Big 12 football 2025 win-loss record predictions, per ESPN's FPI
The 2025 Big 12 football season continues to inch closer. Only 83 days remain until Colorado kicks off against Georgia Tech on Friday, August 29.
Important offseason events continue to come and go as we get closer to the season. Over the past few weeks, ESPN released its power rating metrics, SP+ and Football Power Index. When those ratings receive updates after the spring, it means we have a good feeling for what each team will look like during the upcoming season.
ESPN released its FPI for the 2025 season earlier this week. Within those ratings, we have conference championship chances and the likelihood that a team reaches six or more wins.
As a reminder, here is how ESPN describes the methodology behind its Football Power Index:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.
The ratings span the entire college football landscape, but you can also sort by specific conferences. In such a crowded Big 12, it is essential to focus on how the 16 teams stack up.
With that in mind, here are ESPN's FPI's record predictions for every Big 12 football team in 2025, ordered from lowest to highest. They're also compared with our recent win-loss projections for each team after spring camp.
Projected Win-Loss: 4.8-7.2
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 6-6 (3-6 Big 12)
FPI Rating: -3.7 (No. 75 overall)
Houston is one of the few teams where our prediction differs from FPI. The Cougars hold the easiest conference schedule in the Big 12 and the No. 15 easiest overall schedule. ESPN's FPI gives Houston a 34.8% chance to win six games, and I think they get there.
15. Arizona Wildcats
Projected Win-Loss: 4.9-7.1
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12)
FPI Rating: -1.0 (No. 69 overall)
Arizona does not have high expectations going into 2025. Brent Brennan's team does have Noah Fifita under center, but other than him, the talent cabinet is bleak.
14. West Virginia Mountaineers
Projected Win-Loss: 5.2-6.9
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 0.5 (No. 66 overall)
Rich Rodriguez is back in Morgantown, tasked with rebuilding the program. It won't be easy and 2025 should be viewed as a growth year. West Virginia is another team that I see falling short of its SP+ record projection.
Projected Win-Loss: 5.5-6.6
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 0.3 (No. 67 overall)
Mike Gundy's team should be a lot better than they were last year when it finished last in the Big 12. The Cowboys might not be back to their elite ways, but they should be much improved.
12. Cincinnati Bearcats
Projected Win-Loss: 6.4-5.7
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 3.6 (No. 53 overall)
Cincinnati is a difficult team to pin down heading into 2025. Will they improve from their 2024 5-7 record and make a bowl game, or take a step back? They have a few tossups, so anywhere around 6-6 sounds about right.
11. Utah Utes
Projected Win-Loss: 6.4-5.6
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 4.8 (No. 46 overall)
Utah, similar to Oklahoma State, should be a significantly better team than it was in 2024. FPI doesn't think the Utes will be dramatically better, but I see them finishing with a winning record in conference play.
Projected Win-Loss: 6.5-5.5
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 6-6 (3-6 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 4.2 (No. 49 overall)
Colorado finishing above Utah would be a surprise, but FPI thinks it is possible. Deion Sanders' Buffaloes team will need to reshape their identity in 2025 with the departures of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. A 9-3 season is unlikely, but with a challenging schedule, becoming bowl-eligible should be considered a major win.
9. Iowa State Cyclones
Projected Win-Loss: 6.7-5.4
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 4.8 (No. 45 overall)
I don't see a significant regression from the Cyclones after a program-best 11-win season a year ago. They might not win 11 games again, but Iowa State should remain in the hunt and, at the very least, win seven games.
8. UCF Knights
Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-4.9
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 6.9 (No. 37 overall)
I just don't see UCF being the eighth-best team in the Big 12. Scott Frost is retooling the roster, and the Knights lost their top player in running back RJ Harvey. Frost likely improves upon last season's 4-8 record, but I don't see them touching seven or eight wins.
7. TCU Horned Frogs
Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-5.0
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 8.2 (No. 32 overall)
TCU could win 10 games, or they could win six. Right now, I have them right in the middle with eight projected victories. Of the teams with a better than 5% chance to win the conference, the Horned Frogs have the lowest chance (79.1%) to win six games.
6. Baylor Bears
Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-5.0
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 8.0 (No. 33 overall)
Maybe I am too high on Baylor, predicting a 10-win regular season. But after they closed out the 2024 conference slate with six straight wins, there are more wins in the tank. If the Bears sweep their tough nonconference games against Auburn and SMU, then a full-on breakout is possible.
Projected Win-Loss: 7.9-4.3
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 8.4 (No. 30 overall)
I am a big fan of the Jayhawks. Jalon Daniels is a talented quarterback who can win you a few games by himself. Lance Leipold's squad should be the most improved team in the conference.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Projected Win-Loss: 7.9-4.2
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 7.4 (No. 35 overall)
I think Texas Tech could win the Big 12 and more. They brought in the nation's No. 1 transfer portal class and have an experienced quarterback, Behren Morton, set to take another step forward.
3. BYU Cougars
Projected Win-Loss: 8.0-4.2
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 8.4 (No. 29 overall)
The Big 12 becomes very crowded at the top with several teams projected around the same record. BYU is one of those teams, and they own a very manageable schedule. A three-game stretch against Utah, Iowa State and Texas Tech will determine if the Cougars play for the Big 12 title in December.
2. Arizona State Sun Devils
Projected Win-Loss: 8.3-3.9
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 9.5 (No. 24 overall)
The Sun Devils won't fly under the radar anymore after winning the Big 12 in 2024. Sam Leavitt is a star at quarterback and Kenny Dillingham is an ascending young coach. The schedule is not too difficult, making another 10-win year within reach.
Projected Win-Loss: 8.6-3.7
Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)
FPI Rating: 10.8 (No. 21 overall)
The Big 12 title favorite according to FPI and a solid top 20 team in the country. Kansas State might have the best quarterback in the Big 12 (Avery Johnson) and head coach Chris Klieman, who seems to only win football games. That is a potent combination, making the Wildcats deserving to be talked about as the top team in the conference going into the season.
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