Will Sensex and Nifty hit record highs in July? Here's all you need to know
'Markets have grown increasingly resilient to external noise, from geopolitical tensions to US presidential tweets. There is little doubt that the bullish momentum is here to stay,' Abhilash Pagaria, Head of Alternative and Quantitative Research at Nuvama, told Reuters.The July derivatives series, which runs from June 27 to July 31, has begun with lighter FII short positions compared to the previous month, signalling a slight shift in sentiment. Retail and high net-worth investors are taking a more selective approach, scaling back on index-wide bets while leaning into specific stocks.advertisementAccording to Sriram Velayudhan, Senior Vice President at IIFL Capital Services, the sustained strength in blue-chip names such as Reliance and major banks could create a path for the Nifty to reclaim all-time high levels.While the broader sentiment remains positive, some caution remains around key upcoming events. These include the July 9 deadline for US reciprocal tariffs, the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision, and the upcoming corporate earnings season—all of which could introduce short-term volatility.TRADERS CONFIDENTStill, early signals suggest traders remain confident. Open interest at the start of the July series stood at 80% on the Nifty and 89% market-wide, indicating heightened participation and conviction in continued upside.The news agency also reported that long positions are building up in sectors like telecom, cement, IT, banking, metals, and chemicals. Meanwhile, autos are seeing some short-covering, and FMCG remains the only segment showing a marginal rise in short bets.The combination of macro stability, strong domestic liquidity, and stock-specific conviction appears to be setting the stage for a bullish July. Whether the Nifty breaks its previous record remains to be seen, but the wind, for now, is definitely at the market's back.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)- EndsMust Watch
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India Today
42 minutes ago
- India Today
Trump orders firing of labour stats chief after weak July jobs report release
Trump fires Bureau of Labour Statistics Comissioner Erika McEntarfer (Photo:Reuters) Accuses her of faking July jobs data, demands immediate replacement Claims lack evidence, BLS denies data manipulation allegations Concerns rise over data quality amid mass federal layoffs US President Donald Trump on Friday (local time) ordered that the commissioner of the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics Erika McEntarfer be fired after data showed weaker-than-expected employment growth in July and massive downward revisions to the prior two months' job counts. McEntarfer was nominated by former President Joe Biden to serve in the role in 2023 and was confirmed by the US Senate the following year. It was not immediately clear whether McEntarfer, whom Trump accused of faking the jobs numbers, had been fired. Trump took to his Truth Social account to inform about McEntarfer's firing. Trump announced the firing of McEntarfer over his Truth Social account Trump lambasted McEntarfer and accused her of producing fake job numbers. "We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified," Trump said. There is no proof that supports Trump's accusations about the BLS tampering with data. The BLS is the statistical agency responsible for creating the employment report, which is closely followed, as well as data on consumer and producer prices. The White House did not respond immediately to questions about Trump's post. ACCUSATIONS As per Reuters, Trump acccused McEntarfer of putting out the job numbers before the elections to help Democrats. The order to dismiss McEntarfer comes at a time when the Trump administration's mass layoffs of federal government workers have raised concerns about the quality of US economic data, long seen as the gold standard. Trump later posted: 'In my opinion, today's Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.' After his initial post, Labour Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said on X that McEntarfer was no longer leading the bureau and that William Wiatrowski, the deputy commissioner, would serve as the acting director. 'I support the President's decision to replace Biden's Commissioner and ensure the American People can trust the important and influential data coming from BLS,' Chavez-DeRemer said. Earlier this year, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick disbanded two expert committees that worked with the government to produce economic statistics. Lutnick has also floated the idea of stripping out government spending from the gross domestic product report, claiming "governments historically have messed with GDP." ECONOMISTS' OVERVIEW The BLS has already reduced data collection for the consumer price data as well as the producer price report. Economists attributed the sharply slower job growth to Trump's trade and immigration policies. The economy created only 73,000 jobs in July. Data for May and June were revised sharply down to show 258,000 fewer jobs created than had been previously reported. As per a report by CNBC, Laura Ulrich, director of economic research for North America at job site Indeed said that the July figure suggests the job market isn't keeping pace with population growth, and is therefore contracting. With inputs from agencies. US President Donald Trump on Friday (local time) ordered that the commissioner of the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics Erika McEntarfer be fired after data showed weaker-than-expected employment growth in July and massive downward revisions to the prior two months' job counts. McEntarfer was nominated by former President Joe Biden to serve in the role in 2023 and was confirmed by the US Senate the following year. It was not immediately clear whether McEntarfer, whom Trump accused of faking the jobs numbers, had been fired. Trump took to his Truth Social account to inform about McEntarfer's firing. Trump announced the firing of McEntarfer over his Truth Social account Trump lambasted McEntarfer and accused her of producing fake job numbers. "We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified," Trump said. There is no proof that supports Trump's accusations about the BLS tampering with data. The BLS is the statistical agency responsible for creating the employment report, which is closely followed, as well as data on consumer and producer prices. The White House did not respond immediately to questions about Trump's post. ACCUSATIONS As per Reuters, Trump acccused McEntarfer of putting out the job numbers before the elections to help Democrats. The order to dismiss McEntarfer comes at a time when the Trump administration's mass layoffs of federal government workers have raised concerns about the quality of US economic data, long seen as the gold standard. Trump later posted: 'In my opinion, today's Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.' After his initial post, Labour Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said on X that McEntarfer was no longer leading the bureau and that William Wiatrowski, the deputy commissioner, would serve as the acting director. 'I support the President's decision to replace Biden's Commissioner and ensure the American People can trust the important and influential data coming from BLS,' Chavez-DeRemer said. Earlier this year, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick disbanded two expert committees that worked with the government to produce economic statistics. Lutnick has also floated the idea of stripping out government spending from the gross domestic product report, claiming "governments historically have messed with GDP." ECONOMISTS' OVERVIEW The BLS has already reduced data collection for the consumer price data as well as the producer price report. Economists attributed the sharply slower job growth to Trump's trade and immigration policies. The economy created only 73,000 jobs in July. Data for May and June were revised sharply down to show 258,000 fewer jobs created than had been previously reported. As per a report by CNBC, Laura Ulrich, director of economic research for North America at job site Indeed said that the July figure suggests the job market isn't keeping pace with population growth, and is therefore contracting. With inputs from agencies. Join our WhatsApp Channel
Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Now thats a reality check
ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at . You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @ Well, well, well. In a week jam-packed with global tariff, earnings, data and policy fireworks, the most explosive was kept for last: July's U.S. employment report, which shattered the optimism - or complacency - building around the U.S. economy and stock market. Weak job growth, together with the latest wave of steep tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, triggered a huge selloff in global stocks and the dollar on Friday, floored bond yields, and revived expectations of a Fed rate cut next month. * Dollar index snaps six-day winning streak and slumps more than 1%, its biggest fall since April. Dollar/yen plunges 2.2%, biggest fall since January 2023. * S&P 500 slides 1.6%, biggest decline since May, as profit-taking sets in after new highs this week. Nasdaq slumps 2.2% - is tech topping out? * U.S. 2-year bond yield tumbles 26 bps, the biggest fall in a year and akin to an instant quarter-point rate cut. * Crude oil futures fall nearly 3%. * Comex copper steadies on Friday but plunges 24% this week, its worst ever week since futures contracts launched in 1988. Now that's a reality check Global markets were floored on Friday by a powerful one-two punch from the latest U.S. employment data and U.S. tariffs slapped on dozens of countries. It was a sobering reminder that the economic foundations supporting Wall Street's record highs this week may not be that strong. The weak jobs growth seemed to fly in the face of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's assessment on Wednesday that the labor market is strong, and vindicate the two dissenters, Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Although to be fair to Powell, he did stress that downside risks were growing. Yet average earnings and hours worked rose in July, and the unemployment rate only inched up to 4.2%. That's effectively still full employment. If the bar to cutting rates is tied to the unemployment rate, it is still a high one. Rates futures traders don't see it that way though. They now see a rate cut next month as a near-certainty, and are pricing in 60 basis points of easing by year-end. Investors were also sideswiped on Friday by U.S. President Donald Trump's latest wave of tariffs on 69 trading partners, ranging from 10% to 41%, that will start in a week's time. This will raise the U.S. effective tariff rate closer to 20%, nearly 10 times higher than the end of last year. Of course, bilateral trade deals could be struck and these levies may be lowered, but it is a reminder that the growth and inflation outlook is challenging at best. With equity prices and optimism around Big Tech at such lofty levels, the correction when it came was always likely to be big. If that wasn't enough for investors to digest, Trump announced late on Friday he is firing the commissioner of the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics following the latest jobs data, and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said she is resigning effective August 8 and returning to academia. This paves the way for Trump to appoint someone more aligned with his low interest rate view as her replacement. So the new trading month kicks off with world markets on a shaky footing, and the economy too. Asia's factory activity is deteriorating as tariff uncertainty weighs, and U.S. manufacturing is still in a funk. European factory activity is moving closer to stabilization, but is still contracting. Services, tech and AI-related activity and indicators are shining brighter of course, but even there caution will be creeping into investors' minds. Earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft and Meta were well-received by the market, to put it mildly, but the Nasdaq still shed nearly 2% on the week. August is the main summer holiday month in Europe and North America, so liquidity will thin out. With the VIX index back above 20.0 for the first time since April, trading next week could be choppy. If you want evidence that Trump's tariffs on the rest of the world are starting to push up U.S. goods inflation, look no further. According to Ernie Tedeschi at the Budget Lab at Yale, PCE durable goods prices in the first six months of the year rose 1.7%. Excluding the pandemic, that's the biggest six-month rise since 1987. Here are some of the best things I read this week: 1. Brics currencies are no realistic alternative to the dollar - Herbert Poenisch 2. Europe's Economic Surrender - Alberto Alemanno 3. U.S.-EU Trade Deal Avoids a Tariff War, but Deepens European Dependence - Matthias Matthijs 4. China is also Fighting a Trade War with Europe (and Winning) - Brad Setser 5. Trump's executive orders politicize AI - Tom Wheeler What could move markets on Monday? * U.S. durable goods (June) Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. (Writing by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
Mint
2 hours ago
- Mint
Stocks slump on latest tariffs, soft jobs data
Amazon slides after cloud computing growth underwhelms investors U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July (Updates to market close) NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slumped on Friday, with the S&P on track for its biggest daily percentage decline in more than three months as new U.S. tariffs on dozens of trading partners and a surprisingly weak jobs report spurred selling pressure. Also weighing on equities was a tumble in shares after the company posted quarterly results but failed to meet lofty expectations for its Amazon Web Services cloud computing unit. Just hours before the tariff deadline on Friday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing duties on U.S. imports from countries, including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan, in his latest round of levies as countries attempted to seek ways to reach better deals. Further denting confidence in the economic picture, data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July while the prior month's report was revised sharply lower, indicating the labor market may be starting to crack. The report significantly pushed up expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its September meeting. "There's no way to pretty-up this report. Previous months were revised significantly lower where the labor market has been on stall-speed," said Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. "Last year the Fed messed up by not cutting in July so they did a catch-up cut at their next meeting. They'll likely have to do the same thing this year." According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 101.60 points, or 1.60%, to end at 6,237.79 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 472.78 points, or 2.24%, to 20,649.67. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 543.97 points, or 1.23%, to 43,587.01. Market expectations the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its September meeting stood at 80.9%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 37.7% in the prior session. Other data from the Institute for Supply Management showed U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month in July and factory employment dropped to the lowest level in five years. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recorded their biggest single-day percentage declines since April 21 and all three major indexes were on track for weekly losses. The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, climbed to as much as 21.90, its highest since June 23. Amazon was the biggest drag on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq and pushed the consumer discretionary index, down nearly 4% as the worst performing of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors. Also reporting earnings was Apple, which fell after it posted a current-quarter revenue forecast well above Wall Street estimates, but CEO Tim Cook warned U.S. tariffs would add $1.1 billion in costs over the period. Stocks briefly extended declines after Trump said he ordered the commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika L. McEntarfer, to be fired in the wake of the jobs data. In contrast to the broad declines, Reddit surged after it reported quarterly results that exceeded Street expectations, boosted by an AI-focused advertising strategy and strong user engagement. (Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, additional reporting by Nikhil Sharma and Sukriti Gupta in Bengaluru)
