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Politico
16-07-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Susan Collins finally got her dream job. Fellow Republicans are making it a nightmare.
Democrats have a steep road back to the majority, needing to flip an unlikely four seats while also holding onto their own swing seats in Georgia and Michigan. But they view Maine as a top pick-up opportunity, and they would unquestionably have an easier time without Collins on the ballot, potentially allowing them to pour more resources into tougher races. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who recently announced he would retire from his own swing seat, said Collins has a 'thankless job' as chair of the Appropriations Committee but also noted the obvious political reality: Without her, Republicans would lose the seat. 'The one thing I am certain of is if Susan Collins is not running for re-election, then that state is even more at risk than North Carolina,' he said. Maine Democrats are already mobilizing to run against Collins, linking her to the 'big, beautiful bill' by calling her the 'deciding vote' in the legislation coming up for debate on the Senate floor, even though she ultimately voted against it on final passage. (The vote to start debate was 51-49, so even if Collins had voted no, Vice President JD Vance would have broken the tie.) 'At the end of the day, Donald Trump and Washington Republicans know Susan Collins will have their back,' Tommy Garcia, a Maine Democratic Party spokesperson, said in a statement. They have taken heart from recent polling showing deteriorating home-state support for Collins, including a Morning Consult survey from April that found 51 percent of Maine voters disapproving of her performance. Separately, 71 percent of respondents to a University of New Hampshire April poll in Maine said that Collins did not deserve to be re-elected, including a majority of Republican respondents. But Collins, the only Senate Republican from a state won by Kamala Harris, is helped by an obvious rule of political life: You can't beat somebody with nobody, and so far Democrats have struggled to recruit a big name to challenge her. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other party leaders are still making overtures to Gov. Janet Mills, who has largely left the field frozen while the party awaits her final decision. There's also little expectation Collins would flinch from the political challenge. Her Senate career was all but written off by many political observers in 2020, when polls showed her constantly trailing Democratic rival Sara Gideon. She went on to win by roughly 9 points. Many in the GOP share Tillis' view that Collins is about the only Republican who can win a Senate seat in Maine, and she has gotten a wide berth to break with her party because of that. Trump hasn't lashed out at Collins for opposing the megabill — unlike with Tillis and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul.
Yahoo
14-07-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Tillis retirement puts North Carolina Senate seat up for grabs
Sen. Thom Tillis's (R-N.C.) decision to not seek reelection to another term has scrambled the field for what will be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country next year. The North Carolina Senate race was already going to be one of the most-discussed contests of the 2026 midterms as one of the two main targets for Democrats hoping to at least narrow the Republican majority in the body. But with Tillis out, the race appears set to become even more hotly contested as big names on both sides of the aisle are floated as potential candidates, including Lara Trump and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D). 'I think it's changed the calculus tremendously because … Tillis was going to be not impossible but difficult to beat,' said North Carolina Democratic strategist Doug Wilson. Tillis had previously demonstrated his electoral strength in challenging races in a battleground state, winning his Senate elections in 2014 and 2020 by less than 2 points. Democrats were hopeful in particular that they had an opportunity to oust Tillis in 2020, as former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) led the incumbent in the polls throughout most of the race. But his campaign was derailed late by reports that Cunningham was having an affair, and Tillis pulled off a win as President Trump also narrowly carried the state in the presidential race. Democrats previously acknowledged the challenge they would face in defeating Tillis for a third term but expressed hope, especially if the popular former two-term Gov. Cooper enters the race. Cooper has been considering a bid, but the North Carolina-based NBC affiliate WRAL reported that he won't decide for at least a few more weeks. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), who served one term in the House before he decided against seeking reelection after redistricting made his district substantially more conservative, has already launched his candidacy for Senate. The 2026 Senate map doesn't have many obvious pickup opportunities for Democrats despite history suggesting that political headwinds should favor them with Republican control of the White House and Congress. Maine will be a top target for the party, with Sen. Susan Collins being the only incumbent Senate Republican up for election next year in a state that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris. Although success in North Carolina has eluded them in recent federal elections, Democrats are hoping they can finally get over the hurdle next year. The party realistically needs to win both states to even think about winning the Senate next year, along with wins in other states that are more of a reach, like Texas, all while defending its current seats. Democrats and Republicans both expressed optimism about their chances in the Tar Heel State with the news of Tillis's retirement. 'President Trump has won North Carolina three times, and the state's been represented by two Republican Senators for over a decade,' said Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the chair of Senate Republicans' campaign arm, in a statement. 'That streak will continue in 2026 when North Carolinians elect a conservative leader committed to advancing an agenda of opportunity, prosperity, and security.' Maeve Coyle, a spokesperson for Senate Democrats' campaign arm, called Tillis's decision 'another blow to Republicans' chances as they face midterm backlash that puts their majority at risk.' She vowed that Democrats would flip the seat. In the aftermath of Tillis's announcement, several North Carolina Republicans have been floated as possible candidates for the GOP nod. Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law and the former co-chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC), may be the most notable name. A source confirmed to The Hill earlier Monday that she is considering a run. Given her ties to President Trump and his status as the most influential figure in the GOP, she would likely be the clear favorite for the Republican nomination if she enters. Republican strategist Doug Heye, who has worked on multiple races in North Carolina, said Lara Trump will have the 'right of first refusal.' RNC Chair Michael Whatley, who previously led the North Carolina GOP, may have a strong case that it should be him if Trump declines. 'He can say, 'I've worked at the Senate. I know how it works, and by the way, I've won North Carolina for Trump twice,'' Heye said. A GOP operative who's worked in North Carolina Senate races said the expectation would be that only one of them would enter the race, but not both. Trump and Whatley worked together at the RNC. The operative said many are excited at the possibility of having a Trump on the ballot but added that Whatley is also a strong candidate who has shown an ability to raise the resources necessary in an expensive state. Other names under serious consideration include GOP Reps. Richard Hudson, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, and Pat Harrigan. President Trump threatened to intervene in the primary even before Tillis's public announcement, saying he would interview possible candidates. The Hill reported earlier Monday that this came after Tillis texted Trump telling him to think about his replacement in the Senate. The operative argued that Tillis didn't have the coalition to win in November, given growing frustration from Republicans and moderates. 'It was definitely not an easier path than a generic candidate we would have or will have,' the operative said. 'Now who that candidate is [is] going to have a big part in where the race goes.' Members of both parties acknowledged the race appears fully up for grabs and said they expect millions of dollars to pour into the state. More than $260 million was spent throughout Tillis's 2020 cycle, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Wilson said Tillis demonstrated his independence with votes on legislation like former President Biden's gun control law following the 2022 Uvalde, Texas, shooting, and the CHIPS and Science Act. The state party censured him over certain stances that strayed from the party platform. Wilson said whichever candidate is the Republican nominee will be representing a party that has become more 'Trumpified,' helping Democrats make it a referendum on the president. 'Tillis was going to be hard to beat, but with that said, now it's an open game,' he said. In one positive sign for Democrats, the election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the race from 'lean Republican' to 'toss up' after Tillis's announcement. But Heye noted much remains uncertain, with many untested candidates looking at a run. He argued Cooper hasn't before faced as tough a race as he would if he runs, while Republicans like Lara Trump and Whatley haven't faced voters before. 'We call them first-time candidates for a reason,' he said about Trump and Whatley. 'We know what they are on paper. We never know how a first-time candidate is until they start running.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
14-07-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Republicans eagerly await Lara Trump's decision on North Carolina Senate seat
Republicans are eager to see Lara Trump enter the North Carolina Senate race, with many seeing her as their best opportunity to keep the seat after Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced he wouldn't seek reelection. The daughter-in-law of President Trump and a former Republican National Committee (RNC) co-chair, Lara Trump has quickly become an early favorite for the GOP nomination if she chooses to run. A source close to the president said she's considering a bid; it would clear the Republican field if she chooses to go forward. While she's turned down possible Senate bids in the past, she would bring significant name recognition and instant backing from the top levels of the GOP. 'She has, in my opinion, earned the right of first refusal if she wants to do it,' said North Carolina Republican strategist Jonathan Felts. 'And more importantly, regardless of what I think about it, the most powerful and the most popular Republican on the planet, he thinks so, too.' A potential Senate run for Lara Trump, who is married to the president's son Eric, has been teased for years. She was rumored as a possible candidate to succeed former Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) in the state's 2022 Senate race, but she decided against it, citing the difficulty of running with young children. She endorsed then-Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in the race; he went on to win. 'I am saying no for now, not no forever,' she said at the time about her own possible candidacy. She was also rumored last year to be an option for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to fill the Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. She removed her name from consideration despite 'encouragement from so many.' But speculation has been building for months that Trump would finally take the plunge for Tillis's seat in 2026, even before Tillis announced he wouldn't seek another term. A November survey from a Republican pollster found her leading Tillis in a hypothetical primary match-up by an overwhelming margin. With Tillis out, Trump has commanded the attention in the race for the past few weeks. The president mentioned Lara Trump when asked by reporters about who could replace Tillis, saying she's 'somebody that would really be great.' He acknowledged that she and Eric live in Florida, but he emphasized her ties to the Tar Heel State. 'She's a great person, Lara Trump. I mean, that would always be my first choice, but she doesn't live there now,' President Trump said. 'But she's there all the time, her parents are there. You know, she really knows North Carolina well.' And one of the other top names being floated, RNC Chair Michael Whatley, signaled he would defer to her if she wants to run and would expect the party to do so as well. 'What I will say is this: If Lara Trump is going to be interested, then she is certainly going to have the entire Republican universe — myself included — that are going to coalesce behind her,' he told the Washington Examiner in an interview. First-term Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.), another possible candidate, also said he wouldn't run if Trump does. A GOP operative who's worked on North Carolina Senate races described Trump's choice as 'personal' and a 'family decision.' But Republicans said a Trump candidacy would likely be their best-case scenario, particularly as former Gov. Roy Cooper mulls a bid for the seat on the Democratic side. Felts said having Trump on the ballot could help increase turnout for Republicans, noting her father-in-law's demonstrated prowess at encouraging voters who often don't participate to come to the polls. He said Republicans will have to maximize turnout in small rural areas to overcome Democratic strengths in other parts of the state. Felts said no candidate could reach the level of support the president would have, but he would give a boost. 'He's just a uniquely popular figure, but having a Trump on the ballot would be helpful,' he said. Still, Lara Trump could have some potential vulnerabilities if she runs. Despite playing an active role in campaigning for her father-in-law and other candidates previously, she has never run for office herself. North Carolina Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson said her candidacy would solve a problem Republicans had with Tillis, who was increasingly unpopular with the Republican base. But she could turn off the critical 1 percent to 3 percent of voters who swing in the middle. 'I think Thom Tillis had a better shot at those voters than Lara Trump does because he did not come across to those voters as a partisan warrior,' Jackson said. 'And frankly, I think the last thing voters are looking for is a partisan warrior right now, and I say that as either a Democrat or Republican nominee.' 'What is clear is with Thom Tillis being run out of the race by [President] Trump is that they're going to get a partisan warrior,' he added. Felts said he's not concerned about Lara Trump being untested as a candidate because she showed her strength while campaigning for others. He said she 'had audiences eating out of her hand' speaking at the state GOP convention in 2021, demonstrating her grassroots appeal. 'I know she's told Ted, she's all in for Ted,' Felts recalled thinking at the time. 'If she were to announce right now [she's running], I mean, the place would just go insane.' One other attack she could face is a perceived lack of loyalty to North Carolina. Despite being born and raised there, she and her family live in Florida. Accusations of carpetbagging have been a common attack in key Senate races in recent years. But Republicans emphasized that she still has deep ties to the state and knows it well. One North Carolina Republican insider pointed to former Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R), who was originally from the state but hadn't lived there for years before her comfortable electoral victory to the Senate in 2002. 'She's very well known,' he said. 'She has taken time with the grassroots, speaking [at] a bunch of Lincoln-Reagan dinners across the state over the years, and so she's definitely a known commodity and considered North Carolinian by the key folks in this state.' The insider said she would start out with an advantage in name identification that the other possible GOP candidates couldn't match and get the voters who only vote every four years. 'It's just a question of, are there voters in the middle, unaffiliated voters' who preferred President Trump to former Vice President Kamala Harris but aren't fully invested in Trump himself, he added. 'I don't know. That would be tested for sure,' he said. 'I do think that that's offset by all of the enthusiastic Trump voters that would turn out in a midterm that might not otherwise.' Jackson stressed that the result in the battleground state will likely be close regardless of the candidates, though analysts agree candidate quality will matter considerably. 'North Carolina is a very big state. It's big. It's hard to win. I don't care which side of the aisle you're on,' he said. 'You're going to have a close race, and it's going to be a tough race.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
13-07-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Republicans eagerly await Lara Trump's decision on North Carolina Senate seat
Republicans are eager to see Lara Trump enter the North Carolina Senate race, with many seeing her as their best opportunity to keep the seat after Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced he wouldn't seek reelection. The daughter-in-law of President Trump and a former Republican National Committee (RNC) co-chair, Lara Trump has quickly become an early favorite for the GOP nomination if she chooses to run. A source close to the president said she's considering a bid; it would clear the Republican field if she chooses to go forward. While she's turned down possible Senate bids in the past, she would bring significant name recognition and instant backing from the top levels of the GOP. 'She has, in my opinion, earned the right of first refusal if she wants to do it,' said North Carolina Republican strategist Jonathan Felts. 'And more importantly, regardless of what I think about it, the most powerful and the most popular Republican on the planet, he thinks so, too.' A potential Senate run for Lara Trump, who is married to the president's son Eric, has been teased for years. She was rumored as a possible candidate to succeed former Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) in the state's 2022 Senate race, but she decided against it, citing the difficulty of running with young children. She endorsed then-Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in the race; he went on to win. 'I am saying no for now, not no forever,' she said at the time about her own possible candidacy. She was also rumored last year to be an option for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to fill the Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. She removed her name from consideration despite 'encouragement from so many.' But speculation has been building for months that Trump would finally take the plunge for Tillis's seat in 2026, even before Tillis announced he wouldn't seek another term. A November survey from a Republican pollster found her leading Tillis in a hypothetical primary match-up by an overwhelming margin. With Tillis out, Trump has commanded the attention in the race for the past few weeks. The president mentioned Lara Trump when asked by reporters about who could replace Tillis, saying she's 'somebody that would really be great.' He acknowledged that she and Eric live in Florida, but he emphasized her ties to the Tar Heel State. 'She's a great person, Lara Trump. I mean, that would always be my first choice, but she doesn't live there now,' President Trump said. 'But she's there all the time, her parents are there. You know, she really knows North Carolina well.' And one of the other top names being floated, RNC Chair Michael Whatley, signaled he would defer to her if she wants to run and would expect the party to do so as well. 'What I will say is this: If Lara Trump is going to be interested, then she is certainly going to have the entire Republican universe — myself included — that are going to coalesce behind her,' he told the Washington Examiner in an interview. First-term Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.), another possible candidate, also said he wouldn't run if Trump does. A GOP operative who's worked on North Carolina Senate races described Trump's choice as 'personal' and a 'family decision.' But Republicans said a Trump candidacy would likely be their best-case scenario, particularly as former Gov. Roy Cooper mulls a bid for the seat on the Democratic side. Felts said having Trump on the ballot could help increase turnout for Republicans, noting her father-in-law's demonstrated prowess at encouraging voters who often don't participate to come to the polls. He said Republicans will have to maximize turnout in small rural areas to overcome Democratic strengths in other parts of the state. Felts said no candidate could reach the level of support the president would have, but he would give a boost. 'He's just a uniquely popular figure, but having a Trump on the ballot would be helpful,' he said. Still, Lara Trump could have some potential vulnerabilities if she runs. Despite playing an active role in campaigning for her father-in-law and other candidates previously, she has never run for office herself. North Carolina Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson said her candidacy would solve a problem Republicans had with Tillis, who was increasingly unpopular with the Republican base. But she could turn off the critical 1 percent to 3 percent of voters who swing in the middle. 'I think Thom Tillis had a better shot at those voters than Lara Trump does because he did not come across to those voters as a partisan warrior,' Jackson said. 'And frankly, I think the last thing voters are looking for is a partisan warrior right now, and I say that as either a Democrat or Republican nominee.' 'What is clear is with Thom Tillis being run out of the race by [President] Trump is that they're going to get a partisan warrior,' he added. Felts said he's not concerned about Lara Trump being untested as a candidate because she showed her strength while campaigning for others. He said she 'had audiences eating out of her hand' speaking at the state GOP convention in 2021, demonstrating her grassroots appeal. 'I know she's told Ted, she's all in for Ted,' Felts recalled thinking at the time. 'If she were to announce right now [she's running], I mean, the place would just go insane.' One other attack she could face is a perceived lack of loyalty to North Carolina. Despite being born and raised there, she and her family live in Florida. Accusations of carpetbagging have been a common attack in key Senate races in recent years. But Republicans emphasized that she still has deep ties to the state and knows it well. One North Carolina Republican insider pointed to former Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R), who was originally from the state but hadn't lived there for years before her comfortable electoral victory to the Senate in 2002. 'She's very well known,' he said. 'She has taken time with the grassroots, speaking [at] a bunch of Lincoln-Reagan dinners across the state over the years, and so she's definitely a known commodity and considered North Carolinian by the key folks in this state.' The insider said she would start out with an advantage in name identification that the other possible GOP candidates couldn't match and get the voters who only vote every four years. 'It's just a question of, are there voters in the middle, unaffiliated voters' who preferred President Trump to former Vice President Kamala Harris but aren't fully invested in Trump himself, he added. 'I don't know. That would be tested for sure,' he said. 'I do think that that's offset by all of the enthusiastic Trump voters that would turn out in a midterm that might not otherwise.' Jackson stressed that the result in the battleground state will likely be close regardless of the candidates, though analysts agree candidate quality will matter considerably. 'North Carolina is a very big state. It's big. It's hard to win. I don't care which side of the aisle you're on,' he said. 'You're going to have a close race, and it's going to be a tough race.'
Yahoo
12-07-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Tillis suggests he wouldn't vote in favor of Hegseth confirmation now
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) suggested Wednesday that he would not vote in favor of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's confirmation at this time. During an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper, Tillis said that when it came to Hegseth's confirmation vote, he 'had already informed my conference that I was going to defer to the Senate Armed Services [Committee] vote.' 'If he got a unanimous vote out of Senate Armed Services, then I was going to defer to them,' Tillis said. However, while Tillis added later that he didn't 'regret the decision I made back then based on the facts as I knew them' he said that 'today, I am beginning to wonder if maybe Armed Services was a little bit generous with respect to their assessment of his capabilities as a manager of the world's largest, most complex and arguably, consequential organization.' 'So, you don't regret it, but if you had to do it again today, you probably wouldn't vote yes?' Tapper replied. 'I think based on the information I have today,' Tillis said. 'If all I had was the information on the day of the vote, I'd certainly vote for him again.' In the same interview, Tillis also slammed Trump advisers, calling them amateurs. 'I don't have a problem [with] President Trump. I got a — I got a problem with some of the people I consider to be amateurs advising him,' Tillis said. 'I'm going to make it very clear to those guys. When you act like the president, when I — when he's out of the room, you don't impress me. And they'll hear more of that in the coming months,' he added later. Republican senators have not been pleased about how Trump treated Tillis recently, with the president blasting the North Carolina Republican last week on social media after Tillis said he would not vote for the GOP megabill. Tillis, who announced he would not seek reelection shortly after coming out against the bill, is viewed highly among colleagues as a team player with a focus on results, and numerous Republicans believed he was their best chance at keeping the seat in their column next year. 'We wish him well in his upcoming retirement,' Pentagon press secretary Kingsley Wilson said of Tillis in an emailed response to The Hill. The Hill has also reached out to the White House for comment. Updated July 10 at 10:43 a.m. EDT Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
