Oil steady as investors weigh trade optimism against potential Venezuelan supply increase

Zawya

25-07-2025

Oil prices were steady on Friday, as trade talk optimism supported the outlook for both the global economy and oil demand, balancing news of the potential for more oil supply from Venezuela.
Brent crude futures were up 18 cents, or 0.26%, at $69.36 a barrel at 1049 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 18 cents, or 0.27%, at $66.21.
For the week, Brent was up just 0.1% from last Friday's close, while WTI was heading for a loss of around 1.7%.
Brent prices have been largely range-bound between $67 and $70 a barrel for the last month, since the sharp drop in prices in late June after de-escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict.
Oil prices are "caught in largely a holding pattern brought about by inconclusive specific oil drivers", PVM analyst John Evans said.
Oil, along with stock markets, gained support from the prospect of more deals between the United States and trading partners ahead of an August 1 deadline for new tariffs on goods from an array of countries.
After the U.S. and Japan secured a trade deal this week, two European diplomats said the European Union was moving towards a deal involving a baseline U.S. tariff of 15% on EU imports, plus possible exemptions.
"Trade talk optimism appears to be offsetting expectations for stronger Venezuelan supply," ING analysts wrote in a client note on Friday.
The U.S. is preparing to allow partners of Venezuela's state-run PDVSA, starting with U.S. oil major Chevron , to operate with limitations in the sanctioned nation, sources said on Thursday.
Venezuelan oil exports could consequently increase by a little more than 200,000 barrels per day, which would be welcome news for U.S. refiners, as it would ease tightness in the heavier crude market, ING analysts wrote.
Prices were also supported this week by disruptions to Black Sea oil exports and Azeri BTC crude loading from the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
"Delays in deliveries from the Russian terminal on the Black Sea and the Turkish port on the Mediterranean are likely to have contributed to the Brent oil price rising back towards $70. Now that exports are back to normal, support for prices is likely to ease," Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.
(Reporting by Robert Harvey in London, Sudarshan Varadhan and Siyi Liu in Singapore. Editing by Mark Potter, Kirsten Donovan)