Alcohol Stocks Tumble As Health And Cannabis Trends Surge

Forbes

2 days ago

Beer, wine and spirit sales are down as consumers recognize growing health concerns of consuming ... More alcohol. (Photo by)
Alcohol has been a part of society for thousands of years, but even the oldest industries are not immune to disruption. Demand for beer, wine and spirits has ebbed and flowed with changing tastes, economic cycles and cultural. Today, the alcohol industry is going through another soft patch, and the decline in the stock prices of major alcohol producers indicates the current slump in sales may be more than temporary.
Diversified conglomerates such as Diageo and Constellation Brands have seen their share prices drop meaningfully over the last several years. Diageo, maker of Guinness beer, Johnny Walker whisky, Don Julio tequila and Smirnoff vodka, has seen its stock price fall nearly 50% from its high at the end of 2021. The stock price of Constellation Brands, owner of Corona beer and Mondavi wines, has collapsed 33.5% over the last year. Brown-Forman, the 155-year-old company that makes Jack Daniel's whisky, is coping with a decline in sales and gross margins, as well as a 58% plunge in its total return over the last three years.
Alcohol stocks have lagged the S&P 500 over the last three years.
What is behind the global drop in demand? It's a combination of several factors, some of which are structural and others more cyclical. Generational changes in behavior, health and wellness concerns, economic pressures, and the rise of alternative recreational drugs are just a few of the trends impacting alcohol sales.
Understanding each of these trends — and whether they will accelerate or moderate — is crucial to determining whether the decline in alcohol stocks represents a value trap or an opportunity to purchase brand-leading companies at discounted valuations.
Trends Impacting Decline In Alcohol Sales
A December 2024 NCSolutions consumer sentiment survey found that nearly one in two Americans are trying to drink less alcohol in 2025, a 44% rise since 2023. This trend is led by Gen Z (ages 13-28), where 65% of those surveyed plan to reduce alcohol intake and 39% intend to adopt a dry lifestyle.
Social media platforms are filled with content promoting health and wellness, including the benefits of reducing or abstaining from alcohol. Some of these influencers are former addicts touting the dangers of alcohol abuse, while others, such as Andrew Huberman, approach the topic from a scientific and medical perspective.
Social media, and the fact that everybody has a camera on their phone, also creates fear of public shaming or having embarrassing moments go viral, deterring some Gen Z individuals from drinking. With many colleges and employers routinely checking the social media accounts of applicants, nobody wants these types of moments etched in history.
The U.S. Surgeon General's January 2025 report on alcohol and cancer risk was a warning to both consumers and producers. The report found that even one drink daily raises the risk of developing seven types of cancer. The Surgeon General recommends that cancer warning labels be placed on alcoholic beverages to increase public awareness of these risks, similar to what is done in South Korea.
Public awareness of the health risks of alcohol is growing. Gallup's Consumption Habits 2024 poll shows a new high of 45% of Americans say drinking one or two alcoholic beverages per day is bad for one's health. This marks a six-percentage-point increase since last year and a 17-point increase since the prior reading in 2018.
Cost-of-living pressures have also led to a decline in overall alcohol consumption. Consumers are going out less and are reluctant to spend up to $25 for a cocktail at higher-end bars and restaurants. "What has occurred is that occasions on which beer is consumed have decreased," said Constellation Brands CEO Bill Newlands in a call to investors following the release of Q1 FY 2026 results. However, Newlands noted that people are still spending the same amount of money on alcohol when they do go out.
Lifestyle trends like weight-loss medications and cannabis use are also putting a dent in alcohol sales. JP Morgan estimates there will be 30 million GLP-1 users in the U.S by 2030, or approximately 9% of the population. Obesity drugs such as Ozempic have been proven to reduce the desire for alcohol.
With the growing availability and legalization of cannabis, marijuana is becoming an alternative to drinking, particularly in younger generations. A December 2024 survey conducted by Bloomberg Intelligence found that approximately 74% of young adults aged 18-24 report using cannabis at least once a week as a substitute for alcohol. Many consumers view cannabis as a safer, healthier, and more controlled experience than alcohol, without the consequences of a hangover.
The threat to the alcohol industry is even more acute given the rise in popularity of THC-infused drinks. Fortune Business Insights projects the THC beverage market will grow from USD 3 billion in 2024 to USD 117 billion by 2032. THC-infused drinks provide a opportunity for cannabis companies to capture share of the beverage market.
Brown-Forman warned that the business is seeing pressure from cannabis, weight-loss drugs and lower demand from Generation Z. "We've been saying that for 1.5 years now. And I know on the sell-side that the world seems to be a little bit split on the extent of the pressure that it's putting on our category. We'd be naive if we didn't say that there isn't some pressure coming from those," said CEO Lawson Whiting in an earnings call in June.
Alcohol Industry Reaction To Downtrend
Global alcohol volumes shrank by -1% in 2024, according to IWSR, which specializes in data, analytics and insights for the alcohol industry. Volumes fell by -3% in the U.S. and by -5% in China. Despite the negative trends in many countries, several emerging markets offer growth prospects.
"Amid continuing challenges for beverage alcohol around the world, India is spearheading a new era of developing market expansion, with Brazil, Mexico, South Africa and Türkiye all poised for strong gains over the next decade," said Emily Neill is COO of Research & Operations at IWSR in a press release announcing its global growth forecast in alcohol sales.
With developed markets stagnating, many beverage companies have adopted premiumization models by upscaling their offerings to attract consumers who are choosing to drink less but are seeking higher-quality products. At the same time, firms are diversifying into non-alcoholic alternatives to capture the growing sober-curious market.
At least some savvy investors are betting on an industry recovery, including Warren Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway has increased its total stake in Constellation Brands, now owning 6.6% of the company. Constellation Brands' relatively attractive 13.3 times forward price-to-earnings ratio, combined with its top-tier beer brands, makes it a classic contrarian-value play for Berkshire.
The big worry for investors is that the decline in alcohol consumption is a generational reset and not just a temporary dip. Like tobacco before it, alcohol is being re-evaluated through the lens of health, culture, and social relevance. The companies that adapt and innovate in this new environment, not those that try to rekindle old habits, will be the ones that succeed.