How Israel's vow to change the Middle East has reverberated across the map
In the early 1960s, bombs arrived at the offices of multiple German scientists.
The bombs, wrapped like letters and parcels, were sent by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad.
The scientists were helping Egypt build rockets that could potentially carry radioactive waste.
A 60-year-old campaign against Egypt might seem a strange place to start a story about the Israel-Iran war, but these events are seen as the beginning of an Israeli political doctrine that is still being applied today.
It is called the Begin Doctrine — named for former Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin, who in June 1981 stated: "We shall not allow any enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction turned against us."
Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin (front) and foreign minister Moshe Dayan arrive at Andrews Air Force Base in 1978. ( Image: MSGT Denham )
Begin made the declaration as Israel launched air strikes on a nuclear reactor in Iraq, an act he called "anticipatory self-defence".
The language will feel very familiar to anyone listening to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today.
"This attack will be a precedent for every future government in Israel," Begin said in 1981.
"Every future Israeli prime minister will act, in similar circumstances, in the same way."
The same doctrine was at play in 2007, when Israel carried out another covert attack on an undeclared nuclear site, this time in Syria.
And it has been at the centre of the Israel-Iran war over the past two weeks, too.
A map of the Middle East shows Israel and Iran highlighted.
Iran's nuclear program — and the desire to stop it from obtaining a nuclear arsenal — has been Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's focus for decades.
Israel itself will not confirm or deny whether it has nuclear weapons, but the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute says it is among the nine countries that do.
Since Iran's theocratic regime took power after the revolution in 1979, the two countries have been sworn enemies.
Israel, according to Iran, was the "Little Satan" to the "Great Satan" United States. And for its part, Israel sees Iran as "the head of the snake" poised to strike it.
For decades, Israel and its allies — particularly the United States — have worked to ensure Iran doesn't expand its nuclear program to develop weapons.
Those efforts have come in various guises, including extensive diplomatic efforts but also allegedly the assassination of nuclear experts and targeted computer viruses aimed at crippling Iran's nuclear systems.
Throughout this time, one of the key factors seen as preventing a full-scale Israeli assault was Iran's 'axis of resistance' — a loose coalition of allied groups across the region, many with the ability to strike militarily against Israel.
But after Hamas's brutal attacks on Israelis on October 7, 2023 — which killed 1,200 people and saw more than 250 taken hostage — Netanyahu declared that Israel would "change the Middle East".
Since then, Israel has taken military action against a wide range of its neighbours, moves that have significantly weakened Iran's supporters.
In Gaza, Israel is fighting a long and bloody war that has killed more than 56,000 Palestinians, including 17,000 children, according to estimates from the Ministry of Health in Gaza.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says the situation in Gaza is dire: "Amid starvation and a growing likelihood of famine, attacks on civilians attempting to access food supplies continue, resulting in mass casualties."
Israel's stated goal has been to destroy Hamas, which it says is armed and funded by Iran and has proven its capacity to strike at the Israeli state and civilians.
Children in Gaza sit atop an unexploded ordinance. ( Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images )
In the West Bank, Israel has launched the widespread demolition of homes in refugee camps, displacing tens of thousands of Palestinians.
The operation initially targeted Palestinian militants in Jenin, before branching out to neighbouring cities and towns in a "significant" effort against Iranian-backed groups in the region, according to Netanyahu.
An Israeli soldier directs a bulldozer as it begins tearing down a house outside of Hebron. ( Reuters )
In Lebanon, Israel has launched deadly strikes into Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and elsewhere in the south of the country, as well as a pager attack that struck at the heart of Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah.
Smoke and flames erupt from a building hit by an Israeli air strike in Chiyah, in southern Beirut. ( AP: Bilal Hussein )
Syria's previous ruler, Bashar al-Assad, was a staunch enemy of Israel.
As a war against the Assad regime was waged inside the country's borders, Iran stepped up to provide extensive military supplies and troops.
When the regime fell and Assad fled to Moscow last December, it was a crucial blow to Iran's strongest ally in the region.
Syrians rejoiced the collapse of Assad's regime, waving the flag of the rebel group that ousted it. ( Reuters: Amr Abdallah )
In Yemen, Israel has launched air strikes to eliminate senior members of the Iran-backed Houthis.
The group, which also partially controls Yemen's air force, has launched attacks against Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza.
Last month, they orchestrated a ballistic missile attack on Israel's main international airport, an incident that sparked a series of retaliatory air strikes by Israel.
What all of these military moves — and perhaps most crucially the fall of the Assad regime in Syria — add up to is a new position of strength for Israel, opening the door for it to strike at Iran without facing strong, potentially deadly attacks from Tehran's allies in the region.
As such, the campaign against Iran could be seen as the latest stage in a fight to change the geopolitical landscape in the region for good.
"The big thing about the Middle East is that there are so many areas where the issues connect with each other," the former Australian ambassador to Lebanon, Ian Parmeter, said.
"What is happening now with Iran needs to be seen in the context of what started in October 2023.
"It moved on to Lebanon, has to some extent involved Yemen with the Houthis, and now has gone across to Iran."
Netanyahu himself spelled out the strategy this way in January: "We are acting methodically and with determination against the Iranian axis wherever it reaches — in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Judea and Samaria."
And most recently, those operations expanded to striking Iran directly.
Smoke rises following an Israeli attack on the IRIB building, the country's state broadcaster, in Tehran, Iran, June 16, 2025. ( Reuters: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) )
"It's the first war between Israel and Iran ever," said Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
On June 13, Israel launched strikes on dozens of targets in Iran, hitting nuclear sites and killing both scientists and Iranian paramilitary officials.
One of the men, nuclear physicist Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, had already survived a 2010 assassination attempt, which Tehran blamed on Israeli intelligence.
The strikes have so far left 4,870 Iranians injured and 627 dead, according to the country's health officials.
Iran fired back with multiple waves of ballistic missiles.
While Israel intercepted many of its missiles, over the following days, they made deadly strikes in Haifa, Tel Aviv, Be'er Sheva, and elsewhere.
The locations of some of the key Iranian missile strikes on Israel.
Israeli officials have reported at least 28 people killed and more than 3,000 injured by Iranian strikes.
And this week, the United States joined the fight, with president Donald Trump sending B-2 bombers and submarine-launched missiles to strike at the key nuclear targets of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
Iran retaliated, shooting ballistic missiles at a US military base near Qatar, though they reportedly provided advance notice beforehand.
US and UK officials warned their citizens in Qatar to shelter in place following a threat to Al Udeid air base on Monday night.
At least 13 Iranian missiles were "knocked down" by air defences, according to Mr Trump, with one more "set free".
Iran said it had launched as many missiles as the US had launched at its nuclear sites. There were no reports of casualties.
Two hours later, Mr Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire.
While the ceasefire appears to be holding for the moment, it remains unclear exactly how much damage was done to Iran's nuclear program.
Jessica Genauer, a senior lecturer on international relations at Flinders University, says it is hard to imagine Israel will walk away from an opportunity to push for regime change in Iran while the regime is historically weak.
And experts fear Iran could yet decide to accelerate its nuclear program as a result of these strikes, because they only serve to reinforce the need for a nuclear deterrent.
So, has Israel reshaped the Middle East?
Dr Genauer said it very much depends on how you define Israel's political and security objectives.
"If Israel's objective after October 7 was to severely degrade Iranian political and military capability, set back Iran's nuclear program, and undermine Iranian-backed forces across the region, then Israel has succeeded.
"We are looking at the weakest Iran has been militarily and politically for many decades.
"The leadership and military capability of Hamas and Hezbollah have been decimated — two of Iran's key military groups in the region.
"Regime change in Syria has curbed Iranian influence in the country. The Iranian-backed Houthi group in Yemen has been hit by Israeli and US strikes. Iran itself has been weakened by Israeli and US air strikes."
Fire from an Israeli attack on a Tehran oil refinery is seen following strikes south of Tehran on June 15, 2025. ( Reuters: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) )
Police stand next to a crater at an impact site following a missile attack from Iran, in Herzliya, Israel, June 17, 2025. ( Reuters: Ronen Zvulun )
Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke rise from an Israeli attack on Sharan oil depot, following Israeli strikes on Tehran on June 15, 2025. ( Reuters/Majid Asgaripour/WANA )
Emergency personnel operate after missiles were launched from Iran at Tel Aviv, in Israel, on June 16, 2025. ( Reuters: Ronen Zvulun )
But, Dr Genauer said, if Israel's objective was to effect regime change in Iran, or to create a Middle East with a transformed geopolitical and security landscape, then they had not succeeded.
"We are no closer, since October 7, to a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians that guarantees both Israeli and Palestinian security," he said.
"Iran and Israel remain deeply hostile towards each other. While Iranian-backed groups such as Hamas or Hezbollah may be severely weakened and take years to rebuild, their objectives have not changed.
"So, ultimately, the security situation in the Middle East looks much like it did prior to October 7.
"The main difference is the strength of capability of Iran and Iranian-backed groups, but there has been no fundamental shift in strategy or outlook from either Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, or other groups."
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Sky News AU
3 hours ago
- Sky News AU
Senate moves to discipline Mehreen Faruqi for anti-Israel protest
The Senate is debating a motion to discipline a Greens senator over her behaviour during the opening of Parliament on Tuesday. Greens Deputy Leader Mehreen Faruqi took part in an anti-Israel protest during the opening ceremony of the Senate. It mirrors a call from the Greens for the government to impose tougher financial sanctions on Israel.
News.com.au
3 hours ago
- News.com.au
UK launches first sanctions in new strategy to deter migrant crossings
The UK imposed sanctions Wednesday on more than two dozen people, groups and suppliers from the Balkans, the Middle East and China accused of helping migrants cross the Channel. In what it called a "landmark" first use of new powers, the move came as the government faces political pressure to stem migrant arrivals on small boats from northern France, at record levels. The asset freezes and travel bans announced target individuals and entities "driving irregular migration to the UK", and include four "gangs" and "gangland bosses" operating in the Balkans, the Foreign Office said. They also hit a small boat supplier in China, so-called "hawala" money movers in the Middle East, and seven alleged people-smugglers linked to Iraq. Foreign Secretary David Lammy called it "a landmark moment in the government's work to tackle organised immigration crime" impacting the UK. "From Europe to Asia we are taking the fight to the people-smugglers who enable irregular migration, targeting them wherever they are in the world," he added.  "My message to the gangs who callously risk vulnerable lives for profit is this: we know who you are, and we will work with our partners around the world to hold you to account." - 'Terrorising refugees' - Prime Minister Keir Starmer took office a year ago promising to curb the journeys by "smashing the gangs" that facilitate the crossings, but he has struggled to deliver. Nearly 24,000 migrants have made the perilous journey across the Channel so far in 2025, the highest ever tally at this point in a year. The issue has become politically perilous in the UK, blamed for helping to fuel the rise of the far-right and violence at anti-migrant demonstrations. Protests have erupted sporadically outside hotels believed to house asylum-seekers, with a recent demonstration outside one in Epping, east of London, descending into clashes that injured eight police officers. Riots sparked by the stabbing to death of three young girls in northwestern Southport a year ago also saw suspected asylum-seeker hotels attacked and anti-migrant sentiment on display. As part of its strategy to curb new arrivals, the government is also cracking down on illegal working, which European neighbours cite as a "pull factor" for UK-bound migrants. It announced late Tuesday a new agreement with delivery firms Deliveroo, Just Eat and Uber Eats which includes sharing the locations of asylum hotels to help tackle illegal working. Meanwhile in another new tactic, artificial intelligence technology will be trialled to assess disputed ages of asylum-seekers who claim to be children, the interior ministry said Tuesday. - 'Far-fetched' - Wednesday's designations represent the UK's first use of its new "Global Irregular Migration Sanctions Regime". It claims the regime is a "world first", empowering the Foreign Office to target foreign financiers and companies as well as individuals allegedly involved in facilitating people-smuggling to the UK. In all, it sanctioned 20 individuals, four gangs -- two Balkan groups and two of North African origin operating in the Balkans -- and Chinese firm Weihai Yamar Outdoor Product Co. It has advertised its small boats online "explicitly for the purpose of people-smuggling," the Foreign Office said. Among those facing curbs was Bledar Lala, described as an Albanian controlling "the 'Belgium operations' of an organised criminal group" involved in the crossings. The UK also targeted Alen Basil, a former police translator it accused of now leading a large smuggling network in Serbia, "terrorising refugees, with the aid of corrupt policemen". London hit alleged "gangland boss" Mohammed Tetwani with sanctions, noting he was dubbed the "King of Horgos" over his brutal running of a migrant camp in the Serbian town Horgos. Author and researcher Tom Keatinge, of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said the sanctions were "a new front in the UK's efforts to control a business model that brings profit to the enablers" and misery to victims. "However, I would caution against overpromising," he told AFP. "Talk of freezing assets and using sanctions to 'smash the gangs' seems far-fetched and remains to be seen. jj/har/dc
The Advertiser
3 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Accused Israeli restaurant protester remains in custody
A man accused of throwing food, water and chairs during a protest outside an Israeli restaurant will remain in custody for at least another week. Antwany Arnold, 50, applied for bail in Melbourne Magistrates Court on Wednesday afternoon after he was charged with affray and throwing a missile over the July 4 incident. Police allege he was among a group of pro-Palestine protesters who converged outside Israeli restaurant Miznon in Melbourne's CBD. Arnold allegedly participated in an anti-Israel chant before throwing food and two dining chairs in the direction of the restaurant. He's also accused of throwing water at a neighbouring restaurant on Hardware Lane. CCTV footage of the Miznon incident was played in court, alongside police body-worn camera footage of another incident in April where Arnold is accused of spitting on a man. It's alleged he was playing offensive chants from a speaker on Bourke Street in Melbourne's CBD when a member of the public told him to turn the audio off. Arnold is accused of then swearing at the man and making threats to kill, before spitting on the alleged victim as the police arrested him. He's also accused of using offensive language towards officers during the arrest. The court was told Arnold was bailed over the Bourke Street incident, with a condition to not enter the Melbourne CBD. It's alleged he breached those bail conditions during the Miznon incident and on another occasion in July when he attended a protest in the city. The prosecutor claimed Arnold's offending at the Israeli restaurant was politically motivated and his decision to protest should not absolve him of criminal responsibility. But defence lawyer Tim Hutton said the protest was not driven by anti-Semitism, rather the group was condemning the actions of Israel's defence force against the Palestinian people. Magistrate Michelle Mykytowycz said the purpose of the protest was separate to her consideration of Arnold's alleged offending and whether he was a risk to the community. Mr Hutton denied Arnold posed an unacceptable risk, telling the court the 50-year-old had attended weekly protests for the past two years without turning to violence. He was also planning to contest the charges so the delays might mean his time in pre-sentence detention could surpass any eventual sentence, the lawyer said. Arnold was also a vulnerable man who was finding his time in custody more difficult, the court was told. Mr Hutton argued a curfew and reporting condition could be added to Arnold's bail to reduce his risk to the community. Ms Mykytowycz said she would need time to re-watch the footage and consider other material before deciding on the application. Arnold will return to court on July 30 for the bail decision. A man accused of throwing food, water and chairs during a protest outside an Israeli restaurant will remain in custody for at least another week. Antwany Arnold, 50, applied for bail in Melbourne Magistrates Court on Wednesday afternoon after he was charged with affray and throwing a missile over the July 4 incident. Police allege he was among a group of pro-Palestine protesters who converged outside Israeli restaurant Miznon in Melbourne's CBD. Arnold allegedly participated in an anti-Israel chant before throwing food and two dining chairs in the direction of the restaurant. He's also accused of throwing water at a neighbouring restaurant on Hardware Lane. CCTV footage of the Miznon incident was played in court, alongside police body-worn camera footage of another incident in April where Arnold is accused of spitting on a man. It's alleged he was playing offensive chants from a speaker on Bourke Street in Melbourne's CBD when a member of the public told him to turn the audio off. Arnold is accused of then swearing at the man and making threats to kill, before spitting on the alleged victim as the police arrested him. He's also accused of using offensive language towards officers during the arrest. The court was told Arnold was bailed over the Bourke Street incident, with a condition to not enter the Melbourne CBD. It's alleged he breached those bail conditions during the Miznon incident and on another occasion in July when he attended a protest in the city. The prosecutor claimed Arnold's offending at the Israeli restaurant was politically motivated and his decision to protest should not absolve him of criminal responsibility. But defence lawyer Tim Hutton said the protest was not driven by anti-Semitism, rather the group was condemning the actions of Israel's defence force against the Palestinian people. Magistrate Michelle Mykytowycz said the purpose of the protest was separate to her consideration of Arnold's alleged offending and whether he was a risk to the community. Mr Hutton denied Arnold posed an unacceptable risk, telling the court the 50-year-old had attended weekly protests for the past two years without turning to violence. He was also planning to contest the charges so the delays might mean his time in pre-sentence detention could surpass any eventual sentence, the lawyer said. Arnold was also a vulnerable man who was finding his time in custody more difficult, the court was told. Mr Hutton argued a curfew and reporting condition could be added to Arnold's bail to reduce his risk to the community. Ms Mykytowycz said she would need time to re-watch the footage and consider other material before deciding on the application. Arnold will return to court on July 30 for the bail decision. A man accused of throwing food, water and chairs during a protest outside an Israeli restaurant will remain in custody for at least another week. Antwany Arnold, 50, applied for bail in Melbourne Magistrates Court on Wednesday afternoon after he was charged with affray and throwing a missile over the July 4 incident. Police allege he was among a group of pro-Palestine protesters who converged outside Israeli restaurant Miznon in Melbourne's CBD. Arnold allegedly participated in an anti-Israel chant before throwing food and two dining chairs in the direction of the restaurant. He's also accused of throwing water at a neighbouring restaurant on Hardware Lane. CCTV footage of the Miznon incident was played in court, alongside police body-worn camera footage of another incident in April where Arnold is accused of spitting on a man. It's alleged he was playing offensive chants from a speaker on Bourke Street in Melbourne's CBD when a member of the public told him to turn the audio off. Arnold is accused of then swearing at the man and making threats to kill, before spitting on the alleged victim as the police arrested him. He's also accused of using offensive language towards officers during the arrest. The court was told Arnold was bailed over the Bourke Street incident, with a condition to not enter the Melbourne CBD. It's alleged he breached those bail conditions during the Miznon incident and on another occasion in July when he attended a protest in the city. The prosecutor claimed Arnold's offending at the Israeli restaurant was politically motivated and his decision to protest should not absolve him of criminal responsibility. But defence lawyer Tim Hutton said the protest was not driven by anti-Semitism, rather the group was condemning the actions of Israel's defence force against the Palestinian people. Magistrate Michelle Mykytowycz said the purpose of the protest was separate to her consideration of Arnold's alleged offending and whether he was a risk to the community. Mr Hutton denied Arnold posed an unacceptable risk, telling the court the 50-year-old had attended weekly protests for the past two years without turning to violence. He was also planning to contest the charges so the delays might mean his time in pre-sentence detention could surpass any eventual sentence, the lawyer said. Arnold was also a vulnerable man who was finding his time in custody more difficult, the court was told. Mr Hutton argued a curfew and reporting condition could be added to Arnold's bail to reduce his risk to the community. Ms Mykytowycz said she would need time to re-watch the footage and consider other material before deciding on the application. Arnold will return to court on July 30 for the bail decision. A man accused of throwing food, water and chairs during a protest outside an Israeli restaurant will remain in custody for at least another week. Antwany Arnold, 50, applied for bail in Melbourne Magistrates Court on Wednesday afternoon after he was charged with affray and throwing a missile over the July 4 incident. Police allege he was among a group of pro-Palestine protesters who converged outside Israeli restaurant Miznon in Melbourne's CBD. Arnold allegedly participated in an anti-Israel chant before throwing food and two dining chairs in the direction of the restaurant. He's also accused of throwing water at a neighbouring restaurant on Hardware Lane. CCTV footage of the Miznon incident was played in court, alongside police body-worn camera footage of another incident in April where Arnold is accused of spitting on a man. It's alleged he was playing offensive chants from a speaker on Bourke Street in Melbourne's CBD when a member of the public told him to turn the audio off. Arnold is accused of then swearing at the man and making threats to kill, before spitting on the alleged victim as the police arrested him. He's also accused of using offensive language towards officers during the arrest. The court was told Arnold was bailed over the Bourke Street incident, with a condition to not enter the Melbourne CBD. It's alleged he breached those bail conditions during the Miznon incident and on another occasion in July when he attended a protest in the city. The prosecutor claimed Arnold's offending at the Israeli restaurant was politically motivated and his decision to protest should not absolve him of criminal responsibility. But defence lawyer Tim Hutton said the protest was not driven by anti-Semitism, rather the group was condemning the actions of Israel's defence force against the Palestinian people. Magistrate Michelle Mykytowycz said the purpose of the protest was separate to her consideration of Arnold's alleged offending and whether he was a risk to the community. Mr Hutton denied Arnold posed an unacceptable risk, telling the court the 50-year-old had attended weekly protests for the past two years without turning to violence. He was also planning to contest the charges so the delays might mean his time in pre-sentence detention could surpass any eventual sentence, the lawyer said. Arnold was also a vulnerable man who was finding his time in custody more difficult, the court was told. Mr Hutton argued a curfew and reporting condition could be added to Arnold's bail to reduce his risk to the community. Ms Mykytowycz said she would need time to re-watch the footage and consider other material before deciding on the application. Arnold will return to court on July 30 for the bail decision.
