Roy Cooper entrance gives Democrats hope more Senate recruiting wins are on the way
Speculation surrounding a possible Cooper bid hit a fever pitch in recent weeks after Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced that he would not be running for reelection.
Cooper made the news official on Monday morning, becoming the biggest recruiting win of the 2026 cycle to date for either side and marking an opening salvo for a party that has struggled throughout the year to respond to President Trump.
'It's big,' said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who ran the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) during the 2022 and 2024 cycles. 'It's a huge win. We're confident he's going to win. He is without question the strongest Democrat that could possibly run in that seat.'
The two-term governor has held high favorable ratings in the Tar Heel State throughout his two terms and at the end of his tenure in Raleigh. He has also won all six of his statewide bids, which Democrats are quick to note.
The race is shaping up to be Cooper versus Michael Whatley, the chairman of the Republican National Committee and former North Carolina GOP chair. Trump endorsed Whatley after his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, decided against a run.
But Cooper's entrance also resonates outside North Carolina for Democrats, as they attempt to grab the steering wheel of a cycle that historically could move in their direction.
Polls are already indicating that Democrats have the upper hand on messaging over the GOP's 'big, beautiful bill' — which Tillis notably voted against shortly after he announced his retirement.
'It's a real winnable seat for us, and I think it's the first of many really good signs in this electorate,' said Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) about Cooper's entrance. 'Democrats are seeing a lot of really good candidates starting to step in and I think there's a lot of possibility.'
Cooper's announcement could also make mark on Democrats' recruitment efforts in other key states.
With North Carolina settled, attention now shifts to New England as Democrats try to nudge Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) toward challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).
Mills has given few outward signs that she is itching to run against Collins, who is expected to seek a sixth term in office. But Democrats widely believe Cooper's decision to take the plunge only increases the chances that Mills will do the same.
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) told The Hill that he is 'optimistic' that Mills will follow Cooper's lead.
'I'm hopeful,' said Kelly, who was once himself a top Democratic recruit.
Democrats are also quick to note that the two are friends, stemming from their parallel gubernatorial tenures.
'I think it shows that he believes that it's going to be a good Democratic year. I know that helps,' Peters said. 'Candidates who have a desire to serve in the Senate — if you're a Democrat, this next year would be the time to run.'
But while Democrats are riding a Cooper-induced high, ultimately winning back the Senate majority in 2026 remains a difficult row to hoe.
To flip the upper chamber, Democrats need to win back four seats next year — and that involves a lot of things breaking in their way.
Collins remains a major speed bump for any Democrats, especially after she handily dispatched with her general election opponent in 2020 despite trailing in polling throughout most of the cycle. But recent difficulties are raising hopes on the left that she may retire altogether.
That would easily be the biggest recruiting loss for the GOP, which already saw Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decide against a Senate bid in the Peach State earlier this year.
On top of the North Carolina and Maine contests, the minority party also needs to flip two additional seats, with Texas, Ohio and Iowa — three solidly red states — fronting that list.
Former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in 2024, is the leading Democratic candidate in the Lone Star State, where Democrats are praying that state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) can defeat Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in an already-nasty primary.
As for Ohio, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other Democratic leaders are lobbying hard for former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who was defeated in 2024 after three terms in the Senate, to run against Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who was appointed to replace Vice President Vance. Brown is debating whether to run for the upper chamber or seek the governor's mansion.
Finally, questions are swirling around whether Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) will call it quits after two terms. Iowa state Sen. Zach Wahls (D) and state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D) have both launched campaigns on the Democratic side.
Nabbing the requisite amount of seats is considered a significant reach at this point.
'I tell folks who've never worked on or run a campaign that there's just a constellation of factors that go into who wins and loses, and you're only in control … of a handful of those factors,' said John LaBombard, a former top aide to former Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and a Democratic strategist with ROKK Solutions. 'You kind of always need the stars to align to win a competitive race.
'Then you really need something more approaching a miracle to flip control of a chamber, and in our case … I think we might need something on par of two miracles to get us across the finish line,' LaBombard said. 'I am still pretty skeptical that that's possible.'
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