Kamala Harris Ranks 6th in 2028 Betting Odds as 3 Rivals Take Early Lead
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
Polymarket kicked off its betting odds for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary last week, and former Vice President Kamala Harris is trailing five other Democratic candidates as of Monday.
Newsweek reached out to Harris' team for comment via her press contact form.
Why It Matters
In just a matter of days, more than $600,000 has been bet on Democratic candidates' chances of winning in the 2028 primary. Although the election is still years away, candidates are making moves like traveling to early-voting South Carolina to build support among primary voters or fundraising for potential campaigns.
The Democratic Party could be holding the most open primary in years, particularly depending on whether Harris decides to run for president again or seek the governorship in her home state of California, as no other candidate has a clear, consistent lead in polling.
What to Know
Polymarket betting odds give California Governor Gavin Newsom the best chance of becoming the party's nominee at 21 percent. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite among progressives, follows at 17 percent.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, whose decision not to run for statewide office in Michigan fueled speculation he will run for the White House, has a 13 percent chance of winning the nomination, according to Polymarket.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has a 6 percent chance, while Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Harris both have a 5 percent chance. As of early Monday afternoon, it cost slightly more to bet on Moore than on Harris.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear each had a 4 percent chance of becoming the party's nominee in the early betting odds.
Although Harris trails Polymarket odds, she still has a polling lead over other candidates in most surveys. However, she has not confirmed she plans to run and is also speculated to be considering a gubernatorial run—it's unclear whether or not her odds would increase if she chooses against that run. A decision is expected to come toward the end of the summer.
The latest McLaughlin poll showed Harris with a lead. Twenty-five percent of respondents said they planned to support her, compared to nine percent for Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez and eight percent for Buttigieg. However, that still marked her lowest vote share in a McLaughlin poll. In June, for instance, the pollster found that 30 percent of respondents would support her.
The McLaughlin poll surveyed 1,000 general election voters from July 9 to July 14, 2025.
On the other hand, a new AtlasIntel poll found that 27 percent of Democrats leaned toward Buttigieg, 19 percent toward Ocasio-Cortez, 16 percent toward Newsom and 15 percent toward Harris.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the White House in Washington, D.C. on July 22, 2024.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the White House in Washington, D.C. on July 22, 2024.That poll surveyed 1,935 respondents from July 13 to July 18, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Polymarket also found that Democrats have a 55 percent chance of winning the presidency in 2028 and that Vice President JD Vance has an early lead in the Republican primary. Polymarket correctly predicted Trump as the victor in last November's presidential race.
What People Are Saying
Kamala Harris, speaking about her plans earlier this year while visiting Los Angeles sites impacted by wildfires: "My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them...I am here and would be here regardless of the office I hold, because it is the right thing to do, which is to show up in your community and thank the folks who are on the ground."
Democratic influencer Harry Sisson wrote to X: "Polymarket just launched their 2028 election and nominee markets and Gavin Newsom is ahead. He would be a terrific nominee and an amazing president. MAGA wouldn't have a chance after Trump's disastrous presidency."
What Happens Next
The first votes of the primary will not be cast until early 2028, and most candidates are unlikely to announce whether they are running until after the 2026 midterm elections.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Boston Globe
25 minutes ago
- Boston Globe
Vice President JD Vance is on the road again to sell the Republicans' big new tax law
In West Pittston, Pennsylvania, Vance told attendees at an industrial machine shop that they should be able to keep more of their pay in their pockets, highlighting the law's new tax deductions on overtime. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Vance also discussed a new children's savings program called Trump Accounts and how the new law promotes energy extraction, while decrying Democrats for opposing the bill that keeps the current tax rates, which would have otherwise expired later this year. Advertisement The legislation cleared the GOP-controlled Congress by the narrowest of margins, with Vance breaking a tie vote in the Senate for the package that also sets aside hundreds of billions of dollars for Trump's immigration agenda while slashing Medicaid and food stamps. The vice president is also stepping up his public relations blitz on the bill as the White House tries to deflect attention away from the growing controversy over Jeffrey Epstein. Advertisement The disgraced financier killed himself, authorities say, in a New York jail cell in 2019 as he awaited trial on sex trafficking charges. Trump and his top allies stoked conspiracy theories about Epstein's death before Trump returned to the White House and are now reckoning with the consequences of a Justice Department announcement earlier this month that Epstein did indeed die by suicide and that no further documents about the case would be released. Questions about the case continued to dog Trump in Scotland, where he on Sunday announced a framework trade deal with the European Union. Asked about the timing of the trade announcement and the Epstein case and whether it was correlated, Trump responded: 'You got to be kidding with that.' 'No, had nothing to do with it,' Trump told the reporter. 'Only you would think that.' The White House sees the new law as a clear political boon, sending Vance to promote it in swing congressional districts that will determine whether Republicans retain their House majority next year. The northeastern Pennsylvania stop is in the district represented by Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, a first-term lawmaker who knocked off a six-time Democratic incumbent last fall. On Monday, Vance will be in the district of Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes, who is a top target for the National Republican Congressional Committee this cycle. Polls before the bill's passage showed that it largely remained unpopular, although the public approves of some individual provisions such as increasing the child tax credit and allowing workers to deduct more of their tips on taxes.
Hamilton Spectator
an hour ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Vice President JD Vance is on the road again to sell the Republicans' big new tax law
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Vice President JD Vance is hitting his home state on Monday to continue promoting the GOP's sweeping tax-and-border bill. He will be in Canton, Ohio, to talk about the bill's 'benefits for hardworking American families and businesses,' according to his office. Aides offered little detail in advance about the visit, but NBC News reported that his remarks will take place at a steel plant in Canton, located about 60 miles south of Cleveland. The visit marks Vance's second trip this month to sell the package, filled with a hodgepodge of conservative priorities that Republicans have dubbed the 'One Big, Beautiful Bill' as the vice president becomes its chief promoter on the road. In West Pittston, Pennsylvania, Vance told attendees at an industrial machine shop that they should be able to keep more of their pay in their pockets, highlighting the law's new tax deductions on overtime. Vance also discussed a new children's savings program called Trump Accounts and how the new law promotes energy extraction, while decrying Democrats for opposing the bill that keeps the current tax rates, which would have otherwise expired later this year. The legislation cleared the GOP-controlled Congress by the narrowest of margins, with Vance breaking a tie vote in the Senate for the package that also sets aside hundreds of billions of dollars for Trump's immigration agenda while slashing Medicaid and food stamps. The vice president is also stepping up his public relations blitz on the bill as the White House tries to deflect attention away from the growing controversy over Jeffrey Epstein . The disgraced financier killed himself, authorities say, in a New York jail cell in 2019 as he awaited trial on sex trafficking charges. Trump and his top allies stoked conspiracy theories about Epstein's death before Trump returned to the White House and are now reckoning with the consequences of a Justice Department announcement earlier this month that Epstein did indeed die by suicide and that no further documents about the case would be released. Questions about the case continued to dog Trump in Scotland, where he on Sunday announced a framework trade deal with the European Union. Asked about the timing of the trade announcement and the Epstein case and whether it was correlated, Trump responded: 'You got to be kidding with that.' 'No, had nothing to do with it,' Trump told the reporter. 'Only you would think that.' The White House sees the new law as a clear political boon, sending Vance to promote it in swing congressional districts that will determine whether Republicans retain their House majority next year. The northeastern Pennsylvania stop is in the district represented by Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, a first-term lawmaker who knocked off a six-time Democratic incumbent last fall. On Monday, Vance will be in the district of Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes, who is a top target for the National Republican Congressional Committee this cycle. Polls before the bill's passage showed that it largely remained unpopular, although the public approves of some individual provisions such as increasing the child tax credit and allowing workers to deduct more of their tips on taxes. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
Thousands of Boeing Employees Could Strike Next Week: What To Know?
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. More than 3,200 union workers at three St. Louis-area plants that produce U.S. fighter jets voted "overwhelmingly" to go on strike on Sunday after they rejected a proposed contract that included a 20 percent wage increase over four years. The company said it was preparing for a strike that the union said could begin on Aug. 4. Why It Matters The company has faced serious difficulties over recent years including several safety-related incidents. In March, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Boeing had lost the trust of the American people and needed strict oversight after a mid-air panel blowout on a new Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9 airplane that was missing four key bolts and two fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 people. A Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashed in India last month killing 260 people. A strike late last year by machinists' union memes put a heavy toll on the company, compounding existing production issues and stalling the manufacturing of its key aircraft, including the 737 MAX, 767, and 777 models. Pro-union signs are pictured outside the Boeing Renton Production Facility on November 3, 2024. More than 3,000 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers in the St. Louis area voted on Sunday... Pro-union signs are pictured outside the Boeing Renton Production Facility on November 3, 2024. More than 3,000 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers in the St. Louis area voted on Sunday to go on strike. MoreWhat To Know The International Machinists and Aerospace Workers union, or IAM, said the vote by District 837 members was overwhelmingly against the proposed contract. The current contract was to expire at 11:59 p.m. CT on Sunday, but the union said a "cooling off" period would keep a strike from beginning for a week, until Aug. 4, according to The Associated Press. Union leaders had recommended approving Boeing's offer sent last week, calling it a "landmark" agreement that the offer would improve medical, pension and overtime benefits in addition to pay. Dan Gillian, Boeing's Air Dominance vice president, general manager and senior St. Louis Site executive said in an emailed statement that the company was disappointed that the Boeing employees voted down "the richest contract offer we've ever presented to IAM 837 which addressed all their stated priorities." The Boeing Air Dominance division produces several military jets, including the U.S. Navy's Super Hornet, as well as the Air Force's Red Hawk training aircraft. The division is expanding manufacturing facilities in the St. Louis area for the new U.S. Air Force fighter, the F-47, after it won the contract earlier this year. The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter jet program, initially conceived as a "family of systems" centered around a sixth-generation fighter jet, is meant to replace the F-22 Raptor. What People Are Saying Boeing's Air Dominance Vice President Gillian said in the statement: "We've activated our contingency plan and are focused on preparing for a strike. No talks are scheduled with the union." IAM said in a statement: "Union members delivered a clear message: the proposal from Boeing Defense fell short of addressing the priorities and sacrifices of the skilled IAM Union workforce. Our members are standing together to demand a contract that respects their work and ensures a secure future." What Happens Next The strike is due to begin after a one-week "cooling off" period, on Aug. 4.
