Video forensic suggests Khamenei may have moved away from residence

India Today

19-06-2025

In the raging conflict between Israel and Iran is a central figure: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader. Political rhetoric from his adversaries suggests his life could be at risk.While Trump has said that the US knows his exact location but 'won't take him out' for now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not ruled out the possibility of his assassination.advertisement
Amid growing reports about Khamenei being shifted to a bunker, his latest official video, released on June 18, offers subtle yet telling signs of a possible relocation. A forensic analysis of the footage suggests major changes and downgrades in production quality and setup, indicating makeshift arrangements, far from his usual studio-quality environment.A day after Trump's demand of an 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER' of Iran, Khamenei released a video message on his Telegram channel, cautioning that any US military action would result in 'serious and irreparable consequences'. It marked his second public appearance since the attacks began on June 13.In a forensics analysis, India Today's Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) noticed unusual technical deviations in the production of the latest video as against previous videos released by his office. The unusual changes suggest that Khamenei has been relocated to another place, or at least the video was shot in a completely different environment.advertisementWhile the tight shot—showing only beige curtains, an Iranian flag, and a portrait of Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Khamenei's predecessor, who died in 1989—offered no clear indication of his location, some visual clues do offer some insights.In the new video, Khamenei is seen using a lapel mic instead of the higher-quality stand microphones typically used in his addresses. The overall video quality also appears lower. While previous videos from his office maintain high-resolution standards, this one looks significantly compressed, suggesting a less sophisticated setup.A technical comparison is even more revealing. His June 10 address, which is under four minutes long, had a file size of 24 MB with a video bitrate of 892 kbps and audio at 95.4 kbps. The June 18 video, despite being more than nine minutes long, is only 18 MB in size. The video bitrate drops to 256 kbps, and the audio quality plunges to a mere 2.4 kbps.A higher bitrate translates into higher image quality, and vice versa. As its name suggests, bitrate is the rate at which bits (of data) are processed or transferred. The bitrate is measured in seconds. The bitrate measuring units range from bps for small units, and Kbps, Mbps & Gbps for higher bit rates.advertisementThese numbers strongly suggest that the video was recorded using downgraded or improvised equipment, pointing to a likely shift in location. The absence of standard broadcast tools and the sudden drop in technical quality lend weight to the theory that Khamenei may now be operating from a more secure, possibly underground, site.This aligns with reports from the London-based news channel, Iran International, which claimed that he had been moved to an underground bunker in Lavizan, northeastern Tehran.The low bitrate strongly suggests that the video was manually or tool-compressed after filming. The audio was also downsampled—likely to remove ambient noise that could reveal clues about his location.This marks a clear deviation from his typical broadcast quality, which involves professional-grade cameras and high-fidelity audio.The aggressive compression of audio and video quality is likely intended to strip ambient cues and reduce metadata, thereby minimising the risk of geolocation or acoustic analysis.IRAN'S POWER CENTREFor decades, Ayatollah Khamenei has been at the heart of Iran's hard-line foreign policy, positioning the country as a counterweight to American, Israeli, and Saudi influences across West Asia.As Iran's supreme leader, he sits above all other branches of government. He appoints the heads of the judiciary, state media and key security agencies, and he holds final authority over who can run for president.Ayatollah Khamenei also controls foreign and military policy, overseeing the Revolutionary Guards Corps, which defends Iran's Islamic system and sits apart from the rest of the military, and the powerful Quds Force, which directs Iran's foreign operations across the Middle East. His authority extends to the nuclear program, placing him at the centre of Iran's escalating confrontation with Israel.Must Watch