Europe nears a flashpoint as US-Russia ties fray
Trump-Putin disconnect, Russian strikes bode ill for Ukraine
James Davis analyzes a pivotal escalation in the Ukraine conflict marked by a faltering Trump-Putin dialogue and Russia's largest aerial assault of the war. Kremlin sources say Russian President Vladimir Putin has abandoned hopes of improved US ties.
Germany's fiscal debate reveals deeper economic malaise
Diego Faßnacht analyzes how Germany's 2025 budget debate has exposed a deeper crisis of economic direction and political fragmentation. In place of structural reforms, Germany is offering a vast spending plan without a clear growth strategy.
Japanese manufacturers continue to expand in China
Scott Foster observes that despite rising geopolitical tensions and US-led pressure to decouple from China, Japanese businesses are deepening their presence in the Chinese market, betting on Beijing's push for domestic consumption to drive demand.
US tariffs blowback in Asia as power trumps principle
Scott Foster analyzes the sweeping impact of President Donald Trump's newly announced tariffs on Asia, which disproportionately target poorer states, ASEAN and key US allies like Japan and South Korea, measures that are straining US credibility across the region.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
HKFP
22 minutes ago
- HKFP
China exports beat forecasts in June following US tariff truce
China's exports rose more than expected in June, official data showed Monday, after Washington and Beijing agreed on a tentative deal to lower swingeing tariffs on each other. Data from the General Administration of Customs said exports climbed 5.8 percent year-on-year, topping the five percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Imports rose 1.1 percent, topping the 0.3 percent gain predicted and marking the first growth this year. China's exports reached record highs in 2024 — a lifeline to its slowing economy as pressures elsewhere mounted. Beijing's efforts to sustain growth have been hit by a bruising trade war with the United States, driven by President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, though the two de-escalated their spat with a framework for a deal at talks in London last month. Monday's customs figures showed Chinese exports to the United States surged 32.4 percent in June, having fallen the month before, according to an AFP calculation based on official data. 'Growth in export values rebounded somewhat last month, helped by the US-China trade truce,' Zichuan Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said. 'But tariffs are likely to remain high and Chinese manufacturers face growing constraints on their ability to rapidly expand global market share by slashing prices,' Huang said. 'We therefore expect export growth to slow over the coming quarters, weighing on economic growth,' she added. Customs official Wang Lingjun told a news conference on Monday that Beijing hoped 'the US will continue to work together with China towards the same direction', state broadcaster CCTV reported. The tariff truce was 'hard won', Wang said. 'There is no way out through blackmail and coercion. Dialogue and cooperation are the right path,' he added. Stuttering growth Analysts say China's economy is expected to have expanded more than five percent in the second quarter thanks to its strong exports. Official figures are due to be released on Tuesday. But they also warn Trump's trade war could cause a sharp slowdown in the final six months of the year. Beijing is targeting an overall expansion of around five percent this year — the same as last year but a figure considered ambitious by many experts. First-quarter growth came in at 5.4 percent, beating forecasts and putting the economy on a positive trajectory. Beijing has struggled to sustain growth since the pandemic as it battles a prolonged debt crisis in the property sector, chronically low consumption and high youth unemployment. Data released last week showed that consumer prices edged up in June, barely snapping a four-month deflationary dip, but factory gate prices dropped at their fastest clip in nearly two years. Many economists argue that China needs to shift towards a growth model propelled more by domestic consumption than the traditional key drivers of infrastructure investment, manufacturing and exports. Beijing has introduced a slew of measures since last year in a bid to boost spending, including a consumer goods trade-in subsidy scheme that briefly lifted retail activity.
AllAfrica
2 hours ago
- AllAfrica
Tokyo, Manila moves arouse Chinese concerns about Asian mini NATO
Manila's adoption of Japan's 'one theater concept' has further escalated tensions with China. Proposed in March this year, the concept breaks from Tokyo's traditional security outlook and views the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula as a 'single theater.' Analysts in Chinese news media were quick to read it as a formation of a Washington-led 'Mini NATO in the Asia-Pacific' aimed at 'containing China.' A commentary noted how President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s attempts at a thaw with Beijing in early 2025 were derailed within a week when the US promised $50 million in military aid that 'thoroughly exposed' Marcos's 'profiteering tendency.' Another analysis related the situation to the Reciprocal Access Agreement signed between Manila and Tokyo in July last year. Many defined the concept as an 'absurd' one that 'deliberately confuses' distinct geographical regions, solely to build a case for foreign intervention. The continued stationing of US military's advanced missile systems, Typhon and NMESIS, in Manila is similarly viewed as a way of targeting China. While Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr.'s moves are broadly described as 'unacceptable,' some in China believe he is still 'pragmatic' in finding common strategic ground with Japan when compared with Lithuania, which expressed concerns over the 'axis' formed by 'China, Russia and North Korea' that must be opposed through an 'alliance of democracies.' Others describe the concept as Japan's attempts to 'blur' the boundaries of the 'hot spots' by linking the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea to its 'surrounding areas,' hence using it as an 'excuse' to break free from restrictions placed by its peace constitution. Highlighting Manila's intentions of 'controlling the entire Bashi Channel,' some Chinese analysts have pointed to several hindrances in this 'plan' – particularly differing defense interests of the members of the informal SQUAD alliance (QUAD, with an S for 'security' added) and Trump's insistence that allies expand their military expenditures, which many, including Tokyo and Manila, are unable to do. Many also flagged Washington's 'unreliability' to its allies, particularly the imposition of tariffs that pushed Tokyo and Seoul towards Beijing. Describing Manila as a 'pawn' for 'big brothers,' a commentary noted that Washington's 'abandonment and looting' of war-torn Ukraine serve as a lesson for the Philippines. Some link the situation to the internal political turmoil brewing in Manila. Ruptures between the 'pro-US' Marcos family and the 'pro-China' Duterte family, particularly the latter's better performance in the mid-term elections and their possibility of sweeping off the former in the 2028 general elections, are emphasized. Chinese analysts believe that the concept will nevertheless receive little support from ASEAN nations or the Pacific Islands which have refrained from choosing sides between Beijing and Washington. Faultlines do exist. Many in Japan worry that an unclear delimitation of the theater carries the threat of embroiling Tokyo in conflicts of regional allies. South Korea, too, is unhappy, particularly with the concept seen as 'unnecessarily stoking conflict with China.' Differing security perceptions are similarly highlighted by Teodoro's statement that the Korean Peninsula will not form a part of Manila's adaptation. While most Chinese analysts favor dialogue, their confidence in the PLA's ability to launch a crushing defeat on the Philippines remains unabashed. The question, however, remains: Is China ready to take up arms? Though it cannot be denied that the concept's focus on Taiwan presents a fragile security situation given the Chinese maritime strategy's core being anti-access/area denial in the 'first island chain,' the few episodes of intense confrontation in the past years have not escalated into a war – yet. The PLA Southern Theater Command's response included a joint sea and air patrol in the 'second island command' with its advanced H-6K bombers equipped with Eagle Strike-12 anti-ship missiles, capable of launching an attack on targets as far as 4000 km from the Chinese mainland. While an intense move, it broadly falls in line with Beijing's previous response to Manila's unilateral and bilateral military exercises with Washington in January. Chinese commentators have also highlighted how NATO's short and narrowly-focused The Hague Summit Declaration's silence on China points to Trump 'changing his mind' on a conflict with Beijing. But mounting tensions are hard to overlook. China's latest white paper on national security noted 'gross interference' in the South China Sea issue from external powers. The paper clearly underscores a growing pessimism as it notes how 'Western anti-China forces' are 'leaving no stones unturned' to 'encircle, suppress and contain' Beijing. China's sanctions against former Senator Francis Tolentino for his 'malicious remarks and moves' are similarly seen as a strong move. This is the first time a senior official has been sanctioned since bilateral relations deteriorated in 2023, further elevating tensions as Manila summoned the Chinese ambassador to express its concerns. Despite the intensity, it must be noted that Beijing refrained from sanctioning Tolentino while he was in office, reflecting a cautious approach. Manila too has been prudent in not pushing the boundary too far. Hence, while the 38-year travel ban on Filipino officials traveling to Taiwan was lifted in April, restrictions remain on visits by the president and vice president and the foreign and defense secretaries. Despite its 2023 National Security Policy describing cross-strait relations as a 'major concern,' the Philippines has clarified it has no intentions of ever participating if a conflict erupts over Taiwan. The clarification came as part of a statement at a press conference for the Balikatan annual military exercises in April 2025, the largest between Manila and Washington. Manila favored reaching a provisional understanding with Beijing over invoking its Mutual Defense Treaty with Washington as tensions escalated in June last year. The situation, for now, can best be understood as a game of brinkmanship. Moreover, despite China's growing naval strength, its warships remain untested in warfare. While this acts as a deterrent to Beijing, China's advanced defense technologies and their ability to cause irreparable losses deter Washington and Manila. Nevertheless, a lack of a consistent high level military-to-military communication between both Beijing and Washington, and Beijing and Manila, as well as the complete absence of a reliable crisis management mechanism do exacerbate uncertainties. While all eyes remain fixed on military muscle flexing, the South China Sea faces a critical challenge. Sea levels have risen by 3.75mm per year since 1993, and microplastic pollution has reached an alarming level. While a war seems unlikely, peace remains elusive. Such pressing concerns urgently demand cooperation on all sides. Cherry Hitkari is a doctoral fellow with the Institute of Chinese Studies Delhi and the Harvard-Yenching Institute, currently pursuing a PhD in Chinese Studies at University of Delhi.
RTHK
4 hours ago
- RTHK
'Onshore bonds held by global investors could triple'
'Onshore bonds held by global investors could triple' The Monetary Authority recently announced enhancements to the offshore RMB bond repurchase business to facilitate participation of northbound Bond Connect investors. File photo: RTHK Philippe Dirckx speaking to Chloe Feng An independent regional trade group anticipated holdings of onshore bonds by overseas investors to more than triple to 10 percent in the coming years, after Beijing further expanded the Bond Connect scheme to encourage capital flow. Under the expansion, four types of mainland-based financial institutions – brokerages, insurers, mutual funds, and wealth managers – that were previously excluded will be allowed to utilise the southbound leg of the trading link to access global bonds via Hong Kong. Philippe Dirckx, managing director and head of fixed income at the Asia Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (ASIFMA), said this could broaden the profiles of mainland investors, many of whom were seeking to diversify their assets. "If you're looking at the new institutions that have been granted access, especially the mutual funds and wealth management, insurance companies, these are institutions that are looking for large sets of investment,' he told RTHK. "They're looking at other links [that they do not] have on shore, [and] all the investment opportunities that they need to fulfil their end-clients' desire, catching [up] expectation in terms of yields or the profile of diversification." He expected demand for both yuan-denominated "dim sum" bonds, as well as US-dollar-denominated bonds issued in the SAR to be sought after by these investors. The scheme's continuous tweaks, Dirckx noted, could also pave the way for global investors to boost their onshore bond holdings, which currently stood at three percent. "The three percent is certainly way too low for I think the trend will definitely be for international investors to hold way more of Chinese-assets than they currently do. My view is that it could go up to 10 percent if you compare to the peers," he said. "I think we are a at an interesting point now when we see (the) US dollar weakening against most of the currencies across the globe, and you've seen investors diversifying the investment outside of the US. "So they there are many factors that could drive the attractiveness of Chinese assets and Chinese government bonds for international investors. "And by doing so, it will internationalise the renminbi," Dirckx added, although he cautioned many factors could affect progress, including interest rate differentials and geopolitics.
