Trimmed Fed rate cut wagers pull rupee, forward premiums off one-month peak
The rupee dipped to near 85.50 in early trading, coming off a one-month peak hit on Thursday, before paring losses to quote little changed at 85.33.
A dip in the dollar index, following a rise in the previous session, aided the rupee while Asian currencies were mostly rangebound.
Meanwhile, the 1-year dollar-rupee implied yield fell 5 basis points to 2.02%, with traders pointing out that near forward premiums could also witness downward pressure after the central bank did not raise the quantum of liquidity it aims to withdraw from the banking system.
This surprised many market participants, who had expected a rise in the quantum due to a heightened surplus.
The U.S. jobs data prompted traders to nearly wipe out wagers on a Fed rate cut in July, while the odds of a September cut dipped to below 75% from near 94% before the data.
"The market is now waiting for news on tariffs," a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said, referring to the looming July 9 deadline for countries to strike trade deals with the U.S.
About a 100 countries are likely to see a reciprocal tariff rate of 10%, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Television, predicting a "flurry" of trade deals announced before the deadline.
Taking cues from deals struck with other countries, there is scope for a reduction in the umbrella tariff rate on India to the baseline 10%, DBS said in a note.
U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened a 26% duty on Indian goods as part of his April 2 "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs, which were temporarily lowered to 10% to buy time for negotiations.
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