Shares and the rand stay strong in a week of drama
Image: Pixabay
The ALSI once again on a record high
Despite all the attention on the RSA (Ramaphosa) and Trump(US) standoff to gain political points at the news conference last Wednesday, as well as the 'don't want to cut the national government salary account' third national budget, financial markets in South Africa seem to react on the real issue of the US/SA negotiations, South Africa's promising inflation data and foreign investment interest, that pushed the Rand/$ exchange rate to a new record level for 2025 and the ALSI to a new all-time record.
The ALSI closed Friday higher for the fourth consecutive week at an all-time high of 93 529. This is a weekly rise of 1.0% and now has gained 10.8% since the beginning of the year and 18.0% over the last year. Once again, this movement is in sharp contrast to equity prices in the US and Europe.
The above bullish movement in equities underpins more favourable economic prospects for South Africa during 2025. Gold and Platinum continuous upward movements, the inflation rate increasing only marginally from 2.7% in March 2025 to 2.8% in April (seven consecutive month lower than the midpoint of 4.5%) and the decision by treasury to increase the fuel levy by 16 and 15 cents per liter, without putting a burden on the motorist over the short run all contributed to the positive sentiment on markets.
As the over-recovering in the price of petrol currently stands at 19 cents per liter and forty-one cents for diesel, with prospects for lower global oil prices and a stronger Rand over the next six months. Issues that matter after the trade negotiations between the US and SA
It seems that genuine issues that were talked to in the white house between President Trump and President Ramaphosa were favourable for South Africa. It is expected that the AGOA agreement will continue, President Trump will attend the G20 summit, at talks in boost bilateral trade and investment, will continue.
Trade, Industry & Competition Minister Parks Tau said in an interview in Washington 'We are ready to negotiate on the offer submitted and while we are negotiating, we are proposing that the US maintains the reciprocal duty at no more than 10%,'.
Analysts are now starting to remodel the possible effects of more positive prospects for South-Africa /US trade and investments on South Africa's economic growth rate and the Rand/$ exchange rate.
This just after the Minister of Finance have downgraded the country's economic growth rate from 1.9% to 1.4% on the back of President Trump's tariff announcements on 'Liberty Day' at the beginning of April.
The minister of communications and digital technologies Solly Malatsi announced in a policy directive the proposed relaxing of Black economic empowerment (BEE) policies in the ICT sector. This will give the green light for the billionaire Elon Musk's Starlink to commence business in SA.
This may pay the part for other foreign businesses towards direct foreign investments in other sectors in South Africa.
The Rand/$ on its lowest level for 2025
On the foreign exchange market, the Rand improved against the US$ over the week by twenty-two cents to its strongest level this year of 17.88/$. Against the British £ the Rand depreciated by sixteen cents to R24.12/ £ and against the Euro by thirteen cents to R20.24/€.
The stronger Rand/$ rate, lower fuel prices over the last two months and the strong surge in the prices for gold, platinum and palladium are likely to keep the inflation rate below 3.0% till the next meeting of the MPC in June.
A cut of twenty-five basis points in the repo rate by the MPC became more a certainty, with the odds of another twenty-five basis points cut within the next six months, also a growing possibility. Especially if further trade talks with the US lead to a stronger Rand and precious metal prices continue to rise. US and European equities lower on tariff threats
On some global equity markets prices dropped sharply after US president Donald Trump again fueled the trade war by warning to levy high tariffs on the EU and smartphone giant Apple.
In Europe equity prices traded down 1.7%, the S&P 500 in the US lost 0.67% after the announcement trading 1.9% down over the week. 1.1% cent in early trading. President Trump wants to introduce a fifty per cent tax in June on all imports to the US from the EU, including on pharmaceuticals and luxury items.
He also intends to impose a twenty-five per cent tariff on Apple and Samsung on iPhones sold in the US but produced elsewhere. Prospects for this coming week
This coming week domestic and foreign investors await the release of South Africa's producer price inflation rate for April to be released by STASSA on Wednesday. It is expected that the annual increase in the PPI will be 0.7%.
This is higher than the annual producer inflation rate of 0.5% recorded for March 2025. The country's balance of trade numbers for April will be published on Thursday and the budget balance on Friday.
Globally, the US will release the Federal Reserve Open Market Commission (FOMC) minutes of their meeting in April.
The reasons for keeping its bank rate unchanged will be revealed. Its second estimate of GDP economic growth rate will be announced on Thursday.
The personal income and spending figures for April in the US will be announced on Friday. Canada will release its GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 on Friday.
Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education.
Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education.
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Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ From the military regimes of Ayub Khan and Zia-ul-Haq to the more modern, media-savvy control strategies under Pervez Musharraf, the trend has remained the same — muzzle dissent and protect power. The Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority, formed in 2002, was meant to regulate broadcast media. 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As it stands, Pakistan follows a model where property remains separate unless jointly titled—regardless of a woman's unpaid contributions to the household or her support for her husband's career. This issue has been spotlighted in Pakistan's courts. Image: Supplied In many societies, divorce is not just a personal rupture but a financial reckoning — especially for women. This is starkly true in Pakistan, where the legal system fails to recognise a woman's right to marital property, often leaving divorced wives with little more than the clothes on their backs. For South Africans watching global gender justice trends, Pakistan's legal landscape raises urgent questions about how tradition, law and social norms can entrench inequality in the private sphere. Despite Islam's emphasis on justice and the protection of the vulnerable, Pakistani women who exit a marriage often do so without any claim to assets acquired during the relationship. This is because Pakistan does not currently have legislation that guarantees women a share in property accumulated while married. As it stands, the country follows a model where property remains separate unless jointly titled, regardless of a woman's unpaid contributions to the household or her support for her husband's career. This issue has been spotlighted in Pakistan's courts. The Lahore High Court recently instructed the federal government to consult on a proposed amendment to the Muslim Family Laws Ordinance of 1961. The amendment, initially brought forward by Senator Barrister Syed Ali Zafar, introduces terms such as 'matrimonial asset' and seeks to give women fairer recognition of their contributions. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. 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Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ The court's intervention may become a turning point, as public discourse grows around the injustice of women leaving long marriages with nothing, despite having raised children, run households and sacrificed careers. To understand the impact, it helps to look beyond Pakistan's borders. Countries such as Turkey, Malaysia and Morocco — Muslim-majority states like Pakistan—have adopted laws that balance Islamic principles with modern family realities. In Turkey, marital assets are presumed to be jointly owned unless otherwise agreed. Malaysia takes both financial and non-financial contributions into account when dividing property. Morocco's Family Code permits couples to decide beforehand how to share property, with the law recognising joint management during the marriage. These countries demonstrate that religious values and women's rights need not be in conflict. Legal frameworks can uphold the dignity and equality of both spouses, particularly when marriages dissolve. Currently, Pakistan's system mirrors what legal scholars call a pure separate property regime. Under this model, property belongs only to the person who earned or acquired it. There is no assumption that marriage creates an economic partnership, and courts generally require strict proof of ownership. This often disadvantages women who have worked in the home or made indirect contributions, as they lack titles or formal income records. South Africa, by contrast, provides multiple options when couples marry, including community of property, which assumes equal ownership of assets acquired during the marriage. This legal approach acknowledges that both spouses contribute to the financial foundation of the household, even if in different ways. South African courts, when dividing property, also take into account each partner's needs, contributions and the duration of the marriage. It is a system far more aligned with the complex social reality of marriage than Pakistan's outdated laws. The cost of inaction in Pakistan is high. Women who divorce often lose access to shelter and income. Even where they have invested years in managing the home or caring for children, the law offers no recourse. Many end up dependent on their families or feel pressured into remarriage for economic survival. This perpetuates gendered cycles of poverty and limits women's agency. Pakistan has ratified the United Nations Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW), which requires states to ensure equality in marriage and family relations, including property rights. CEDAW's guidance calls for equal access to marital assets. Other Muslim-majority countries have made strides toward compliance. Tunisia and Iran, for instance, have introduced property-sharing rules that acknowledge both partners' roles in a marriage. Pakistan, however, remains out of step. Legal reform is not only a technical matter. It is about recognising that women are equal partners in family life, deserving of financial security when that partnership ends. Amending the Muslim Family Laws Ordinance to define and protect matrimonial property would help courts provide more consistent, fair outcomes. It would also signal that Pakistan is serious about its commitments to gender equality, both to its citizens and the global community. For South Africans, watching this debate unfold is a chance to reflect on how far we have come and how far others still need to go. In a world where women's rights are constantly under pressure, the battle for fairness within the family is as important as any public policy reform. Pakistan stands at a fork in the road. One path leads to continued injustice and economic hardship for women. The other leads to fairness, dignity and the recognition of women's work — paid or unpaid—as valuable and deserving of protection. The choice, now, is in the hands of lawmakers.
