Six months in, Trump's numbers are stronger than in his first term
Unquestionably, President Trump remains a divisive political figure. However, he has expanded his base and continues to hold it. In contrast, Democrats have been unable to capitalize on Trump's political vulnerabilities and have lost ground compared to 2017.
With the House's passage of his rescission package, Trump scored another major win. He has had many, both at home and abroad: a successful strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, enactment of the ' big, beautiful ' budget reconciliation bill, a multitude of favorable Supreme Court decisions, DOGE's cuts, closing the border and deportations.
Trump is doing what he promised. His base should be pleased. It is a striking contrast from 2017 when he had a much more mixed record: enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act but an Obamacare fiasco.
However, while today's accomplishments play well to his base, how is Trump doing overall?
The answer is important because Republicans took a beating in 2018's midterm elections, Democrats gaining 41 seats in the House and the majority. Trump's ability to pass legislation was derailed, his administration was continually dogged by House investigations and he was impeached twice.
Trump remains divisive. That hasn't changed and clearly never will. Six months after his inauguration, according to the July 20 RealClearPolitics average of national polls, Trump's net job approval rating was minus-6.6 percentage points.
His average approval rating of 45.5 percent is 4.4 percentage points below his share of the 2024 popular vote.
However, Trump is well ahead of where he was at roughly the same point in his first term. On July 19, 2017, Trump was at minus-16 percentage points in his job approval: 39.7-55.7 percent.
Further, Trump's current job approval-disapproval rating is 50 to 48 percent in Real Clear Politics' only poll (Rasmussen) of likely voters — which is tied with his share of 2024's popular vote.
Trump's comparatively favorable showing is carrying over to congressional Republicans. In the July 22 RealClearPolitics average of national generic congressional vote polling, Democrats lead by 3 percentage points. To put this into historical context, we can look back at the earliest generic vote polls in July of the even years before each of the last six congressional elections, Democrats led in all six, yet the subsequent elections were a different story. Democrats lost either House or Senate seats in five of those elections.
Looking more closely at today, the Democrats' average lead in likely voter generic polls (Rasmussen and Cygnal) — again the ones who matter most — Democrats' average lead is just 2.5 percentage points.
A lot has changed in eight years. back in 2017, Trump's 2016 presidential victory was still being dismissed by some — including some Republicans — as a fluke, a factor of Hillary Clinton's weakness more than his strength. Not so much this time. Trump's 2024 victory was decisive and even quite impressive, considering the obstacles he faced — including but not limited to Democrats' lawfare, two assassination attempts and a concertedly negative establishment media.
In office, Trump looked less in control, especially early on. Congressional Republicans reflected this and appeared to be in disarray, as exemplified by their failed efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare. The results reflected this — particularly their loss of 42 House seats in 2018.
Of course, there are caveats about projecting too much from such an early look ahead to 2026.
Today's generic numbers come from a much more greater number of polls than had been taken in some of those six previous elections. Republicans' numbers could yet slide. But they could also improve. Trump's approval ratings could slide too. But the same upside potential applies here as well.
Invariably, there will be more polling of likely voters as the 2026 election nears — again, the ones that count (or rather, vote) — among whom Trump has historically outperformed among them.
Many new issues will arise in the year and a half before 2026's midterms. Yet none may be larger than the negative one on Democrats' horizon: Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani's nomination as their candidate for mayor of New York City.
Should Mamdani win, he will draw attention away from Trump and onto a set of controversial policies and positions that many Americans view as extreme. He will also exacerbate fissures among Democrats.
Although Trump is divisive, he is not dividing his base. And Trump's base is far bigger than it was eight years ago. Democrats are not capitalizing on Trump's divisiveness. They remain leaderless and look more divided than Republicans.
J.T. Young is the author of the recent book, 'Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America's Socialist Left' from RealClear Publishing and has over three decades' experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, the Office of Management, and Budget, and representing a Fortune 20 company.
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