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Otago Daily Times
7 days ago
- Health
- Otago Daily Times
Leader nuclear ‘red button' concerns
PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES When it comes to those who have the power to push "the big red button" and start a nuclear war, it has always been hoped that cool heads will prevail. But a University of Otago study shows there is growing concern about the leaders of nuclear-armed nations around the world, and how their health may be affecting their decision-making. Menachem Begin. The Doomsday Clock now sits at 89 seconds to midnight — the closest it has been to catastrophe since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, when the United States and Russia were brought to the brink of nuclear war. The closer it moves to midnight, the closer humanity is to the end of the world. University of Otago (Wellington) public health researcher Prof Nick Wilson said the world was again perilously close to the edge and, given that many former leaders of the world's nine nuclear-armed nations were impaired by health conditions while in office, there were concerns about their decision-making abilities while they had access to nuclear weapon launch codes. Richard Nixon. Prof Wilson, fellow researcher Associate Prof George Thomson and independent researcher Dr Matt Boyd found many of the leaders had multiple serious health issues while in office, including dementia, personality disorders, depression and drug and alcohol abuse. Their study analysed the health information of 51 deceased leaders of China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Prof Wilson said 15 leaders had confirmed or possible health issues which impaired their performance and likely hastened their departure. John F. Kennedy. In one case, Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin had severe depression and spent his last year as leader isolated in his home. "Impairment during crises was also seen in the case of Richard Nixon's bouts of heavy drinking, including during a nuclear crisis involving the Middle East." He said there were also cases where health information about leaders had been kept secret, including United States President John F. Kennedy, whose aides concealed that he had Addison's disease; and Ronald Reagan, whose administration hid the extent of his injuries after he was shot in 1981, and the likely signs of his dementia near the end of his term. Francois Mitterrand. Prof Wilson said Mr Kennedy's performance was likely impaired by Addison's disease, back pain and his use of anabolic steroids and amphetamines in 1961 when he authorised the failed CIA-backed Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba. In turn, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev's poor mental health probably contributed to him triggering both the Berlin Crisis and the Cuban Missile Crisis. And long-serving French President Francois Mitterrand clung to power until the end of his term in 1995, despite having advanced prostate cancer and his doctor concluding in late 1994 that he was no longer capable of carrying out his duties. A study of members of the British parliament also found they were 34% more likely to experience mental health problems than other high-income earners due to the stress of the job. Nikita Khrushchev. Following the rise in international instability caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it had become even more important to ensure there was good leadership and governance in those countries with nuclear weapons, Prof Wilson said. "This is particularly the case for the United States, where a leader can in principle authorise the release of nuclear weapons on their own — a situation referred to as a 'nuclear monarchy'." He said there was a range of measures which could reduce global security risks from leaders whose judgement was in question. Ronald Reagan. They included removing nuclear weapons from "high alert" status, adopting "no first use" policies where nations only used nuclear weapons in retaliation, ensuring any weapon launches needed authorisation by multiple people and progressing nuclear disarmament treaties. Requirements for medical and psychological assessments could be introduced for leaders before and during their terms, and democracies could also consider introducing term limits for their leaders, as well as recall systems, so voters could petition for politicians to step down, he said.
ABC News
26-06-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
How Israel's vow to change the Middle East has reverberated across the map
The geopolitical conditions for the Israel-Iran war have been brewing for decades, and the past 20 months have seen a titanic power shift. In the early 1960s, bombs arrived at the offices of multiple German scientists. The bombs, wrapped like letters and parcels, were sent by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. The scientists were helping Egypt build rockets that could potentially carry radioactive waste. A 60-year-old campaign against Egypt might seem a strange place to start a story about the Israel-Iran war, but these events are seen as the beginning of an Israeli political doctrine that is still being applied today. It is called the Begin Doctrine — named for former Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin, who in June 1981 stated: "We shall not allow any enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction turned against us." Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin (front) and foreign minister Moshe Dayan arrive at Andrews Air Force Base in 1978. ( Image: MSGT Denham ) Begin made the declaration as Israel launched air strikes on a nuclear reactor in Iraq, an act he called "anticipatory self-defence". The language will feel very familiar to anyone listening to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today. "This attack will be a precedent for every future government in Israel," Begin said in 1981. "Every future Israeli prime minister will act, in similar circumstances, in the same way." The same doctrine was at play in 2007, when Israel carried out another covert attack on an undeclared nuclear site, this time in Syria. And it has been at the centre of the Israel-Iran war over the past two weeks, too. A map of the Middle East shows Israel and Iran highlighted. Iran's nuclear program — and the desire to stop it from obtaining a nuclear arsenal — has been Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's focus for decades. Israel itself will not confirm or deny whether it has nuclear weapons, but the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute says it is among the nine countries that do. Since Iran's theocratic regime took power after the revolution in 1979, the two countries have been sworn enemies. Israel, according to Iran, was the "Little Satan" to the "Great Satan" United States. And for its part, Israel sees Iran as "the head of the snake" poised to strike it. For decades, Israel and its allies — particularly the United States — have worked to ensure Iran doesn't expand its nuclear program to develop weapons. Those efforts have come in various guises, including extensive diplomatic efforts but also allegedly the assassination of nuclear experts and targeted computer viruses aimed at crippling Iran's nuclear systems. Throughout this time, one of the key factors seen as preventing a full-scale Israeli assault was Iran's 'axis of resistance' — a loose coalition of allied groups across the region, many with the ability to strike militarily against Israel. But after Hamas's brutal attacks on Israelis on October 7, 2023 — which killed 1,200 people and saw more than 250 taken hostage — Netanyahu declared that Israel would "change the Middle East". Since then, Israel has taken military action against a wide range of its neighbours, moves that have significantly weakened Iran's supporters. In Gaza, Israel is fighting a long and bloody war that has killed more than 56,000 Palestinians, including 17,000 children, according to estimates from the Ministry of Health in Gaza. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says the situation in Gaza is dire: "Amid starvation and a growing likelihood of famine, attacks on civilians attempting to access food supplies continue, resulting in mass casualties." Israel's stated goal has been to destroy Hamas, which it says is armed and funded by Iran and has proven its capacity to strike at the Israeli state and civilians. Children in Gaza sit atop an unexploded ordinance. ( Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images ) In the West Bank, Israel has launched the widespread demolition of homes in refugee camps, displacing tens of thousands of Palestinians. The operation initially targeted Palestinian militants in Jenin, before branching out to neighbouring cities and towns in a "significant" effort against Iranian-backed groups in the region, according to Netanyahu. An Israeli soldier directs a bulldozer as it begins tearing down a house outside of Hebron. ( Reuters ) In Lebanon, Israel has launched deadly strikes into Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and elsewhere in the south of the country, as well as a pager attack that struck at the heart of Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah. Smoke and flames erupt from a building hit by an Israeli air strike in Chiyah, in southern Beirut. ( AP: Bilal Hussein ) Syria's previous ruler, Bashar al-Assad, was a staunch enemy of Israel. As a war against the Assad regime was waged inside the country's borders, Iran stepped up to provide extensive military supplies and troops. When the regime fell and Assad fled to Moscow last December, it was a crucial blow to Iran's strongest ally in the region. Syrians rejoiced the collapse of Assad's regime, waving the flag of the rebel group that ousted it. ( Reuters: Amr Abdallah ) In Yemen, Israel has launched air strikes to eliminate senior members of the Iran-backed Houthis. The group, which also partially controls Yemen's air force, has launched attacks against Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza. Last month, they orchestrated a ballistic missile attack on Israel's main international airport, an incident that sparked a series of retaliatory air strikes by Israel. What all of these military moves — and perhaps most crucially the fall of the Assad regime in Syria — add up to is a new position of strength for Israel, opening the door for it to strike at Iran without facing strong, potentially deadly attacks from Tehran's allies in the region. As such, the campaign against Iran could be seen as the latest stage in a fight to change the geopolitical landscape in the region for good. "The big thing about the Middle East is that there are so many areas where the issues connect with each other," the former Australian ambassador to Lebanon, Ian Parmeter, said. "What is happening now with Iran needs to be seen in the context of what started in October 2023. "It moved on to Lebanon, has to some extent involved Yemen with the Houthis, and now has gone across to Iran." Netanyahu himself spelled out the strategy this way in January: "We are acting methodically and with determination against the Iranian axis wherever it reaches — in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Judea and Samaria." And most recently, those operations expanded to striking Iran directly. Smoke rises following an Israeli attack on the IRIB building, the country's state broadcaster, in Tehran, Iran, June 16, 2025. ( Reuters: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) ) "It's the first war between Israel and Iran ever," said Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. On June 13, Israel launched strikes on dozens of targets in Iran, hitting nuclear sites and killing both scientists and Iranian paramilitary officials. One of the men, nuclear physicist Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, had already survived a 2010 assassination attempt, which Tehran blamed on Israeli intelligence. The strikes have so far left 4,870 Iranians injured and 627 dead, according to the country's health officials. Iran fired back with multiple waves of ballistic missiles. While Israel intercepted many of its missiles, over the following days, they made deadly strikes in Haifa, Tel Aviv, Be'er Sheva, and elsewhere. The locations of some of the key Iranian missile strikes on Israel. Israeli officials have reported at least 28 people killed and more than 3,000 injured by Iranian strikes. And this week, the United States joined the fight, with president Donald Trump sending B-2 bombers and submarine-launched missiles to strike at the key nuclear targets of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Iran retaliated, shooting ballistic missiles at a US military base near Qatar, though they reportedly provided advance notice beforehand. US and UK officials warned their citizens in Qatar to shelter in place following a threat to Al Udeid air base on Monday night. At least 13 Iranian missiles were "knocked down" by air defences, according to Mr Trump, with one more "set free". Iran said it had launched as many missiles as the US had launched at its nuclear sites. There were no reports of casualties. Two hours later, Mr Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire. While the ceasefire appears to be holding for the moment, it remains unclear exactly how much damage was done to Iran's nuclear program. Jessica Genauer, a senior lecturer on international relations at Flinders University, says it is hard to imagine Israel will walk away from an opportunity to push for regime change in Iran while the regime is historically weak. And experts fear Iran could yet decide to accelerate its nuclear program as a result of these strikes, because they only serve to reinforce the need for a nuclear deterrent. So, has Israel reshaped the Middle East? Dr Genauer said it very much depends on how you define Israel's political and security objectives. "If Israel's objective after October 7 was to severely degrade Iranian political and military capability, set back Iran's nuclear program, and undermine Iranian-backed forces across the region, then Israel has succeeded. "We are looking at the weakest Iran has been militarily and politically for many decades. "The leadership and military capability of Hamas and Hezbollah have been decimated — two of Iran's key military groups in the region. "Regime change in Syria has curbed Iranian influence in the country. The Iranian-backed Houthi group in Yemen has been hit by Israeli and US strikes. Iran itself has been weakened by Israeli and US air strikes." Fire from an Israeli attack on a Tehran oil refinery is seen following strikes south of Tehran on June 15, 2025. ( Reuters: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) ) Police stand next to a crater at an impact site following a missile attack from Iran, in Herzliya, Israel, June 17, 2025. ( Reuters: Ronen Zvulun ) Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke rise from an Israeli attack on Sharan oil depot, following Israeli strikes on Tehran on June 15, 2025. ( Reuters/Majid Asgaripour/WANA ) Emergency personnel operate after missiles were launched from Iran at Tel Aviv, in Israel, on June 16, 2025. ( Reuters: Ronen Zvulun ) But, Dr Genauer said, if Israel's objective was to effect regime change in Iran, or to create a Middle East with a transformed geopolitical and security landscape, then they had not succeeded. "We are no closer, since October 7, to a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians that guarantees both Israeli and Palestinian security," he said. "Iran and Israel remain deeply hostile towards each other. While Iranian-backed groups such as Hamas or Hezbollah may be severely weakened and take years to rebuild, their objectives have not changed. "So, ultimately, the security situation in the Middle East looks much like it did prior to October 7. "The main difference is the strength of capability of Iran and Iranian-backed groups, but there has been no fundamental shift in strategy or outlook from either Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, or other groups."
Wall Street Journal
19-06-2025
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
Netanyahu Passes the Begin Test
The world owes a debt of gratitude to Israel's prime minister—not Benjamin Netanyahu but Menachem Begin, who conceived Israel's nuclear nonproliferation strategy. Begin served as Israel's first right-wing prime minister, from 1977 to 1983. Three years into his tenure, he learned that Saddam Hussein's Iraq was building a nuclear reactor. 'I am tormented by this,' Begin told Parliament. 'I see before my eyes my two young nephews murdered in the Holocaust, and all the children of Israel. Back then it was gas; now it's radioactive poison.'
West Australian
18-06-2025
- Politics
- West Australian
AHRON SHAPIRO: Why Israel was forced to do the world's ‘dirty work' over Iran's non compliance
Forty-four years ago, then-Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin ordered the bombing of Iraq's nearly activated Osirak nuclear reactor to prevent Saddam Hussein from realising his ambition to produce nuclear weapons. Pre-emptively destroying an aggressive enemy's nuclear weapons capabilities, as the prime minister said, to 'ensure our people's existence,' became known as the Begin Doctrine. Before last Friday's surprise attack, Israel faced an Iranian nuclear ballistic weapons program far more advanced and threatening than that of Iraq in 1981. According to Israeli intelligence, in recent weeks Iran had secretly begun working on developing all the components of a nuclear warhead and therefore had crossed the final red line and triggered the last-ditch option Israel had set for itself: to bomb Iran's nuclear sites and other affiliated targets. What we are witnessing now is a return to the Begin Doctrine with full force. The Israeli Air Force's strikes on Iran's nuclear weapons development sites were an unavoidable consequence of Iran's determined and undeterred march towards a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile, the IAF simultaneously moved to eliminate top Iranian military commanders and other strategic targets. Jerusalem had good reason to do this — these are the elements that instituted a 'ring of fire' strategy which they openly say is designed to destroy Israel. This long-standing plan culminated in the Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023, subsequent attacks by Iran's other proxies, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqi and Syrian militias, before Iran itself attacked Israel with huge missile and drone barrages twice last year. Critics accuse Israel of acting recklessly or worse and not giving enough of a chance for diplomacy with the US and Europe to convince Iran to back down. In truth, Israel — and the US, which must have green-lighted the attack — had given diplomacy every opportunity to work. Over the past three decades, culminating in the most recent round of negotiations with the Trump Administration, Iran was offered many compromises, incentives and exit ramps that would have allowed them to use nuclear technology in a peaceful way and also save face. Yet the May 31 report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) described chapter and verse how obviously disinterested Iran was in any of that. The dire urgency of the situation leads to the inescapable conclusion: The time for diplomacy had finally run out. Once again, the report detailed the blatant ways Iran has been evasive, uncooperative and downright deceptive with IAEA inspectors, doggedly concealing the use of undisclosed nuclear sites going back over two decades. Moreover, the IAEA says that over the past four years it has lost its ability to adequately monitor Iran at all — that is, the IAEA admits it doesn't know how much it doesn't know about Iran's current nuclear activity. The body has determined that Iran possesses enough 60 per cent enriched uranium to produce up to 10 nuclear warheads. Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state ever to enrich uranium to this level, which has no civilian application. The body has also uncovered that Iran has worked on triggers for nuclear bombs. On June 12, the IAEA's Board of Governors finally had enough, formally declaring Iran in breach of its non-Safeguards Agreement, a crucial part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In response, Iran said it would activate a second, 'secret', enrichment site while upgrading its centrifuges at Fordow to make them enrich uranium ten times quicker. The IAEA's findings and the Board's resolution could pave the way for the issue to be referred to the UN Security Council, potentially leading to the 'snapback' of international sanctions that were lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) later this year. But was too late for sanctions to work in time. Iran's breakout time to a nuclear weapon has dwindled to nothing. Meanwhile, Israel cities are taking a pounding from Iran's indiscriminate attacks with its ballistic missiles. Given these realities, it seems hard to disagree with the comments of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz about the Israeli attack and Iranian response: 'This is the dirty work Israel is doing for all of us.' How does this affect Australia? Reports from Israel say the current operation could last another week to ten days, but US President Donald Trump has indicated that Iran could achieve a ceasefire if it was ready to accept previously proposed terms designed to neutralise its nuclear threat. The impact on the energy market may be sharp, but likely short-lived, since in order to affect actual supply, Iran would have to considerably escalate its attacks and spread them in new directions, against more regional countries. This could invite an American military response that would dwarf anything that Israel could muster. For years, Iran has played the entire world in this catastrophically dangerous game. Left with no other recourse, their bluff has finally been called. In the long run, this may be for the best, creating an opening for a brighter Middle East finally devoid of Iranian aggression and destabilisation. Ahron Shapiro is a Senior Policy Analyst at the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC).
The Hill
17-06-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Israel's preemptive war could finally push Iran to go nuclear
Israel has long pursued a strategy to remain the Middle East's sole nuclear-armed state, using military force to preempt or prevent other regional powers from acquiring nuclear-weapons capabilities. But Israel's strikes on Iran risk backfiring, with a wounded foe more determined than ever to acquire the nuclear bomb. Israel's strategic posture, institutionalized as the 'Begin Doctrine' after former Prime Minister Menachem Begin, holds that it will not allow any neighboring state to even approach nuclear-weapons capability. In practice, Israel has expanded this doctrine to block even peaceful nuclear programs under international safeguards. The Begin Doctrine was first operationalized in 1981 with the bombing of Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor, which was built by France for peaceful research and subject to International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. Though Iraq was a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and had agreed to stringent safeguards extending beyond international inspections to prevent reactor misuse, Israel claimed Baghdad harbored military ambitions and struck preemptively. The attack, which destroyed the $275 million reactor just before it was to become operational, was carried out with U.S.-supplied F-16 and F-15 aircraft. One French engineer and 10 Iraqi soldiers were killed. The operation triggered minimal diplomatic fallout for Israel, but pushed Saddam Hussein's nuclear program underground — an outcome that would later lead to the 2003 U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq under the false pretext of dismantling weapons of mass destruction. In 2007, Israel again invoked the Begin Doctrine to destroy a suspected nuclear reactor under construction in Syria. The al-Kibar facility was flattened in an airstrike dubbed Operation Orchard. Israeli intelligence claimed the project, allegedly aided by North Korea, had covert military dimensions. The IAEA concluded three years later that the destroyed facility was 'very likely' a nuclear reactor under development. These precedents pale in comparison to Israel's current military campaign against Iran, dubbed Operation Rising Lion, which aims to wipe out Iran's nuclear program. The stakes are exponentially higher: Iran is a larger, more capable adversary located beyond Israel's immediate neighborhood. And unlike Iraq or Syria in decades past, Iran has already accumulated significant nuclear know-how and material. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, invoking the Begin Doctrine, claimed that Iran was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons and vowed that Israeli strikes would continue 'as long as necessary' to neutralize the threat. But this assertion lacks backing from key intelligence assessments. On March 25, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified that the American intelligence community had assessed that 'Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.' However, Gabbard — and the IAEA separately in a recent report — expressed concern over Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, which, if enriched further to 90 percent, would become weapons-grade material. The IAEA, like Gabbard, concluded there was no evidence of a structured nuclear-weapons program underway. Yet Israel pressed ahead with its military strikes. Netanyahu's government, in coordination with the Trump administration, seems to believe that such force will buy leverage at the diplomatic table. In reality, the attacks are likely to achieve the opposite. Far from forcing concessions, the Israeli strikes have derailed nuclear diplomacy. Tehran has suspended talks indefinitely, accusing Washington of coordinating and authorizing the Israeli operation. This mirrors a pattern from Trump's first term, when his 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran backfired, hardening Iranian resolve rather than moderating it. Indeed, if Israel's goal is to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat, this strategy may prove deeply counterproductive. Two key factors make this preemptive war particularly perilous. First, Israel cannot destroy Iran's nuclear program by military means alone. Tzachi Hanegbi, Netanyahu's own national security adviser, acknowledged on Israeli television on June 13 that Iran's program 'cannot be destroyed through kinetic means.' A negotiated settlement, he suggested, was the only sustainable option. But with the collapse of diplomacy and deepening Iranian hostility, Israel may be forcing Iran toward the very nuclear path it wants to prevent. Tehran could emulate North Korea's playbook: withdraw from the NPT, eject IAEA inspectors and weaponize its nuclear assets at speed. North Korea withdrew from the NPT in 2003 and tested a nuclear bomb just three years later, becoming a de facto nuclear-weapons state. Iran, heavily sanctioned and increasingly isolated, may now conclude that it has little to lose from following suit. If Iran raises enrichment from 60 percent to 90 percent purity — a short technical leap — it could rapidly convert its uranium stockpile into bomb-grade material. That would mark a historic failure of U.S. and Israeli nonproliferation strategy and hand Tehran the strategic deterrent it long claimed not to seek. Second, the underlying logic of the Israeli campaign may no longer be about nuclear rollback but rather regime change. Netanyahu has openly called for the fall of the Iranian regime, and Israeli strikes have expanded beyond nuclear and military sites to include economic infrastructure, energy facilities and civilian aviation hubs. This broadening of war aims could lock Israel into a prolonged military confrontation with Iran — a campaign that could exact heavy human and economic costs. Even before the Iran operation, Israeli society was showing signs of war fatigue, with growing numbers of reservists declining to report for duty. Meanwhile, U.S. forces are increasingly entangled in the conflict. In defending Israel from retaliatory missile and drone attacks, American troops are already operating in air, land and naval roles. A broader U.S. intervention remains a distinct risk. Israel has long justified its aggressive posture on existential grounds. Its small size and hostile environment, it argues, require proactive and sometimes disproportionate defense measures. But the line between deterrence and provocation is perilously thin — and it may now have been crossed. History shows that Israel's pursuit of short-term tactical victories often undermines its long-term strategic interests. The Osirak attack contributed to decades of conflict in Iraq. The al-Kibar strike delayed but did not eliminate Syria's nuclear ambitions. And now, Operation Rising Lion could go down as the moment when Israel's policy of preemption made an Iranian bomb inevitable. Israel remains the Middle East's preeminent military power, possessing not only superior conventional forces but also undeclared nuclear weapons. That should afford it the confidence to pursue measured strategies. Instead, by trying to preserve its nuclear monopoly through force, Israel risks fueling the very proliferation spiral it has long sought to prevent. Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and the author of nine books, including the award-winning 'Water: Asia's New Battleground.'
