India set for above-normal monsoon; boost to agriculture likely
The all-India rainfall is expected to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4 per cent. This forecast raises hopes for a productive agricultural season and improved water availability, although it also calls for preparedness against weather-related risks.
Significantly, the monsoon forecast is quite promising for Central and South Peninsular India, regions crucial for agricultural productivity, where above-normal rainfall is highly likely.
Northwest India is expected to see normal rainfall.
At the same time, Northeast India may see below-normal rainfall, raising some concern for the region's ecosystems and agriculture.
The Monsoon Core Zone, which covers most of India's rainfed farming areas, is also expected to receive above-normal rainfall, providing a strong foundation for a successful Kharif crop season.
June 2025, the first month of the monsoon, is expected to witness above-normal rainfall for the country as a whole.
Most parts of India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, except for some areas in southern peninsular India, and parts of Northwest and Northeast India, where below-normal rainfall is anticipated. These early rains are vital for sowing operations and groundwater replenishment.
Temperature predictions for June offer mixed signals. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal in most parts of the country, but many parts of Northwest and Northeast India may experience above-normal maximum temperatures.
Minimum temperatures are anticipated to be above normal across most regions, except parts of Central India and the adjoining south Peninsula, which may record normal to below-normal minimums.
Encouragingly, the number of heatwave days is likely to be below normal in most of Northwest, Central, and East India, reducing the risk of extreme heat events in early summer.
Climatic factors contributing to this forecast include neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific Ocean and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions. However, models suggest a weak negative IOD may develop during the monsoon season. These conditions, while not extreme, will be monitored closely, as they can subtly influence monsoon behaviour.
A detailed breakdown of rainfall predictions by meteorological subdivisions shows that 34 out of 36 subdivisions are expected to receive above-normal rainfall. This includes major agricultural regions such as Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala.
Only Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya are likely to experience below-normal rainfall, while a few northeastern and hilly regions may see near-normal rainfall.
This optimistic monsoon forecast brings significant potential benefits. It is expected to boost crop output, ease pressure on irrigation systems, and support rural livelihoods.
However, authorities and communities are urged to remain alert to possible challenges such as flooding, waterlogging, and landslides in vulnerable regions. Public health systems may also need to prepare for waterborne diseases and sanitation issues, particularly in densely populated areas.
The IMD will continue to provide updated extended range forecasts and short to medium-range forecasts through its official website. These tools are essential for farmers, policymakers, and disaster management authorities to plan and respond effectively throughout the monsoon season.
With careful planning and timely response, the 2025 monsoon could become a strong driver of agricultural growth and water security, even as the country remains watchful of the risks that come with it.
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