Hot, dry summer forecast for Manitoba makes for 'bleak' outlook for wildfire situation

CBC

02-06-2025

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The news is good for those who like sunscreen, but not so much for those hoping for some reprieve from wildfires in Manitoba.
"It looks warm, warm, warm. I mean, there will be moments where it'll be cool and it'll be refreshing, but the general pattern … right through to Labour Day, looks warmer than normal," Environment Canada climatologist Dave Phillips said about the summer forecast for Manitoba.
"And the precipitation side is showing normal to below normal — not a good combination. When it's warmer than normal, you need more precipitation, not less."
More than 17,000 people are being, or have been, evacuated from northern, western and eastern regions of the province due to an extremely active wildfire season.
As of Sunday (the most recent update available), there were 25 active wildfires in Manitoba. A total of 106 have already been recorded, above the province's 20-year annual average of 84 at this time of year.
It's a situation Manitoba has never seen before, with large-scale wildfires burning in every region of the province at the same time, Premier Wab Kinew said on Friday, following that up with "pray for rain."
Those prayers might need to be a lot stronger.
"The situation is, it looks bleak," Phillips said. "So there's going to be a lot of issues going forward."
While the temperature outlook is pretty reliable, the rain could still be a wild card, he said.
"[It's] hard to get it right today, let alone over over a month. I mean, you could have rain in your front yard but not your backyard," Phillips said.
"The only strand of good news is that June, on the Prairies, is the wettest month of the year. June will often have maybe almost 60 per cent more precipitation than May, on average."
One thing that can't be predicted in any season-long forecast is the chance for big soakers, which could really make a big impact in the fire zones and other parched areas.
"They may happen," Phillips said, "but there's nothing on the radar horizon right now to suggest that would be the case."
In the Flin Flon region, where a wildfire is at the edge of the evacuated city, there's been 18 consecutive days without a drop of precipitation, he said.
April and May combined for maybe one-quarter of the normal amount of rain for that time of year.
"It's just been too hot, too dry for too long. And of course, we see the consequences of that," Phillips said.
Brandon and Winnipeg both saw rain Monday and the system could stretch as far north as Gimli, or even Dauphin, but nothing — not a drop — is expected until possibly the weekend in Flin Flon.
"I mean, my gosh, we've had almost too much summer already," Phillips said, highlighting the heat that Winnipeg has experienced.
"I've said to other people, I don't think Winnipeg will see a warmer temperature this summer than what they had in the early part of the second week of May."
Winnipeggers sweltered in temperatures that hit 30 C or higher on six different days in May. On average, there's just one.
It peaked with 35.6 C on May 12 and 36.8 C the following day.
"I mean, that was just extraordinary," Phillips said.