England? Spain? What do stats say about who will win Euro 2025?

BBC News

a day ago

At Euro 2022 Chloe Kelly's extra-time winner at Wembley fired England to their first major title as they capitalised on home advantage.But three years is a long time in football and, despite not having got past the quarter-finals for 28 years, Opta's pre-tournament projections have Spain as the clear favourites to reign supreme this summer.The world champions, who lost to the Lionesses in the last eight in 2022, have been given a 25% chance of winning Euro 2025 according to Opta's prediction model.Should they do so, La Roja would become only the second women's team in history to win the World Cup and the European Championships back to back, after Germany, who won five major tournaments in a row between 2001 and 2009 (three Euros, two World Cups).Defending champions England are predicted to be the strongest challengers to Spain, with Sarina Wiegman's side given a 17% chance of defending their crown.The Lionesses navigate their way to the final in almost a third of Opta's simulations (29%) and who better to steer their ship than the Dutchwoman, who has an unblemished record at the Women's Euros, winning 12 out of 12 matches - six with the Netherlands in 2017 and six with England in 2022.However, should Spain and England both win their groups, they will be on course to meet in the semi-finals in Switzerland, and we will be denied a re-run of the 2023 World Cup final that the Spaniards won 1-0 in Sydney.Opta's prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome - win, draw or loss - by using betting market odds and our own team rankings, which are based on historical and recent team performances. The model then considers opponent strength and the difficulty of their path to the final.
According to the Opta predictor, it is almost neck and neck between England (40%) and France (39%) for who takes the top spot in Group D, while Les Bleues are third favourites overall to win the Euros (16%).France, who left captain Wendie Renard and all-time leading goalscorer Eugenie le Sommer out of their squad for the tournament, have played 26 and won 11 matches at previous tournaments - both figures are the most among nations that have never reached the final.Wales, meanwhile, are set to make their major-tournament debut this summer, but are the least likely team to make it through to the knockout stages, doing so in 9% of projections.
The only other nation predicted to win the tournament in more than 6% of simulations are eight-time winners Germany, who are tipped to top their group ahead of Sweden.
Will the Lionesses roar once more?
No reigning champion has ever lost their first game at the next tournament (W7, D5) while the Lionesses have also won each of their past 14 group-stage games at major tournaments - the World Cup and Euros - which is the longest ever such run by a European nation.So, we can expect a promising start by England - who are the only team at Euro 2025 that have won their most recent meeting against each of their group opponents - and that should quieten down some of the negative noise that has surrounded the squad pre-tournament.Wiegman has come under pressure to stabilise the England camp quickly after they lost three key players just a month out from the Euros.Mary Earps (retired), Millie Bright (unavailable for selection) and Fran Kirby (not selected, then retired) will play no part in Switzerland but were all part of an England starting XI that went unchanged from the first group stage game to the final in their 2022 success.That leaves Hannah Hampton as England's number one for the tournament, though in fairness the signs were there that that would be the case even without Earps' retirement.The Chelsea goalkeeper has won just 16 senior caps compared to Earps' 53, but started 10 of England's 16 games between the start of 2024 and the 32-year-old's retirement.Looking more specifically at just competitive fixtures, and across the period since the end of the 2023 World Cup, the stats do suggest Hampton is the correct choice to be the Lionesses' first-choice keeper.In that time, Hampton has a superior save rate (67.9% to 63%), has kept more clean sheets (five to two) and has conceded fewer goals than expected as per Opta's expected goals-on-target model (1.4). Earps on the other hand conceded more than the model expected (-1.1).The 24-year-old - who was a joint-winner of the 2024-25 Women's Super League Golden Glove award - is seemingly more trusted with her feet too, averaging 36 passes per 90 minutes compared to 29 per 90 for Earps. That being said, Earps did post a better passing accuracy across that period than Hampton (83.8% to 79.6%).
Squad drama before a major tournament isn't exactly a brand-new situation. Heading into Euro 2022, Wiegman left out long-term captain Steph Houghton from England's final squad, despite the defender having recovered from her Achilles injury.That didn't appear to upset things though, with the Lionesses' victory over Germany in the final moving them to 20 matches unbeaten in all competitions - a run that later stretched to 30 games. Wiegman's first defeat as England manager did not come until April 2023 in game 31 - against Australia.In their 32 games since the start of the 2023 World Cup, however, England have lost seven times and the underlying performance stats have also significantly worsened since that tournament.In attack England are scoring fewer goals - 4.3 down to 2.4, having fewer efforts on goal - 23.7 down to 14.6, and accumulating fewer expected goals (xG) per game - 3.4 down to 2.In defence the Lionesses are facing more shots - 5.6 to 9.3 - and allowing their opponents better-quality chances (xGA 0.5 to 1.0). As a result, they are conceding much more regularly per game (0.4 to 1.0).England have had possession of the ball in a similar fashion and amount throughout Wiegman's reign, but their off-the-ball numbers have also declined similarly to their defensive figures. They are recording significantly fewer high turnovers per game since the World Cup - 17 down to 13.1, and are also having fewer shots from such situations - 3 down to compared to 1.8.But when you are led by the only head coach to win the Women's Euros with two different nations and the only one to do so with a nation different to their home country, you should still be feared.
Players to watch
Speaking of people who should be feared, that brings us to England's in-form striker Alessia Russo, who scored England's opening goal against world champions Spain earlier this month, albeit in a 2-1 defeat.Russo shared the 2024-25 WSL Golden Boot with Manchester City's Khadija Shaw after scoring 12 goals, while she found the net more than any other Women's Super League player last term across all competitions, doing so on 20 occasions.Seven of those strikes came in Arsenal's successful Women's Champions League campaign, the most by an English player on record in a single edition of the competition since 2009-10.Meanwhile, since the start of qualification for Euro 2025 in April last year, Russo has scored five competitive goals for England, more than any other player.
Spain's Aitana Bonmati has been named the world's best player for the past two years, winning the women's Ballon d'Or, and she shows no signs of letting up. The 27-year-old was the leading chance creator from open play across Europe's big five leagues (67) and the Women's Champions League (30) in 2024-25, as well as ranking second in that regard across the two editions of the Women's Nations League (25).France's Clara Mateo goes into this tournament in fine form, having been directly involved in 25 goals in 20 league games in 2024-25 for Paris FC (18 goals, seven assists), the most of any player in the French top flight.