Experts: 10% chance storm system could develop into tropical cyclone

Daily Mail​

4 days ago

Hurricane trackers have gone on high alert, warning that a new Gulf Coast storm threatens nearly 12 million Americans in the storm's potential path this week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an urgent warning Wednesday morning, saying there is now a 10 percent chance the brewing storm system could develop into a tropical cyclone, bringing dangerous weather to coastal cities from Florida to Texas. Officials warned that the storm will likely cause intense rainfall, urban flooding, rough surf, and rip currents between Wednesday and Friday.
Forecasters are expecting thunderstorms to move from the Carolinas, across Florida, and into the Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico), where it'll affect Alabama , Mississippi , Louisiana , and Texas. AccuWeather has forecasted several inches of rain across the northern Gulf Coast, with parts of the Interstate 10 corridor in Jacksonville, Florida, at risk of receiving more than six inches of rainfall in just a few hours over the weekend.
The alert comes just a few weeks after catastrophic flash flooding tore through the Texas Hill Country, killing at least 135 people, including dozens of children at a summer camp. Hundreds of other floods across the country have led AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter to predict that 2025 may go down at the "worst flash flood year in modern US history." 'We've already seen a 70 percent jump in flash flood reports compared to the 10-year average, and we're only in July,' Porter revealed.
So far this year, flash floods have killed at least 184 people across the US, with major storms hitting Texas, North Carolina, New Mexico, Illinois, and multiple state in the Northeast. In last weekend alone, nearly 200 flash floods were reported as storms swept from the Midwest to the mid-Atlantic. At least one person died after a creek in Overland Park, Kansas, rapidly overflowed and swept through a running trail. Additional floods struck North Carolina, where six died during a 'one-in-1,000-year' rainfall event in Chapel Hill.
The downpour caused the city's second-heaviest hourly rainfall on record, sending water surging into subways, closing streets, and overwhelming the city's drainage system. At least two people were killed in New Jersey after their car was swept away by floodwaters. Officials have reported more than 4,800 flash flood in 2025, and experts warn the worst may be yet to come. This week's storm could follow a similar path, according to AccuWeather's team monitoring tropical storms, who said t hese floods are not just random events anymore.
'Storms are being intensified by a warmer atmosphere and more moisture in the air. And we're seeing the toll, city by city,' Porter emphasized. Officials are now urging Americans in flood-prone areas to stay alert. Showers and storms are expected to intensify into the weekend with, increasing the chances of flash flooding, especially in urban and low-lying areas throughout the Gulf States.
The conditions are being driven by a rare mix of extreme heat, trapped tropical moisture from a stronger-than-usual Bermuda High, and storm systems sweeping down from Canada. Brett Anderson, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, said this storm system pattern is hitting more land than usual. 'We're seeing extreme rainfall across the entire US, not just the usual trouble spots,' he added.
One major factor is the amount of water vapor in the air. In a 30 year of analysis, AccuWeather scientists found that atmospheric moisture has steadily increased every summer. That means storms now carry more water, and when they strike, they unleash more of it in less time. Dan DePodwin, AccuWeather's senior forecasting director, explained that in regions like Texas and New Mexico, drought has hardened the soil to the point where it behaves like concrete.