugh Johnson plays a big role and James Gorman is going to play a big role. A packed theater of moviegoers watching a blockbuster film produced by the entertainment company. As for the generational divide, here's what Cramer said: 'We pivoted to interviewing Bob Iger, CEO of Disney, who traced out his plans now that the company owns all of Hulu. The stock was around $115 when Iger started talking, and by the end of the interview, at least partly by the day, it was at $118 and change. That's a tour de force performance, the kind of value added this network proudly provides. I felt great about it, but I could feel the contempt that many younger investors have for what I think is a very strong kind of journalism where we flesh out what really matters to an iconic big capitalization stock that has everything to do with linear television, ESPN, exciting movies, cruise ships, theme parks… Who doesn't want to know about that? Well, how about the people who just stopped going to Disney World with their parents, and it's the last place they would ever be caught dead at?' While we acknowledge the potential of DIS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
