Fed's Goolsbee sees no stagflation but 'definitely' things could get worse
"But there's definitely the possibility of both things getting worse at the same time," Goolsbee said at the Aspen Ideas Festival in Aspen, Colorado, referring to unemployment and inflation. "And there you usually say, well, how long is each side's discrepancy going to last? Do you think it's temporary or do you think it's permanent? And how big is each side...that's the way I think about it." He did not give a forecast for those variables.
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The Guardian
17 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Trump's tax and spending bill passes Congress in major win for president
The US House of Representatives passed Donald Trump's massive tax and spending bill on Thursday, handing the president the first major legislative victory of his second term and sending to his desk wide-ranging legislation expected to supercharge immigration enforcement and slash federal safety net programs. The 218-214 vote came after weeks of wrangling over the measure that Trump demanded be ready for his signature by Friday, the Independence Day holiday. Written by his Republican allies in Congress and unanimously rejected by Democrats, the bill traveled an uncertain road to passage that saw multiple all-night votes in the House and Senate and negotiations that lasted until the final hours before passage. Ultimately, Republicans who had objected to its cost and contents folded, and the bill passed with just two GOP defections: Thomas Massie, a rightwing Kentucky lawmaker, and Brian Fitzpatrick, who represents a Pennsylvania district that voted for Kamala Harris in last year's election. 'We've waited long enough, some of us have literally been up for days now, but this day – this day – is a hugely important one in the history of our nation,' the Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, said, just before voting began. 'With one big, beautiful bill, we are going to make this country stronger, safer and more prosperous than ever before, and every American is going to benefit from that.' The legislation is expected to speed up and expand Immigration and Customs Enforcement deportations, and will likely make Trump's longstanding desire for a wall along the border with Mexico a reality. It also strikes a blow against the US government's efforts to fight the climate crisis by phasing out tax incentives created under Joe Biden that were intended to spur investments in electric cars, wind and solar power and other green energy technologies. The bill's centerpiece is a permanent extension of tax cuts made in 2017, during Trump's first term, as well as the creation of new, temporary exemptions for tips, overtime pay and car loan interest that the president promised voters during last year's campaign. The government will lose trillions of dollars in revenue from those provisions, and to offset their costs, Republicans approved an array of cuts to Medicaid, the federal program providing health insurance coverage to poor and disabled Americans, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Snap). Those changes are expected to cost millions of people their benefits, but the bill remains expensive, with the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) saying it will add $3.3tn to the country's debt through 2034. Democrats blasted the proposal as 'one big, ugly bill' that dismantles anti-poverty programs to fund tax breaks for the wealthy. Analyses have shown that high earners benefited most from Trump's tax policies. The Democratic House minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, made a last-ditch effort to halt the bill's passage by delivering a floor speech that lasted eight hours and 44 minutes, the longest ever. 'This is extraordinary. This assault on everyday Americans, assault on children, veterans, seniors, people with disabilities. It's incredible to me, all of this in this one, big, ugly bill,' Jeffries said. 'Ripping food out of the mouths of vulnerable Americans – that's extraordinary that that's what we're doing, extraordinary. And all of this is being done, this unprecedented assault on everyday Americans, is being unleashed on the American people, Mr Speaker, on the most vulnerable among us, all of this is being done to provide massive tax breaks to billionaire donors. Shame on this institution. If this bill passes, that's not America. We're better than this.' Trump has described the bill as crucial to the success of his second term, and congressional Republicans made its passage their top priority. It was a tall task – the GOP won small majorities in both the House and Senate in last November's election, and could afford no more than three defections in either chamber. The party's lawmakers broadly support Trump but were divided on a host of other issues. There were lawmakers who wanted big spending cuts, rapid phase-outs of green energy incentives and an expanded deduction that would mostly benefit taxpayers in Democratic-led states. Their demands butted against others who sought to moderate the bill, but over the course of weeks, Republicans leaders managed to forge a compromise. The bill is only able to affect revenue, spending and the debt limit, under the rules of budget reconciliation that allowed the GOP to avoid a filibuster by Democrats in the Senate. Under Biden, Congress's then Democratic majority had used the same procedure to pass legislation to spur the economy's recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and curb US carbon emissions. Trump's bill allocates $45bn for Ice detention facilities, $14bn for deportation operations and billions of dollars more to hire 10,000 new agents by 2029. An additional $50bn will go towards the border wall and other fortifications. Enrollees of Medicaid and Snap will face new work requirements, and states will be forced to share part of the cost of the latter program for the first time ever. The CBO estimates the bill's Medicaid changes could cost as many as 11.8 million people their healthcare, and the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities forecasts about 8 million people, or one in five recipients, may lose their Snap benefits. The legislation also forces changes to provider taxes, which states use to finance their share of Medicaid spending. That is expected to further increase the financial stress of hospitals in rural areas, and when the bill was in the Senate, a $50bn fund was added to support those facilities. Some in the GOP were openly nervous about the cuts to safety net programs that their constituents rely on. Thom Tillis, a senator who represents swing state North Carolina, refused to support the bill for those reasons, leading Trump to announce he would support a primary challenger when he stands for re-election next year. Tillis then made public his plans to retire, a potential boost for Democrats' hopes of claiming his seat. 'It is inescapable this bill will betray the promise Donald Trump made,' Tillis said on the Senate floor. 'What do I tell 663,000 people in two years or three years when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding's not there any more, guys?'
Daily Mail
27 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Trump triumphs as 'Big, Beautiful Bill' including trillions in tax cuts and $1K MAGA baby accounts passes
Congress has passed President Donald Trump 's 'Big, Beautiful Bill,' a landmark piece of tax cuts and spending legislation containing many of the Republican's campaign promises. Dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the $3.3 trillion measure took an all-encompassing, multi-year effort from Republicans in Congress to pass. After passing the House after hours of high-pressure negotiations with hold-out members, it will now head to the White House for Trump's signature. The president plans on holding a signing ceremony on Independence Day between military flyovers, including the B-2 bombers recently deployed to Iran. 'The USA is on track to break every record on growth. Go Republicans, beat the Crooked Democrats tonight! Pro-growth tax cuts never fail,' Trump wrote on Truth Social before the vote. 'We had great conversations all day, and the Republican House Majority is united, for the good of our country, delivering the biggest tax cuts in history and massive growth.' The behemoth, nearly 900-page legislative package extends the president's 2017 tax cuts and further eliminates taxes on tips and overtime - a marquee promise that the president pledged repeatedly on the campaign trail. It also doubles the child tax credit and includes a popular $1,000 'Trump investment account' - formerly known as MAGA accounts - for newborn babies. Also included in the measure are steep cuts to Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and renewable energy programs expanded by former President Joe Biden. 'We are delivering on our promise to make America great again,' Speaker Mike Johnson declared on the floor just before the passing vote. The tax cuts alone will cost $4.5 trillion over the next ten years, according to projections from the Congressional Budget Office. To offset the massive price tag Republicans included $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, mainly trimming Medicaid, the health care program for the poor and disabled. Using a parliamentary tactic called reconciliation, the tax and spending bill had to align the House and Senate Republicans on a single framework so they could avoid the typical 60-vote threshold needed in the upper chamber. Though no Democratic support was needed to push the bill through to completion, the process was still marred with controversies and hiccups as moderate and right-wing GOP lawmakers argued over the overall price tag and a handful of controversial provisions. Fraught negotiations between conservatives Moderates argued that spending cuts could endanger their reelection while conservative members railed against what they saw as runaway spending inside the OBBB. The Senate narrowly passed its version of the bill 51 - 50 on Tuesday. The vote was so close that Vice President JD Vance had to come in and break the tie, casting the final vote to get the bill out of the Senate and back to the House. The House's version of the bill passed in late May, also with just a one-vote margin. If more than four Republicans voted against the bill, it would have failed. Fraught negotiations between the House and Senate also endangered the final result since the House's original version of the bill was widely seen as more conservative than the Senate's copy, which was eventually swallowed by the House members. But just barely, a procedural vote setting up the final passage broke a record for the longest vote in House history, clocking in over 7 hours and 20 minutes. Putting up a fight until the end, conservative members of the House Freedom Caucus (HFC) held out on supporting the bill until they made their concerns known to GOP leadership and the White House. HFC member Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, said as late as Wednesday evening that he was a 'no' on the bill because it increases the deficit and does not fully repeal Biden-era renewable energy subsidies. 'We need to understand exactly, exactly how this stuff will get implemented because I need these subsidies to end because they are damaging Texas's grid,' Roy said before the final vote. HFC Chairman Andy Harris, R-Md., also said on Wednesday afternoon he was still a 'no' on the bill and that he wanted the Senate to come back into town so that changes could be made to the bill before the Friday deadline. Moderate Republicans also put up a fight against the tax and spending bill. A group of centrist GOP members went to the White House on Wednesday morning to discuss the bill with the president. At the top of their minds were the deep Medicaid cuts, while others were concerned with state and local tax (SALT) provisions - a popular policy among Republicans in high-tax blue states. Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., firmly said he will vote against the bill all along over his concern for the ballooning national debt and deficit. Taking matters into his own hands, Trump was reportedly calling GOP dissidents to get them to buy into the OBBB throughout the process. 'He's been working the phones pretty consistently over the last several days, and members have been calling him as well,' an administration official told Politico. 'He's going to get it over the finish line.' Ultimately, Trump and the GOP leadership's efforts paid off, and with time to spare before the 4th of July deadline. Democrats' delay tactics While Republicans worked to gather the votes necessary for final passage of the massive Trump-backed bill Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, Democrats, led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, deployed delay tactics. The New York Democrat took to the floor just before 5:00 am ET to begin an arduous, record-breaking 8-hour and roughly 45-minute speech about the dangers presented by the GOP legislation. 'I feel the obligation Mr. Speaker to stand on this House floor and take my sweet time,' the Democrat leader proclaimed well into his remarks. His speech began with stories of Americans who could be impacted by the Trump bill's cuts to Medicaid and social programs. The New Yorker was still droning on while several of his fellow Democrats could be seen behind him with eyes closed and heads folded down. Despite his enthusiasm for hampering the GOP's plans, his colleagues seemed less excited. In fact, many appeared to be asleep. But that did not deter him from breaking former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's record for the longest floor speech around 1:30 pm ET. Shortly after the Democrat leader finished, Speaker Mike Johnson took to the floor to read off the highlights of what is contained in the mega-bill. What's in the 'Big, Beautiful Bill' The president noted on Tuesday how there's 'something for everyone' in the multi-trillion-dollar bill. One of the primary functions of the bill is to extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts that would have expired at the end of this year. In total, the tax cut extension is estimated to cost $4 trillion from the loss of tax revenue collected by the federal government. It also exempts pay from overtime and tips from being hit by federal income taxes - a fulfillment of one of the president's most ambitious campaign promises. It also allows individuals to deduct up to $10,000 of auto loan interest for vehicles made in the U.S. In addition, the bill allows individuals in high-tax states to deduct up to $40,000 per year for half a decade in state and local taxes (SALT) from their federal taxes - a top priority for conservatives in blue states. The big bill also increases the annual child tax credit to $2,200 and creates 'Trump investment accounts,' which will see the U.S. investing $1,000 into accounts for babies born after 2024. Border security efforts will also be getting a major cash infusion estimated to be around $150 billion for increased immigration enforcement. It includes $46 billion for Customs and Border Patrol to build border wall and enhanced security measures and around $30 billion for Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Another roughly $150 billion in the bill will be provided to the military to create Trump's 'Golden Dome' missile defense system, increase U.S. ship-building capacity and to fund nuclear deterrence programs. To pay for all of this, Republicans had to cut major spending initiatives like Medicaid, SNAP and green energy initiatives. The Senate's bill has work requirements for both Medicaid and SNAP recipients, along with other cuts, which are expected to save over $1 trillion in spending in the coming years. Green energy subsidies passed under former President Joe Biden in his signature Inflation Reduction Act are also rolled back under the new bill - a move that is expected to save close to half a trillion dollars in obligated spending.
The Independent
29 minutes ago
- The Independent
House Republicans give Trump a ‘Big Beautiful' July 4 by passing Medicaid-slashing megabill despite GOP rift
The House of Representatives on Thursday passed President Donald Trump 's 'Big, Beautiful Bill,' which features sweeping cuts to Medicaid and nutrition assistance programs, after a whirlwind 24 hours of last-minute arm twisting of holdout Republicans — and a record-breaking floor speech from Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries. The final vote was a narrow margin of 218-214, with every Democrat and two Republicans —Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie and Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — voting against the measure. After Jeffries wrapped his eight-hour and 44 - minute delaying tactic — which surpassed former GOP Speaker Kevin McCarthy's 'magic minute' speech record of eight hours and 32 minutes, set in 2021 when the House passed President Joe Biden's 'Build Back Better Act' — the House finally commenced its vote on Trump's bill. The "magic minute" procedure grants members unlimited time to speak after debate on a bill has concluded. It all came to a head after a day of grumbling from a handful of conservative Republicans who criticized the Senate version of the bill that was handed back to the House for passage in time for a Trump-imposed July 4 deadline so he could use the holiday to sign his cornerstone legislation. But after meeting with the president and receiving promises from the White House — and an all-caps threat from Trump overnight — members of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, voted to push the bill through. Throughout the process, the group of rabble-rousers has often held out their votes, only to fold after speaking with Trump. Still, Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina, a member of the Freedom Caucus, insisted this was not a concession. 'The reason we have credibility, they know we'll vote 'no,'' Norman told The Independent. Norman said that he was disappointed that wind and solar tax credits or the $7,5000 tax credit for electric vehicles from the Inflation Reduction Act, the signature climate law signed by Joe Biden, were not completely phased out in the legislation. 'With that being said, we had enough assurance that the president was going to deal with them in his own way,' Norman said. 'I feel perfectly comfortable with that, which I wasn't before.' House members scrambled to make it to Washington after severe thunderstorms and inclement weather delayed travel for many from both parties. Some members drove to D.C. while Democrats held digital town halls to criticize the legislation. The vote came after the Senate spent a marathon 27 hours in the two days beforehand voting on amendments before the measure was tied at 50-50. Vice President JD Vance came in to cast the deciding tie-breaker. House Speaker Mike Johnson limited the number of amendments to get the bill to the president's desk. The bill's passage did not come easy, though. In the afternoon, the House held a vote to amend the rules for passage of the bill, which turned out to be the longest in the chamber's history. But Republicans soldiered on. Speaker Johnson called into Fox News in between whipping votes to reassure people the bill could pass by the July 4 deadline imposed by Trump. The rule vote finally passed at around 3.30am on Wednesday morning 219-213, with Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick the only member of the GOP to break ranks as the rest of the party's holdouts were persuaded to fall in line to set up a final floor vote. 'The bill is going to pass, they're going to vote for it, they're not opposed to the bill,' House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith told The Independent. 'Don't allow perfection to get in the way of greatness,' he said. 'And that is why they will vote for this bill, and that is why the president will be signed into law on July 4 and record that. See if I'm right.' The bill is one of the most sweeping pieces of Republican domestic policy legislation in history. Not only does it extend the 2017 tax cuts that Trump signed in his first presidency; it also includes money to hire 10,000 new agents for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and 3,000 Border Patrol agents, a core tenet of Trump's promise to conduct 'mass deportations' of undocumented immigrants. It also includes money to construct the barrier along the U.S.-Mexico border. The legislation further allows for more oil exploration and a massive increase in military spending. To pay for the increase, Republicans made massive cuts to Medicaid – the healthcare program that covers poor people, pregnant women, children and people with disabilities – and the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program, also known as SNAP or food stamps. The bill would require able-bodied adults without dependent children to work for Medicaid benefits and, in the coming years, would cap the level at which states can tax medical providers such as hospitals and nursing homes. The American Hospital Association warned it could lead to the closing of rural hospitals, which serve many Republican congressional districts. The act also imposes work requirements for SNAP recipients for able-bodied adults without dependent children. But it lowers the age at which children are considered dependent to 14 years old and would require states with high rates of overpayment or underpayment to shoulder part of the cost of administering SNAP. The legislation remains wildly unpopular, with polling showing a large amount of Americans disapprove of it. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez Jr., a Democrat who represents a district that also voted for Trump in 2024, said his district would be hit hard by the legislation. 'But I still feel, unfortunately, that people don't react until they feel the pain, and they're going to feel it pretty quick for this with this bill,' he told The Independent. Democrats will likely campaign against the bill in the coming months ahead of the midterm election, hoping to criticize the GOP for taking away healthcare benefits as a way to extend tax cuts. Republicans for their part already do not want to talk about the unpopular parts of the bill. When The Independent asked Rep. Nick Begich of Alaska about the side deal brokered by his Sen. Lisa Murkowski to shield the state from many of the provisions for SNAP and Medicaid during the rule vote, he did not speak and bolted onto the House floor.
