Kamala Harris isn't running for California governor. Is Rick Caruso?

Yahoo

2 days ago

SACRAMENTO, California — Kamala Harris just answered the biggest question in California politics.
Now everyone is asking about Rick Caruso.
For months, the prospect of Harris' entry into the governor's race froze the 2026 contest as candidates and donors waited to see if she would seize the frontrunner's mantle. But if Harris was the largest domino still teetering, the Los Angeles billionaire and former mayoral candidate was widely seen as a close second — and Harris' pass has given him options.
'I do think he'd now be more likely to look to a possible gubernatorial race," said Donna Bojarsky, a Los Angeles civic leader and fundraiser. 'There's not only no obvious frontrunner — there's a very challenging path for every single person running.'
Caruso's political debut ended in failure when the Republican-turned-Democrat mall magnate lost his City Hall bid by seven points despite sinking more than $100 million of his own wealth into the campaign. But few political observers thought he was finished, and his path diverged into two obvious choices: challenge Bass again or shift his aim to the governor's office.
Without Harris, the governor's race looks like a wide open contest. And while Caruso has been circumspect about his next move — he did not release a statement about Harris bowing out and declined to comment for this story — behind the scenes, the wheels are turning.
Supporters lit up Caruso's phone after Harris made her announcement, according to a confidante, some urging him to run for governor, while others pushing the mayoral race.
Harris' decision gave Caruso a cleaner path in the governor's race, given that he would no longer have to contend with the former vice president's universal name ID and strong fundraising.
'The race has opened up a bit. Kamala had weaknesses and a ceiling, but she had support, too,' said the confidante, who was granted anonymity to discuss Caruso's view of the political playing field. 'Everything clicked up a notch, maybe two notches, as far as the excitement level. But in terms of a plan, it's going to be a while.'
The signals from Caruso world that suggest he is in no rush to declare reflects the billionaire's luxury of time, given his ability to self-fund.
So far, Caruso has taken a deliberate approach. He has polled both races and spent the last five or six months traversing California on a listening tour with prominent political donors, including tech entrepreneurs, gathering their input on key issues and their thoughts about outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Caruso has often acted and sounded like a man still running for mayor, lambasting Bass over her faltering response to the January wildfires, which ignited while she was out of the country. But in recent weeks, Bass has found some footing, rallying her base against the Trump administration's sweeping immigration raids and presiding over a steady reduction in homelessness.
'After the fires, the prevailing wisdom was Karen Bass was politically vulnerable and Caruso was a prime opponent to run against her — six months later she's seen as handling the ICE raids in LA very well and her political standing is much better than it was,' said Kevin Liao, a Los Angeles-based political consultant who has worked in the California statehouse. 'Governor appears like a path he'd have a more realistic chance of winning.'
In 2022, Caruso ran for mayor as a business-savvy outsider willing to defy an ossified political establishment. He sought to win over working-class and Latino voters disillusioned with the city's pervasive homelessness problem and spiraling cost of living.
It was not enough to win in deep-blue Los Angeles, where Bass enjoyed the backing of labor unions and was well known to voters and political power brokers after years in Congress. But some observers believe there is an audience for a similar message in the 2026 governor's race after California Democrats lost ground in 2024.
'Many Californians, including lifelong Democrats, are looking for change in California,' said Sam Yebri, a nonprofit executive and head of a centrist political group who supports Caruso. 'Voters in this moment want someone who will deliver real results for the average Californian, not someone who will just kick and scream and stomp around about the Trump administration.'
A governor's race would offer new insight into how Caruso defines his political identity. His past affiliation with the GOP has led many stalwart Democrats to view him skeptically and his party shape-shifting was used as a cudgel against him in the 2022 race against Bass.
But Caruso has since tried to shore up his bona fides as a Democrat, including donating to the party's House candidates last cycle and co-hosting a Joe Biden fundraiser. A visit to Caruso's office has also become a rite of passage for would-be 2028 Democratic presidential aspirants in Los Angeles to raise money and rub shoulders with Hollywood's elite.
Caruso would also hold an important asset in a prohibitively expensive statewide race. He could draw on his considerable fortune to counter the family wealth of Eleni Kounalakis and small-dollar appeal of former Rep. Katie Porter.
'Think of the governor's race as a congested freeway — Rick has the resources to at least clear a lane for himself,' said former Los Angeles Councilmember Mike Bonin, who now directs the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs.
He could also seize the moderate lane from contenders like former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who would be vying for a similar base without being able to marshal Caruso's resources.
But money isn't everything, as Caruso's 2022 bid showed. In an overwhelmingly blue state where many Democratic base voters are itching for combat with a hostile Trump administration, Caruso may not have a message for the moment.
'The shoals of California politics are littered with the wrecks of rich centrists who try to run for higher office,' said Mike Shimpock, a Southern California political consultant. 'There's always this belief that there's some secret centrist path to the governorship. I find it akin to the yellow brick road: It doesn't really exist.'