Local giants step up as foreign funds retreat

New Straits Times

2 days ago

KUALA LUMPUR: As foreign investors retreat, the spotlight is now on domestic institutional heavyweights to steady the ship, fuelling a cautiously optimistic outlook for the local equity market.
Although foreign shareholding fell to its lowest level in over a decade in June, analysts believe renewed domestic support could help stabilise the market in the near term.
SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes believes local institutional investors could step up to support the market in July.
He cited the likes of the Employees Provident Fund and Permodalan Nasional Bhd which may accumulate shares, particularly in large banks, utilities and high-dividend stocks.
"If volatility settles and earnings hold up, that interest may extend into mid-cap stocks and real estate investment trusts," he told Business Times.
"There is definitely value in Malaysian equities, especially those with attractive dividends. Local funds may view this as a window to increase exposure."
Still, when it comes to the prospect of foreign investors returning to Malaysian equities in the near term, most analysts remain cautious.
Foreign shareholding in Malaysian equities fell to its lowest level since 2010, declining to 19 per cent in June, according to data compiled by CIMB Securities.
The drop followed a net sell-off of RM1.3 billion by foreign investors during the month, reversing their net buying position in May.
This brought cumulative net foreign outflows for the first half of 2025 to RM12.1 billion. Since 2010, total net foreign outflows from Malaysian equities have reached RM50.6 billion.
Bank Muamalat chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the sharp decline in foreign shareholding signals waning investor appetite and the need for stronger domestic catalysts to reignite interest.
He said the drop could reflect several factors, including rising risk aversion amid the uncertain global economic outlook, tariff shocks and escalating geopolitical tensions.
Another issue, he added, is the lacklustre appetite for Malaysian equities, despite their attractive valuations based on price-to-earnings (PE) multiples.
"The prevailing PE ratio is hovering around 14 times, which is well below the historical average of 17 times. On that note, weaker earnings prospects may have hindered interest among foreign investors.
"So yes, I think the government needs to take heed from such statistics. They point to a lack of confidence," he said.
Afzanizam said that for foreign funds to return, key economic reforms, particularly fiscal consolidation, must be part of the equation.
He noted that fiscal discipline would create more room for targeted cash transfer programmes, boosting consumer spending and, ultimately, gross domestic product growth.
"Fiscal consolidation could also translate into higher development spending that can propel important sectors in Malaysia.
"This ultimately could result in multiplier effects across other industries such as construction, manufacturing and services," he said.
However, Innes warned that Malaysia's close trade ties with China now pose a structural risk.
As Western economies move to de-risk their supply chains, especially in electric vehicles, solar panels and semiconductors, Malaysia may face secondary pressure on its exports and corporate earnings.
"If Chinese demand weakens further, Malaysia could see secondary pressure on both exports and earnings visibility. Until there's greater clarity on global trade flows and a reason to re-risk emerging markets, foreign funds are likely to stay cautious.
"The setup is not broken, but it's not compelling enough yet for a decisive re-entry," he added.
Meanwhile, CIMB Securities noted in its monthly wrap note that local retail participation in the equity market weakened sharply in June.
The average daily trading value by retail investors fell 17.3 per cent month-on-month, the steepest drop among all investor categories, bringing their market participation share down to 16 per cent, from 17 per cent in May.
"Local retail investors remained net sellers for the third straight month in June, with their net sell value rising 2.7 times month-on-month to RM393 million," it said.
The largest net outflow came from the utilities sector, where retail investors sold RM313.8 million worth of shares, marking their fifth consecutive month of exits from the segment.
In contrast, institutional and foreign investors were net buyers in utilities and other selected sectors, reflecting a divergence in investment strategies amid heightened policy and earnings uncertainty.
Overall, CIMB Securities said retail investors' net position for the first half of 2025 remained in positive territory at RM1.65 billion.