Report: The conservatives expected to cave on Trump's megabill

Daily Mail​

12 hours ago

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As Congress barrels towards the self-imposed July 4th deadline to pass President Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill,' some Republicans are vowing a vote against it, potentially tanking the seismic signature legislation of the White House. Insiders on Capitol Hill think they're bluffing - and see most climbing aboard at the last possible moment. 'Most of these guys will eventually cave,' one House GOP aide told the Daily Mail. 'It's not about principles anymore, it's just thirsty members knowing how to get as much attention as possible.'
A handful of Republicans in Congress have taken some issue with the current format of Trump's marquee policy agenda, called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB). Their bicameral concerns vary from the overregulation of AI , Medicaid cuts, rural hospital funding and deficit reduction. Republican Representatives Chip Roy, Andy Harris, Victoria Spartz and more were named by Capitol Hill sources as those most likely to flip and back the bill despite their noisy opposition. Harris and Roy, for example, threatened to hold up the OBBB in the House before ultimately voting for it in late May.
This week, the Trump administration has ramped up the pressure, deploying a slew of social media posts by the president on top of visits from Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Capitol Hill. Once the Senate figures out its version and Trump decides to personally apply more pressure, Capitol Hill aides believe the hardheaded opposition will eventually melt away like a popsicle on a summer city sidewalk. 'The biggest bluffers are the Medicaid moderates,' a senior House GOP aide told the Daily Mail, adding that Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska is one of the Republicans most upset by Medicaid reforms.
A former Senate GOP aide shared that most lawmakers will choose to avoid the president's wrath when the rubber meets the road. 'Of course most of the holdouts will eventually back President Trump and vote for the bill,' the former aide told the Daily Mail. 'Even though their constituents probably agree with a lot of their objections —they will rightly calculate that the political risk of drawing President Trump's ire or failing to stop huge tax hikes would far outweigh the reward of a protest vote.' The former staffer added: 'President Trump's Big Beautiful Bill will pass, warts and all.'
The House passed its version of the OBBB in late May by just a single vote. Multiple Republicans defected at the time and voted against the over 1,000-page bill because it was not conservative enough. According to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the House-passed OBBB framework carries an eye-watering price tag of $2.4 - $2.77 trillion. Though that price is likely to change once the Senate finishes its version of the bill. Reps. Thomas Massie and Warren Davidson were the lone GOPers to vote 'no' on the bill over concerns on how the package will impact the deficit.
The bill is now with the Senate, and the tweaks made by GOP lawmakers in the upper chamber have made some House members fume. In addition, the Senate Parliamentarian struck down key Republican provisions in the reconciliation bill, declaring they cannot remain in the bill due to Senate rules. One of those provisions slashed is meant to prevent illegal immigrants from collecting Medicaid - a move that has enraged many House lawmakers, and even prompted many to call for the parliamentarian's removal from her post. There are multiple internal GOP factions currently vying for different additions and cuts to the mega-bill.
Many Republican moderates have expressed distaste with deep Medicaid cuts, members of the House Freedom Caucus - a conservative cohort of the lower chamber - are upset with the spending levels and lawmakers in blue states are most concerned with state and local tax (SALT) reforms. 'You have so many [Republicans] trying to inject themselves into the Senate's process by drawing red lines it's laughable,' the senior House GOP aide shared. 'It's true the Senate has had significant setbacks with the parliamentarian, but these House guys' posturing is setting themselves up for a rude awakening.' In the House, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is upset with an AI provision that would hamper states' ability to regulate the nascent tech.
House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris and Reps. Chip Roy and Ralph Norman, meanwhile, have decried the price tag of the overall bill. 'Chip Roy will for sure,' buckle and vote for the bill under pressure, the GOP House aide shared, adding that Harris would also fold. 'We didn't realize demanding fiscal responsibility, opposing trillion-dollar deficit hikes, and fighting swamp subsidies counted as 'bluffing,"' a source familiar with the HFC chairman responded.
New York Republican Nick Lalota has said he's a 'no for now' until SALT reforms are made. Other 'bluffers' who will eventually back the OBBB despite previously voicing doubts include Rep. Victoria Spartz, Tim Burchett, Eric Burlison and Josh Breechen. 'The Senate version, as it stands currently, cuts out many of the key provisions from the House bill that the President wanted,' a spokesperson for Burchett told the Daily Mail. 'The Congressman always votes his conscience, and will continue to do so when it is time to vote on the OBBB.'
Still, most House Republicans say they are flexible and are waiting to see the final text passed by the Senate. A crop of upper chamber Republicans are also making a fuss. GOP Sens. Josh Hawley, Thom Tillis, Lisa Murkoswki, Susan Collins and Jerry Moran have all expressed concern over a provider tax provision that could cut funding to rural hospitals.
A Senate GOP aide told the Daily Mail Tillis, who faces re-election in 2026, will fold '100 percent.' 'He has to vote for it or else Trump will support a primary challenger,' they added, noting a longstanding feud between Trump and the North Carolina senator. As the Senate continues to finalize its version of the bill, time is running out.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said this week he hopes to have the chamber vote on the OBBB on Saturday, however, it's unclear whether the text of the measure will be ready. Should the Senate pass the bill by then, the House would have to sprint to align itself with all of the changes before July 4th on next Friday.