In 2027 handshake with Samajwadi Party, Congress eyes bigger slice of seat-sharing pie
Looking to drive a hard bargain, the Congress is aiming to secure more seats than in the previous arrangements, where it accepted fewer seats from the Samajwadi Party (SP), the dominant regional player. The SP-Congress alliance had
relegated the BJP to the number two position in the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP's tally of seats was reduced from 62 out of 80 in 2019 to 33 in 2024. The SP won 37 seats and the Congress bagged six out of the 17 seats it contested.
Amid the evolving dynamics between the SP and the Congress, multiple formulas are being weighed by the Congress.
These include the one-district-one-seat (ODOS) formula, one seat in each parliamentary constituency or all assembly segments of the Lok Sabha seat (won by Congress in 2024).
As it is highly improbable that the SP will leave 100 or more seats for the Congress, the grand old party may have to be content with contesting 70 seats.
While strategising, there are likely to be differences between the two allies on sharing the urban assembly seats that the SP has never won. Of the 403 assembly seats, over 80 have only urban voters in Uttar Pradesh.
Sample this. The Noida seat has been with the BJP since it came into existence in 2012. Pankaj Singh was elected MLA from this seat for the second time in 2022. He polled 244,319 votes. The combined votes of the SP and Congress candidates was 76,300. The difference in votes between the BJP candidate and the SP and Congress nominees was 168,019.
Similarly, the BJP won the Mathura seat by 60% votes. The SP has never won this seat. The Congress candidate secured 18.61% votes.
Ghaziabad is yet another urban seat that the SP would be willing to offer to the Congress. The SP won the seat in 2004. But in 2022, the BJP polled 61.37% votes to win the seat. The SP secured 18.25% votes and the Congress 4.83% votes.
The SP has never won the Lucknow East seat that has been with the BJP for two decades. The Congress won this seat five times between 1951 and 1989. There are 4.47 lakh voters in the constituency, including 1.75 lakh Kshatriya, Brahmin and Kayastha voters.
Among other urban seats, the SP is likely to offer Lucknow Cantt to Congress but would want to contest the Malihabad (won thrice by SP), Mohanlalganj (won twice by SP), and BKT (won in 2012) for itself, which the Congress is set to oppose.
The BKT seat is a good example of why both the SP and Congress would want it. The BJP polled 46.36% votes in 2022 while SP secured 37.65% and Congress 2.84%. The victory margin was 27,788. The alliance votes can overcome this deficit.
In Kanpur, the Congress lost the Kidwainagar seat by 37,000 votes to the BJP. The SP polled a little over 8,000 votes. Hence, neither the SP nor the Congress would like to go for it. The BJP had won Kanpur's Govindnagar assembly seat in 2022, polling 117,501 votes. The SP and Congress combined tally of votes was just over 62,000. The SP has never won the Govindnagar assembly seat.
The other seats that remained unwinnable for the SP, which it would like to offer to the Congress include Rampur Khas (Congress stronghold), Kunda, Babaganj (since 2012), Manjhanpur (since 2012), Gorakhpur Urban, Varanasi Cantt, Jhansi Nagar, Meerut Cantt, Agra South (since 2012), Hathras, Bareilly, Debai (Bulandshahr) and Anupshahr.
Party leaders are confident of a formula. Samajwadi Party spokesperson Udaivir Singh said, 'Both Rahul Gandhi and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav have asserted the alliance will continue. The Congress might demand more seats than we (SP) may plan to offer (to the Congress). The number can still be decided somewhere between the demand (by Congress) and offer (by SP).'
'More than seat-sharing, it will be about how each seat can be won. Who will be the candidate, what is the organisational strength on the ground (seat) are the aspects which will primarily decide the seat-sharing,' Samajwadi Party spokesperson Ameeque Jamei said.
The Bihar elections will also have an impact on the Congress's demand for seats in the 2027 UP elections. The Congress is preparing for robust negotiations following the better-than-expected performance of the INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh during the 2024 general elections.
Party leaders have been floating various formulas.
According to one formula, the party is keen to contest at least one assembly seat in every district, or in each Lok Sabha constituency, ensuring greater organisational presence and impact across the state.
Under another formula, the Congress wants to contest all (assembly) segments under the 17 parliamentary seats they contested in 2024. Going by this formula, the party would want to contest 85 assembly seats – an average of five seats each in 17 parliamentary constituencies.
This is in addition to 10 stronghold seats that it wants to contest.
The strategy will mark a departure from previous arrangements where the Congress often had to accept fewer seats against dominant regional players. Now, the party is pushing its growing aspirations to maximize its electoral footprint in the politically crucial state. The move reflects a strategic recalibration, asserting Congress's demand for a more proportional and impactful role within the alliance.
Congress's incharge for Uttar Pradesh Avinash Pande said, 'Focusing on strengthening the organisaton in all 403 assembly constituencies, the Congress in Uttar Pradesh is not the party it was. Seat-sharing for 2027 will be decided on our organisational strength and we are not hurrying for it.'
The SP and the Congress had contested UP assembly polls in 2017 and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls together.
Under the seat-sharing arrangement, the Congress was given 105 of 403 UP assembly seats in 2017 and 17 of 80 UP Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
'Had Congress gone alone in Lok Sabha, no doubt, we would have been winning seats in double figures. Statistically, in at least 10 seats (that) the SP won and the Congress played a major role. This shows the Congress's growing mass base,' Pande said.
The SP, which was founded in 1992, won 109 seats in the 1993 UP assembly polls, 110 in 1996, 143 in 2002 and 97 in 2007. It formed a majority government after winning 224 seats in 2012. But in 2017, the SP's tally dropped to 47 seats. The party bounced back in 2022, winning 111 seats .
The Congress won 28 seats in 1993, and 33 in 1996. In 2002, the Congress bagged 25 seats. It won 22 seats in 2007 and 28 in 2012. The Congress won seven of the 105 seats it contested in 2017 in alliance with the SP.
The Congress's tally dropped to an all-time low of two seats in 2022 when it won only the Rampur Khas and Pharenda seats in UP as it contested 399 seats on its own.
The Congress polled 2.3% vote share in 2022. Barring the two seats, its candidates lost their deposit in all the other seats.
Samajwadi Party leaders are also going through the 2022 poll data .
'We won 111 seats, but lost 40-45 seats with less than 5,000 (votes) margin and 30 others with less than 7,000 margin. Can these seats be won in 2027? If so, why should not a SP candidate contest there,' a senior party leader said.
Political experts feel the SP-Congress alliance is a must for both.
'For both, the alliance is a win-win situation. I suppose the SP will keep no less than 300 seats for itself and offer less than 100 to the Congress, that too where it (SP) might be weak (purely urban seats) or those it never won,' said Pradip Sharma, associate professor at Shia PG College, Lucknow.
'In the alliance, the Congress has the opportunity to be part of the government and strengthen the party base in Uttar Pradesh. This can happen even if it wins 30 of the total seats it contests with the SP. For the SP, the game is about regaining power by doubling its 2022 tally,' Sharma explained.
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