Fantasy football breakout wide receivers, including Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze and more

New York Times

02-07-2025

The wide receiver position is next in my 2025 fantasy football breakout players series. There's no better feeling than finding a wideout who went from fantasy benches or the waiver wire to a Top 25 starter option. OK, maybe finding running backs with this profile gets the juices flowing a tad more, but it's still an amazing feeling. There are plenty of receivers with breakout potential this season, including my seven favorite targets, who I'm listing here.
Drake London, ATL; Jerry Jeudy, CLE; Xavier Worthy, KC; Ladd McConkey, LAC; Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA — London possibly had the quietest Top 5 finish ever … Jeudy will find it hard to finish Top 15 again … Worthy was WR33 and will have a tough road to jump into the Top 20 with Rashee Rice back in the mix … McConkey debuted with a Top 12 finish … and JSN finished one spot ahead of McConkey, so while a popular breakout pick for a second-straight year, Smith-Njigba would have to hit the Top 5 for a major jump.
Tetairoa McMillan, CAR; Jayden Higgins, HOU; Travis Hunter, JAX; Tre Harris, LAC — All these rookies landed in nice-to-great spots, but as I've mentioned in previous breakout pieces, rookies 'debut' for me, they don't 'break out.' Though the rookie running back class kind of ruined my plans.
Case For: Honestly, Williams broke out last year with his WR19 finish, finally staying healthy and being involved enough to show all the upside we knew he had from watching him in college. Williams finished with a line of 58-1,001-7 in just 15 games and had the sixth-highest fantasy points per target (FPPT) at 2.01 — minimum 50 targets. John Morton was with the Lions in 2022, so his return and replacement of Ben Johnson as the offensive coordinator shouldn't change much of the offense. Jared Goff averaged 4,547 passing yards and 32 TD passes over the past three seasons. Isaac TeSlaa is an intriguing rookie for 2026 if Williams doesn't return, but he isn't a threat to Williams' No. 2 role this season, nor is any other wideout.
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Case Against: Last season, Sam LaPorta suffered a major drop-off from 2023, partly thanks to Williams' breakout, but the tight end could bounce back. Williams was still great when LaPorta returned to form late in the season, but the tight end's improved play and opportunities coincided with David Montgomery's injury, and Goff subsequently threw at least 32 times a game each week of the season's final month. Despite 87.9% of Goff's passes to Williams being on target, Williams caught just 63.7% of his 91 targets. As much as we hope Morton replacing Johnson won't change much, there is a risk that the offense regresses or other issues arise. As great as Williams is and can be, it's tough to make a significant jump from WR19, especially as a team's No. 2 receiving option.
Breakout Likelihood: 3.5/10 to be a WR1
Case For: His pedigree — college performance and bloodline — is elite. Harrison is dangerous inside and out wide with elite hands and DJ Moore-like upside. There is no question about his role as his team's No. 1 wideout, and he will once again combine with Trey McBride to see over 50% of Kyler Murray's targets. This might surprise people, but Harrison saw the second-most end zone targets in the league with 18 (tied with Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson and Drake London), which is impressive for a rookie. Only Ja'Marr Chase, with 21, finished ahead of him.
Case Against: The only, and slight, concerns with Harrison — separation and some route precision — manifested throughout his rookie season and caused some hiccups. We saw the need for improved chemistry with Murray, especially in this wide-open, arm-waving example against the Bills, as Murray never worked back to Harrison. Even as the clear No. 1 wideout, Harrison was still over eight percentage points behind McBride in team target rate. It's unlikely that Murray ever throws for 4,000+ yards and 30+ touchdowns to maximize the ceiling of any of his receivers.
Breakout Likelihood: 7.0/10 to be a WR2, 4.0/10 to be a WR1
Case For: Odunze was widely seen as a Top 3 receiving talent in last year's draft thanks to his high-level skills in numerous areas: separation, hands, release, speed, etc. I compared him to a bigger Garrett Wilson. If new head coach Ben Johnson is igniting the Bears' offense and turning Caleb Williams into the star we hoped to see last year, the entire receiving corps will benefit, especially a talent like Odunze. He led the Bears in air yards per game despite being third in routes and target share, plus he was behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen in passes from Williams that were on target (just 73.3%); Allen is now a free agent.
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Case Against: Some of the misconnections between Williams and Odunze were Odunze's fault. Rookie Luther Burden is a great receiver with some terrific skills out of the slot. That said, Moore, Odunze and Burden can all work the slot and outside, which gives Johnson formation flexibility, but it could also lead to mixed usage where none of the three sees 90% of the snaps or 25.0 TmTGT%, and that's before factoring in tight ends Cole Kmet and rookie Colston Loveland. Williams is also not guaranteed to improve in his first season with Johnson. Heck, there is no guarantee that Odunze doesn't struggle again, remaining the third-best wideout for the Bears.
Breakout Likelihood: 6.5/10 to be a WR2, 3.5/10 to be a WR1
Case For: Did you pick him up on waivers last year? Did you enjoy having a plugged-in WR3 the rest of the way (not including Week 3, when almost nobody had Jennings in a lineup to benefit)? Jennings stepped up as the top 49ers wideout in 2024, pushing Brandon Aiyuk for the spot before Aiyuk's season-ending injury. From Week 4 on, Jennings led the 49ers with a 21.8 TmTGT% and had a nice 1.97 YPRR (37th for WRs). Aiyuk is questionable to start the season, and it's unclear when he'll be back to 100%. Jennings fits Aiyuk's role, while Ricky Pearsall is more of the Deebo Samuel replacement. If Jennings sees 125+ targets, 1,000+ receiving yards and a Top 20 finish are in play.
Case Against: Pearsall and George Kittle will get targets. Pearsall will easily slide in as the No. 2 receiver and, honestly, he has enough ability and upside to push Jennings for the No. 1 role. Aiyuk could return to 100% a few weeks into the season, which means Jennings could fall to No. 3, or play alongside Aiyuk, thereby pushing Pearsall down. And again, Kittle will get his share, plus a healthy Christian McCaffrey will command at least 70 targets. That's all without addressing the need for Brock Purdy to rebound and look more like his 2023 self, which would include much better touchdown efficiency.
Breakout Likelihood: 5.5/10 to be a WR2, 1.5 to be a WR1
Case For: His style fits Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones, so Downs' potential isn't highly dependent on who wins the quarterback battle. Downs had more FPPT than Michael Pittman (1.38 to 1.18) and a much higher EPA/TGT (0.24 compared to -0.02 for Pittman). And while both were quite good against zone coverage — 2.04 yards per route run (YPRR) for Downs and 2.00 for Pittman, Downs blew away Pittman against man (2.56 to 1.23), further showing his ability to work in all areas. Even more, FantasyPoints Separation Score has Downs 24th overall (0.104 — minimum 200 routes, which is still a low-ish bar), alongside Brian Thomas Jr. and Puka Nacua. Pittman's at 0.063, alongside Darius Slayton and Darnell Mooney. Lastly, Downs' 15.1% Win Rate (routes with a positive separation score) is sandwiched between Garrett Wilson and George Pickens and firmly ahead of Pittman's 11.8% mark (alongside Mack Hollins and Gabe Davis). I don't normally get this metric-y, but I wanted to show that the metrics see the same thing I do regarding Downs' ability to get open.
Case Against: While Downs can work with either Jones or Richardson, the quality of the Colts' quarterbacks can still hold back every receiver in Indianapolis. Downs relies more on YAC than the much higher air yards that Pittman sees. If a third option gets consistently involved, Downs and Pittman could see their 21-23 TmTGT% drop, which again, would hurt doubly given the inferior quarterback play.
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Breakout Likelihood: 7.0/10 to be a WR3, 4.5/10 to be a WR2
Case For: Coleman's rookie season wasn't expected to yield immediate production. There are Kenny Golladay (good and bad) comparisons, and we saw some of the bad, but the contested catch ability, hands, speed and smoothness for his size are all positives. Additionally, Coleman carries touchdown upside, tying for second on the team (4), despite only 29 receptions, and Mack Hollins (the leader with 5) is gone. If Josh Allen throws for 30+ touchdowns, Coleman could push double-digit scores.
Case Against: One of my targets from last year, Khalil Shakir, certainly has a case as the No. 1 option in Buffalo. Shakir fits the Stefon Diggs style and role more than Coleman does. There is also a chance Coleman doesn't overcome his rookie-season issues, which included some route-running issues and catching inconsistency. Signed in free agency, Joshua Palmer has flashed at times and could secure a top-two role if Coleman doesn't improve. Lastly, several Bills' receiving options have received 80 to 90 targets, even as the team's clear No. 2.
Breakout Likelihood: 6.5/10 to be a WR3, 4.0/10 to be a WR2
Case For: Wilson's ability drew Mike Tomlin's attention at Senior Bowl practices, where Tomlin told Wilson to line up against hyped corner Quinyon Mitchell to truly test him. Then Tomlin drafted Wilson in the third round. Wilson has some Emmanuel Sanders to his game, and with DK Metcalf the new No. 1, George Pickens off to Dallas and no elite options otherwise, Wilson is positioned well to seize the No. 2 role. As much hate as Aaron Rodgers gets, he did send 154 targets Garrett Wilson's way, while still targeting Davante Adams 114 times in 11 games.
Case Against: Wilson's rookie season was a lost cause to injuries (ankle injury in training camp, then a hamstring injury five snaps into his debut, never to see the field again). There were a few reports that Wilson wasn't overly impressive returning from injury before his Week 6 debut. Calvin Austin is a decent receiver, veteran Robert Woods signed with Pittsburgh, and the Steelers traded for Jonnu Smith (oh, Arthur Smith's dreaded love of the two-tight end offense).
Breakout Likelihood: 4.5/10 to be a WR3, 2.0/10 to be a WR2
(Photo of Rome Odunze: David Banks / Imagn Images)