U.S. jobs data "very unreliable," top Trump econ adviser says
Why it matters: One of the top advisers to the leader of the world's largest economy is effectively saying one of the most crucial datapoints on that economy isn't particularly trustworthy, and hasn't been for years.
Catch up quick: On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported weak job growth in July, with historic downward revisions to the May and June numbers that suggested the labor market was all but flat in recent months.
Hours later, Trump claimed — without any evidence — that the report was rigged, and he fired BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer.
What they're saying: "I don't think it was explained very well and I think that markets might be as much unsettled by the fact that the data are so noisy," Hassett told "Fox News Sunday."
"So imagine if the revision in the data — so the correction of errors — is five times bigger than the number itself. Then that makes you wonder 'well can I believe this number at all?' And I think that that's actually something that needs to be fixed, it needs to be fixed fast," Hassent said.
"I think that the president is right to call for new leadership. I think Erika is a terrific person, but I think that it's time for someone to get in there and fix this," Hassett said, arguing that the data never recovered from problems that began during the pandemic.
"If the data aren't that good, then it's a real problem for the U.S. And right now the data are — have become very unreliable with these massive revisions over the last few years."
Zoom in: Hassett, in a subsequent interview with NBC's "Meet the Press," said Trump wanted his own people running BLS to achieve "more transparent and more reliable" data.
"If there are big changes and big revisions — we expect more big revisions for the jobs data in September, for example — then we want to know why," he said.
But pressed repeatedly for hard evidence that the data were rigged or manipulated for political reasons, Hassett would say only that the revisions proved the data were wrong.
The big picture: There is little precedent for the government's senior economic leaders openly questioning the fundamental quality of the nation's core macroeconomic data.
It comes as international investors have just started regaining confidence in the U.S., following the emergence of a tariff-driven " Sell America" trade earlier this year.
The intrigue: Condemnation of Trump's move was swift, not just from Democrats, but from Republican lawmakers and economists.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), ordinarily a strong Trump supporter, told The Guardian that firing McEntarfer was "kind of impetuous" and added "it's not the statistician's fault if the numbers are accurate and that they're not what the president had hoped for."
GOP Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) also reportedly spoke out against the move.
William Beach, who was appointed BLS commissioner by Trump in his first term, said on CNN's "State of the Union" that "there's no way for" McEntarfer to rig the data, as Trump claimed last week.
He added that the commissioner doesn't even see the final, fully calculated number until two days before its release and their job at that time is "to kind of do the edits on the text. So there's no hands-on at all for the commissioner."
Beach also said that revisions to data are commonplace, since the initial jobs data is conducted like a survey and not all of the businesses turn their numbers in before the deadline.
"BLS keeps the door open for two more months to get more information. So what you saw on Friday was the effect of trying to do a better job, getting more information," Beach said of the revisions for May and June in Friday's report.
The bottom line: Beach said Trump firing McEntarfer "undermines credibility in BLS."
"Suppose that they get a new commissioner, and this person, male, female, are just the best people possible, right? And they do a bad number. Well everybody's going to think 'well it's not as bad as it probably really is,' because they're going to suspect political influence," Beach said.
What to watch: The next jobs report is in 33 days.
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The bull case for stocks isn't backed by a call for US economic growth to suddenly inflect higher or interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to suddenly spark a broad market rally. As we wrote in Tuesday's Yahoo Finance Morning Brief newsletter, the bull case in stocks is still being driven by AI investment and its ability to push corporate profits higher. "For our bull case scenario to play out, tariff costs would shift mostly to the supplier having a negligible impact on US corporate profits," Inui wrote. "At the same time, AI adoption accelerates and starts to have a real impact on profitability through efficiency gains." Another Wall Street strategist has boosted their year-end S&P 500 target. In a note to clients on Tuesday, HSBC head of equity strategy for the Americas Nicole Inui boosted her year-end S&P 500 target to 6,400 from 5,600. Inui also detailed a bull-case scenario in which an "AI fueled rally" brings the benchmark index to 7,000 by year-end and a bear-case scenario in which tariff impacts drag the S&P 500 down to 5,700. "We have more confidence in the sustainability of the AI trade than further easing on policy uncertainty," Inui wrote. In other words, the risks are more heavily weighted to the bull case outcome. This reveals a key takeaway from how Wall Street is talking about the potential path higher for an S&P 500 that's already near record highs. The bull case for stocks isn't backed by a call for US economic growth to suddenly inflect higher or interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to suddenly spark a broad market rally. As we wrote in Tuesday's Yahoo Finance Morning Brief newsletter, the bull case in stocks is still being driven by AI investment and its ability to push corporate profits higher. "For our bull case scenario to play out, tariff costs would shift mostly to the supplier having a negligible impact on US corporate profits," Inui wrote. "At the same time, AI adoption accelerates and starts to have a real impact on profitability through efficiency gains." Countries push for last-minute deals as Thursday tariff deadline looms Yahoo Finance's Ben Wersckul reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Ben Wersckul reports: Read more here. Hims & Hers stock slides 6% after second quarter revenue misses forecasts Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports: Read more here. PMI data points to 'encouragingly robust' economic activity to start the third quarter Activity in the services continued to expand during the month of July, according to two data releases on Tuesday morning. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services PMI registered a reading of 50.1 in July, down from June's reading of 50.8, and below the 51.5 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected. Readings above 50 for this index indicate an expansion in activity, while readings below 50 indicate contraction. The manufacturing sector has been in contraction for most of the past two years. "July's PMI level continues to reflect slow growth, and survey respondents indicated that seasonal and weather factors had negative impacts on business," Steve Miller, the chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey committee, said in the release. "The most common topic among survey panelists remained tariff-related impacts, with a noticeable increase in commodities listed as up in price." Elsewhere on Tuesday, S&P Global's composite PMI, which combines both activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, registered a reading of 55.1 in July, up from 52.9 the month prior. 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JD Vance to visit Indiana amid push for redistricting. Will Braun call special session?
Vice President JD Vance is visiting Indianapolis on Aug. 7 to speak with Gov. Mike Braun about the possibility of redistricting the state's congressional districts amid the Trump administration's push to increase the GOP majority in the House. Braun didn't rule out calling a special session to redraw the Hoosier State's congressional districts in an attempt to squeeze in another Republican seat ahead of the 2026 midterms. Republicans already hold seven of Indiana's nine U.S. House seats, but Braun's comments come as the Trump administration has encouraged other states to take up mid-decade redistricting to help maintain a GOP majority in the House after next year's elections. The redistricting process is already underway in Republican-led Texas where new congressional maps would give the GOP in that state five additional U.S. House seats. The effort resulted in Texas Democrats fleeing to Illinois on Aug. 3 to disrupt legislative procedures. What would it take to redistrict in Indiana? Braun would have to call a special session for the Indiana General Assembly if Republicans decide they want to redraw Hoosier congressional maps. House Speaker Todd Huston and Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray, both Republicans, have not responded to IndyStar questions through spokespeople about whether Trump has contacted them or if they have an appetite to draft new maps. It's likely U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan's 1st District seat in Northwest Indiana would be a signature focus of any redistricting efforts at the Statehouse, although some national outlets have reported longtime Indianapolis U.S. Rep. Andre Carson's 7th District seat could be targeted as well. National Republicans have targeted Mrvan's seat as a flip opportunity for the last two election cycles and are poised to again in 2026, especially as Northwest Indiana's rust belt communities have voted more Republican over the years. 'I think this seat is one that belongs in the Republican column,' House Speaker Mike Johnson told IndyStar in 2024. But Mrvan has still defeated his Republican challengers, winning reelection in 2022 by nearly six percentage points and in 2024 by eight percentage points. When did Indiana last go through redistricting? State lawmakers last went through redistricting in 2021 following the 2020 U.S. Census. At that time, Republicans left Mrvan's seat alone. Instead, they further cemented GOP grip on the 5th Congressional District after now-U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz defeated Democrat Christina Hale by four points in a nationally-watched race in 2020. Since then, Spartz has won general election contests in 2022 and 2024 by double-digit percentage points over her Democratic opponents. The 2021 congressional maps also adjusted the boundaries of the 6th Congressional District, now represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Jefferson Shreve, to include the southern portion of Indianapolis. Some Republicans at the time criticized the move as potentially minimizing the voices of more rural communities in that district. This story will be updated. Contact IndyStar state government and politics reporter Brittany Carloni at Sign up for our free weekly politics newsletter, Checks & Balances, curated by IndyStar politics and government reporters. This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: JD Vance to visit Indiana amid push for redistricting
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AMD posts mixed Q2 results but offers better than expected Q3 outlook on AI sales
AMD (AMD) reported its second quarter results after the bell on Tuesday, missing on adjusted earnings per share (EPS), but beating analysts expectations on revenue. The company also provided better than anticipated Q3 guidance of between $8.4 billion and $9 billion. Wall Street was expecting $8.3 billion. The announcement comes ahead of rival and market leader Nvidia's (NVDA) own earnings report later this month. AMD stock was flat following the news. The company's shares are up 44% year to date and 29% over the last 12 months, while Nvidia shares are up 32% and 77%, respectively. For the quarter, AMD saw adj. EPS of $0.48 on revenue of $7.6 billion. Wall Street was expecting EPS of $0.49 on revenue of $7.4 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. AMD says it saw an $800 million impact from the Trump administration's ban on the sale of the company's MI308 AI chips to China. Nvidia took a $4.5 billion write-down from the ban in Q1 and said it expects a larger $8 billion hit in its second fiscal quarter. Trump reversed course on the ban last month, which should help make up for some of those losses in the coming quarters. AMD should also benefit from the launch of its MI350 line of AI chips, designed to go toe-to-toe with Nvidia's Blackwell-powered chips. According to AMD, the MI350 line, which includes the MI350X and MI355X, offers four times the AI compute performance and a 35x increase in inferencing capabilities versus its predecessors. AMD's Data Center segment revenue topped out at $3.2 billion, meeting Wall street expectations. The company saw $2.8 billion in the segment last year. Beyond the Data Center segment, AMD's Client business, which includes sales of CPUs for desktops and laptops, generated $3.6 billion in revenue versus an anticipated $2.5 billion. Email Daniel Howley at dhowley@ Follow him on X/Twitter at @DanielHowley. Sign in to access your portfolio
