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New York Times
3 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
How many college football teams could have won a national title with Nick Saban?
Editor's note: This story is a part of No Wrong Answers, a series that explores the college sports questions you've always been curious about — and the ones you never thought to ask. Read our attempt to figure out which college football team has the most fans here. Before Nick Saban became the greatest coach of all time, he was calculated about the jobs he took. The LSU and Alabama programs he inherited were underachievers that still had great recruiting footprints, top-tier resources, storied traditions and everything else that adds up to championship potential. Saban turned them into champions again. But what if Saban chose differently? Advertisement What if, instead of pursuing distressed assets, he went after a bigger fixer-upper — or a program that was never up in the first place? That leads us to this hypothetical with no wrong answers. Let's say Saban left Alabama after winning it all in 2015. What's the worst program the best version of the best coach in college football history could have led to a national title? Could he have lived out the video game dynasty mode fantasy of turning a low-prestige program into a champion? What limits would there have been to Saban's power? To come up with a good-faith, albeit unscientific, answer, The Athletic examined six critical factors, from on-field metrics to talent to money. We identified every FBS program's historic norms, quantified Alabama's growth under Saban — let's call it the Saban Effect — and then determined whether he could have pushed that school past the threshold necessary to win a national championship. Our process took us from 133 potential candidates — every FBS incumbent except for Alabama (no need to game that one out) — to a list of 33 programs. The final list of possible title winners includes obvious headliners, a couple of surprises and one very tantalizing what-if. At the end, we survey our staff for their thoughts. Let us know who you think Saban could have won a championship with in the comments. It's unreasonable to think that even Saban could lead perennial cellar-dwellers like UMass or his alma mater, Kent State, to a national championship. So we used two sets of advanced metrics to lop off the bottom chunk of the FBS. Bear with us for a little wonky math that's not as complicated as it sounds. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and Sports Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS) both crunch numbers beyond wins and losses to compare teams to the national average. For broad context, the best teams' ratings are generally above 20, and the worst teams are below negative-20. Advertisement Before Saban (2005-06), Alabama's FPI average was 11.6. During his 2010-13 peak, the Crimson Tide's average FPI was 29. Subtract Saban's starting point from his peak, and we see how much better he made the Crimson Tide: a Saban Effect of 17.4. With SRS, we compared the four years before Saban to a different elite stretch (2017-20). The Saban Effect (17.1) was about the same. Still with us? Good. Our next step was to establish the advanced-metrics floor for title winners. Aside from 2010 Auburn — not even Saban can clone Cam Newton — the lowest FPI for a recent national champion was 24 (Saban's 2009 Crimson Tide). In SRS, it was 20 (2016 Clemson). Because the Saban Effect boosts his new team by about 17, a program needed a baseline of 6.6 in FPI and 2.9 in SRS to reach the championship floor. Our grading was generous; a program passed if it averaged those figures over any four-season stint since 2005. This category knocked out 70 teams, including Illinois, Maryland, Purdue, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Virginia and Wake Forest at the Power 4 level — plus Toledo, Saban's first head coaching job in 1990. The only teams outside the current Power 4 to live on? Pac-12 holdovers Oregon State and Washington State, plus Appalachian State, Boise State, Memphis and South Florida. You can't win championships without loaded recruiting classes, and nobody in modern college football history has amassed talent on the recruiting trail like Saban. We used the same thought process as in Factor 1 to determine whether adding Saban's recruiting prowess could build a championship-level roster at each school. We assumed any program that hires him will provide the staff and infrastructure necessary to sign top-tier classes … as long as they're financially able to do so (we'll come back to that). Advertisement We used Rivals' rankings because its data goes back farthest, and we excluded Saban's 2007 transition class, signed just after he became head coach. Alabama recruiting pre-Saban (2002-06) Alabama recruiting with Saban (2008-23) That data gives us a Saban Effect of about 23 spots in the class rankings and almost one full star per recruit. To find the recruiting floor for a national championship, we analyzed the four classes before a team's title run (those hauls formed the bulk of every depth chart). All but 2010 Auburn averaged a top-12 ranking or better, and nearly every champion since 2005 averaged at least 3.6 stars per signee. Those thresholds mean a team's historical average must be a top-35 recruiting class or 2.6 stars to rise to championship contention with the Saban Effect. This factor eliminates the remaining teams outside the Power 4, except for Oregon State. Though BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF were weighed down by their time outside a Power 4 conference, none have signed a top-35 class since joining the Big 12, either. The list of 53 contenders still includes Cal (which hit both criteria) along with Kansas, Boston College, Northwestern and Rutgers (which survived based on their recruits' average star ranking). Two other caveats: We ignored the transfer portal as a workaround because Saban relied mostly on high school prospects during his Alabama tenure. And because his Crimson Tide recruited so well nationally — he plucked superstars everywhere from Texas, Florida, California, New Jersey and Hawaii — we didn't consider geography or proximity to talent, which were inherent advantages Saban had at Alabama. This one is slightly arbitrary but simple. Even though Saban is a historically great recruiter, it's unrealistic to expect him to sign several elite prospects annually at a school that has no track record of doing so. Our proof-of-concept requirement: at least one five-star signee in any of the 24 classes of the modern recruiting era. Advertisement Kansas' title hopes end here, along with Baylor, Iowa State, Minnesota and Northwestern. Georgia Tech's out, too, because Calvin Johnson was merely a four-star prospect by Rivals. But three-time Pro Bowler DeSean Jackson was a five-star talent, which helped Cal advance. The top junior college signee of 2008, defensive lineman Simu Kuli, keeps Oregon State in the mix, just as the No. 25 recruit in the 2004 class, linebacker Brian Toal, pushes Boston College to the next phase. Even if a school is willing to install and implement Saban's famed 'Process,' it has to have the money to fund his army of analysts while competing in the arms races of facilities and NIL. In the three years before Saban's arrival, Alabama reported an average of $46.9 million in football revenue to the U.S. Department of Education. In the three years after his arrival, the Crimson Tide reported $64.6 million. We'll expect a proportional bounce for other schools, so the Saban Effect is a 38 percent income bump based on the wins and booster buzz he'd provide. Because fiscal years don't overlap cleanly with football seasons, the numbers are squishy. But almost every national champion since 2005 has ranked among the top 10 in football expenses around its title run. A 38 percent increase in football revenue still wasn't enough to jolt the budgets of Boston College, Cal, Oregon State and Rutgers consistently to that level. We'll assume they can't give Saban the resources he demands, so they're the next group to go. Because elite talent doesn't always lead to championships, we also have to consider how well that talent was developed. The NFL Draft is an imperfect but instructive barometer. Average NFL Draft picks Since Saban's 2011 title team, most national champions have produced about 30 picks over the next three drafts. A reasonable floor was 18 (the number of draftees from Trevor Lawrence's 2018 Clemson team). If the Saban Effect alone provides 10.8 picks over three seasons, the team itself must produce 7.2. That's an average of 2.4 picks per year. If a program hasn't been able to clear that relatively low bar since 2000, it probably lacks the infrastructure required for Saban to lift the team to the top. This factor knocks out Arizona, Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and West Virginia, the flagship school of Saban's home state. Our list is down to 35, with Arizona State (2.46 picks per year) barely squeaking through. Like five-star recruiting, this final category is simple and somewhat arbitrary. It's hard to think a team is capable of winning a national championship if it has never flashed championship potential. Both Alabama and LSU won titles before Saban, and both had a 10-win season in the four years before his arrival. Advertisement Our proof-of-concept bar is lower. We mandated at least one AP top-10 finish since 1992 (the year of Alabama's last pre-Saban crown). That means we must say goodbye to Pitt and North Carolina State, the latter of which has never finished in the top 10. Their exits leave us with this final list of 33 programs (plus Alabama) that could have won a national championship with the peak version of Nick Saban: Arizona State, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Iowa, Louisville, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, South Carolina, Stanford, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Utah, Virginia Tech, Washington and Wisconsin. Not surprisingly, the group includes every national champion since Colorado and Georgia Tech split the crown in 1990. The Spartans, who haven't won a national title since 1966, are the most intriguing option because Saban coached there from 1995-99. He went 25-22-1 over his first four seasons before a 9-2, top-10 breakthrough that springboarded him to LSU. You can use his mixed Michigan State tenure as evidence that Saban couldn't build a champion without the elite resources, tradition and recruiting pull of a marquee program like LSU or Alabama. In that case, the list is probably smaller than 33. You can also reach the opposite conclusion. Perhaps Saban simply needed time to amass enough talent to revamp a program that had only one top-10 finish in the previous quarter century. Or maybe the early struggles at his first head coaching job in a major conference provided the teachable moments that turned him into the greatest coach ever. What if he stayed in East Lansing for the long haul? That's a what-if for another day. Advertisement Of our final 33 contenders, nine have not claimed a national championship in the AP poll era (since 1936). Oregon and Virginia Tech have both played for a title since the BCS began, so set them aside, too. Our answer, then, is on this worst-of-the-best list: Arizona State, Louisville, North Carolina, South Carolina, Stanford, Utah and Wisconsin. By our numbers, the weakest remaining option is … Louisville! The Cardinals are the only one without a top-five finish since 1990 and had the lowest average FPI. Their recruiting rankings were virtually tied with Utah at the bottom of the top tier, and the Sun Devils were the only contender with lower NFL Draft production. Louisville's perch in the ACC also provides a power conference starting point with an easier route to the Playoff. Pair a Saban defense with 2016 Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, and a national title doesn't seem outlandish. To add a human element to the debate, we surveyed 17 of The Athletic's college sports staffers for their thoughts. Baylor and Texas Tech (12 votes each) are the top contenders that didn't crack our above list. Multiple staffers said Saban could have won titles at Maryland and Virginia. Scott Dochterman picked Louisville as Saban's worst potential championship for the reasons cited above. Other answers included: West Virginia: 'He would sign all his boys from his hometown and turn them into studs that crushed everyone with their toughness and physicality.' — Grace Raynor Stanford: 'I'm really intrigued by if he could have won at Stanford in their heyday (which was not that many years ago) … Could he have made Christian McCaffrey even more dominant?' — Lindsay Schnell South Carolina: 'The Gamecocks' only three top-10 seasons came under one Hall of Fame coach (Steve Spurrier), and another (Lou Holtz) never fared better than the Outback Bowl. But both were in their final years. If Spurrier could win 11 games three times during the Saban era while nearing retirement, it's not a stretch to think peak Saban could have elevated the Gamecocks to an even higher level and won a national title.' — Matt Baker Advertisement Michigan State: 'Ironically, Michigan State is probably the worst program that I thought Saban could lead to a national championship, which he left to go win a national championship at LSU. Also, everyone in the SEC could/would win it all with Saban other than Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.' — Pete Sampson Washington: 'And even that I thought was a stretch. I firmly believe that in college football its nature over nurture when it comes to the ability to contend for a national title. Even the greatest coach of all-time needs the right conditions. Saban himself recognized that. Which is why he ended up at Alabama in the first place.' — Ralph D. Russo Of the 68 Power 4 teams, 17 schools received unanimous support for being able to win a national title under Saban: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M and USC. Apologies to the six schools that received zero votes: Kansas, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest. Who do you think is the worst program Saban could have led to a national title? What other No Wrong Answers topics would you like to see? Let us know in the comments. (Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photo: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire / Getty, iStock; graphics: Thomas Oide / The Athletic)
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
SEC Coach Under Fire for Offseason Golf Habit After Back-to-Back Losing Seasons
SEC Coach Under Fire for Offseason Golf Habit After Back-to-Back Losing Seasons originally appeared on Athlon Sports. There's an old sentiment in college football that you don't want your coach to be a good golfer. Why? Because if he's good at golf, then he obviously isn't spending enough time in the facilities working, and is likely out on the course more often than he should be. Advertisement That's got to be the feeling among Auburn fans this week, with a report from some investigative fans showing that head coach Hugh Freeze has been spending a lot of time on the golf course this summer. According to the fan, Freeze played 10 rounds in the first 20 days of June. Auburn Tigers head coach Hugh Freeze.© Dale Zanine-Imagn Images Had some friends who play in Auburn tell me how much CHF plays, and it has led me to check his GHIN," the poster wrote. "Hugh played golf 10 of the first 20 days this month. I know people that are RETIRED that don't get to play that much, let alone making $7mm a year. Not blaming our struggles on this, but goodness, when you're under .500 here and ranked 47th in recruiting, I have concerns." Advertisement That's a fair thing to be concerned about as an Auburn fan. Since joining the Tigers in 2023, Freeze has gone 11-14 in his 25 games, with an 0-1 bowl record. Things aren't expected to get much better going forward, either. Most sports books have Auburn with a 7.5 win total for 2025, with ESPN's Football Power Index giving the Tigers just a 1.8% chance of winning the SEC. While it may be a bit crazy for someone to deep dive into the Golf Handicap and Information Network (GHIN) to sleuth out a handicap, this Auburn fan feels justified in his findings. "I understand that it is insane behavior for me to have dove into this, and I do not care. When I have friends tell me he is at the course every day as an SEC head football coach, I am going to investigate. Just pretend like you're working harder than you actually are, because I am tired of losing." Advertisement Seeing as it is the offsesaon in college football, there are few media availabilities for Freeze to be pressed on this, if any. We'll see if Auburn reporters bring it up come August. Related: Florida State Fans Furious Over Thomas Castellanos' Latest Controversial Comments This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 23, 2025, where it first appeared.
USA Today
20-06-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
ESPN makes 2025 Georgia football record prediction
The Georgia Bulldogs could be facing an SEC championship rematch in 2025, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The Texas Longhorns (34.1%) and Georgia (26.9%) have the two best odds to win the SEC per FPI's estimate. The Alabama Crimson Tide (17.2%) are the only other SEC team with more than a 5% chance to win the conference. Interestingly, Georgia is scheduled to play both Texas and Alabama at home this season. Of course, playing Texas and Alabama on the road did not stop the Bulldogs from making the 2024 SEC championship where UGA went on to beat Texas in overtime. Texas, Georgia and Alabama are the top three teams in ESPN's FPI metric. They are also the three teams with the best chance to win the national championship along with the Ohio State Buckeyes. Key FPI Metrics Bottom Line ESPN's FPI is pretty high on Georgia entering the 2025 season despite all of the talent that Georgia lost. The Bulldogs lost 13 players to the 2025 NFL draft and had several more key contributors go undrafted. Georgia's 2025 team does not have as much experience as the Dawgs have had in previous years. Georgia will also be trotting out a new starting quarterback in Gunner Stockton. Georgia lost starting quarterback Carson Beck to the transfer portal in the winter. Beck and outside linebacker Damon Wilson highlight 20 Georgia players that left via the transfer portal. Coach Kirby Smart did bring in 10 transfers, but there's no doubt that the Bulldogs lost a lot of key players to the portal. Georgia will have a new look in the trenches. The Dawgs had a trio of interior offensive linemen drafted and lost their six leading sack producers from the 2024 season to the draft or transfer portal. Despite all the turnover, the standard remains the same in Athens. Georgia has a more manageable schedule in 2025 and winning 10 games during the regular season and returning to the College Football Playoff is a very achievable goal for the Dawgs. Follow UGAWire on Instagram or Threads!
USA Today
18-06-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
ESPN predicts Florida football's 2025 record–and it's not pretty
ESPN predicts Florida football's 2025 record–and it's not pretty The Florida Gators are staring down a .500 season in 2025, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Florida football is projected to go 6.4-5.6, effectively a 6-6 regular season–ranking 12th in the SEC. It's a tough outlook for head coach Billy Napier, who enters a pivotal fourth season under pressure to show progress. Despite the buzz surrounding quarterback DJ Lagway, one of college football's young stars, the Gators face the No. 1 toughest remaining schedule (REM SOS) in college football. That makes any turnaround effort even more difficult. The Gators sit well behind SEC contenders like the Texas Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide, each projected to win nine or more games and contend for playoff spots. Even middle-tier programs like the Oklahoma Sooners and Auburn Tigers are ranked above Florida in ESPN's advanced model. Key FPI Metrics SEC FPI Rank: 12th 12th Projected Record: 6.4-5.6 (6-6) 6.4-5.6 (6-6) Chance to win SEC: 1.0% 1.0% Playoff Chance: 14.5% 14.5% Bowl Eligibility Odds: 68.2% Bottom Line ESPN's FPI doesn't see Florida breaking through in 2025. For Napier and Lagway, a 6-6 season may be the floor–but also the line they have to rise above. With pressure mounting in Gainesville, exceeding expectations won't just quiet critics–it may be necessary to secure the future of the program's leadership. Every game will be a test–not just of talent, but of whether this rebuild is actually turning the corner. Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.
USA Today
14-06-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Update 2025 record projections for Big Ten football teams, per ESPN FPI
Update 2025 record projections for Big Ten football teams, per ESPN FPI There are a lot of eyes on the Big Ten Conference going into the 2025 college football season, with the Ohio State Buckeyes looking to defend their national championship with the Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions, and Indiana Hoosiers work to repeat as College Football Playoff teams. It will be a fun season in the conference, with a lot of new faces in new places and a handful of intriguing contenders trying to insert themselves into the top tier of teams alongside the Buckeyes, Ducks, Nittany Lions, and Hoosiers. While those teams have much of the attention at the top, there are also some intriguing storylines throughout the conference. Will UCLA be able to take a step forward with Nico Iamaleava Jr. at the helm? Will Mark Gronowski be able to overhaul Iowa's offense? Can Wisconsin get things going at long last this year under Luke Fickell? Will anyone step up and be this year's version of 2024 Indiana? All of those questions will be answered in months. Following the spring season, we took our stab at predicting the win-loss records for every Big Ten team, and with the release of ESPN's Football Power Index earlier this month, we have another set of data points to work with. Let's take a look at how ESPN predicts the season will shake out for the Big Ten teams: No. 18 — Purdue Boilermakers ESPN Record Projection: 3.2-8.8 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 2-10 (0-9 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Ball State, Southern Illinois Projected Losses: USC, Notre Dame, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, Indiana Despite bringing in Barry Odom as the new head coach, I don't think it will be a very successful year yet again for Purdue. They can pick up a couple of early non-conference wins, but I don't see a quick turnaround coming any time soon. No. 17 — Northwestern Wildcats ESPN Record Projection: 4.1-7.9 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Western Illinois, Louisiana-Monroe, Purdue Projected Losses: Tulane, Oregon, UCLA, Penn State, Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois The Wildcats were a nice story a couple of years ago with David Braun as the interim coach, but they regressed back to the mean last season and will probably stay there in 2025 as well. A season-opener against Tulane could prove tough, and the Big Ten schedule doesn't set up very nicely with games against Oregon, Penn State, USC, and Illinois down the stretch. No. 16 — Michigan State Spartans ESPN Record Projection: 5.2-6.8 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State, UCLA, Iowa, Maryland Projected Losses: USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State In year two under Jonathan Smith, it's not hard to imagine that the Michigan State Spartans take a bit of a step forward. They have the talent to be, at the very least, solid in the Big Ten, assuming that quarterback Aiden Chiles continues to improve and can cut down on his turnover numbers. The schedule sets up pretty favorably as well, with no games against Oregon or Ohio State on the schedule. For more Michigan State news and analysis, check out Spartans Wire! No. 15 — UCLA Bruins ESPN Record Projection: 5.4-6.6 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 4-6 (2-7 Big Ten) Projected Wins: UNLV, New Mexico State, Northwestern, Maryland, Projected Losses: Utah, Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State, Washington, USC How good will Nico Iamaleava Jr. be in his first year with the Bruins? The real question is how good will the Bruins be outside of Iamaleava to allow for overall team success? I see UCLA winning a few games, but as far as being a name to know in the Big Ten, I think we might need another year. For more UCLA news and analysis, check out UCLA Wire! No. 14 — Wisconsin Badgers ESPN Record Projection: 5.6-6.5 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Miami (OH), Middle Tennessee, Maryland, Minnesota Projected Losses: Alabama, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington, Indiana, Illinois If Luke Fickell is going to make his mark at Wisconsin, he needs to do it this year. While the Badgers draw tough games against Ohio State, Oregon, and Illinois, they could compete with the rest of the Big Ten teams on the docket. For more Wisconsin news and analysis, check out Badgers Wire! No. 13 — Rutgers Scarlet Knights ESPN Record Projection: 5.8-6.2 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 5-7 (2-7 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Ohio, Miami (OH), Norfolk State, Purdue, Rutgers Projected Losses: Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State Rutgers may be able to surprise a few people this year, with Kaliakmanis still under center, but I don't think they will be contending for a conference title any time soon. Unfortunately, the Scarlet Knights draw the big three in the conference, with Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State all on the schedule. No. 12 — Maryland Terrapins ESPN Record Projection: 5.9-6.1 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) Projected Wins: FAU, Northern Illinois, Towson, Rutgers Projected Losses: Wisconsin, Washington, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State Will this be the year that a below-average season leads Mike Locksley to the exit? You'd have to think that would be the case after winning just 33 of his last 75 games for the Terrapins. There are a few easy non-conference games on the schedule, but I don't see any reason to believe that Maryland will make a leap in the Big Ten this year. At some point, it's time to cut ties. No. 11 — Iowa Hawkeyes ESPN Record Projection: 6.2-5.8 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Albany, UMass, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska Projected Losses: Iowa State, Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, USC, Michigan State Much to the dismay of Hawkeyes fans, I foresee another ho-hum year for Iowa, where they struggle to contend with the top teams in the conference but can manage their way through the middle. Games against Penn State and Oregon will be tough, and an early non-conference clash with Iowa State won't be easy, but outside of that, the Hawkeyes should be able to win a few. For more Iowa news and analysis, check out Hawkeyes Wire! No. 10 — Illinois Fighting Illini ESPN Record Projection: 6.8-5.2 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 10-2 (7-2 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Western Illinois, Western Michigan, Indiana, USC, Purdue, Washington, Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern Projected Losses: Duke, Ohio State Many people are pegging Illinois to be this year's version of Indiana in the Big Ten this year, seeing as they return a lot of players, particularly on offense, and have a favorable schedule. Should the Illini get past Duke early in the season, it could be pretty smooth sailing until they face Ohio State at home midway through the year. This could certainly be a team that is hanging around near the top of the standings late in the year. No. 9 — Minnesota Golden Gophers ESPN Record Projection: 6.9-5.2 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 7-5 (4-5 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Buffalo, Northwestern State, Rutgers, Purdue, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin Projected Losses: Cal, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, Oregon We know that PJ Fleck is a solid coach, and with the right pieces, he can make some noise in the conference. I'm not sure that we see Minnesota taking a big jump this year, considering they are a bit unproven at the QB position, but they can certainly compete with some other middle-of-the-road teams in the Big Ten. No. 8 — Washington Huskies ESPN Record Projection: 7.1-4.9 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Colorado State, UC Davis, Washington State, Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, UCLA Projected Losses: Ohio State, Illinois, Oregon Nobody likes to discredit Washington more than Oregon fans, but even I have to admit that they could be pretty good this year. With Demond Williams under center and Jedd Fisch calling things, the Huskies' schedule is set up pretty favorably. Games against Ohio State, Illinois, and Oregon will all be tough, but they are at home in Seattle for all of them. For more Washington news and analysis, check out Huskies Wire! No. 7 — Indiana Hoosiers ESPN Record Projection: 7.5-4.5 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Iowa, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue Projected Losses: Illinois, Oregon, Penn State Indiana was the story of the Big Ten last year, thanks to some elite coaching from Curt Cignetti and great quarterback play from Kurtis Rourke. They were also beneficiaries of a favorable schedule. Will their success continue in 2025? It will depend on Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza, who has the talent necessary to get the Hoosiers back into contention for the Big Ten title. The Hoosiers do have to play both Oregon and Penn State on the road, though, which is tough. No. 6 — Nebraska Cornhuskers ESPN Record Projection: 7.5-4.5 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Cincinnati, Akron, Houston Christian, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, UCLA Projected Losses: USC, Penn State, Iowa If Dylan Raiola is as good as we were led to believe that he is, then this is when we should start to see it. I think that Nebraska is talented enough to compete at a high level in the Big Ten, and their schedule sets up for it this year, with no Ohio State or Oregon on the docket. Games against USC, Penn State, and Iowa will act as big tests, but this team could surprise some people when all is said and done. For more Nebraska news and analysis, check out Cornhuskers Wire! No. 5 — USC Trojans ESPN Record Projection: 8.3-3.9 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (7-2 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, UCLA Projected Losses: Illinois, Notre Dame, Oregon Assuming that Lincoln Riley can get some above-average quarterback play this year, USC could finally get out of the middle of the pack in the Big Ten and make a little bit of noise once November rolls around. They get to miss both Penn State and Ohio State on the schedule, but the yearly non-conference game against Notre Dame and a trip up to Eugene against the Ducks in November will be tough to handle. For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire! No. 4 — Michigan Wolverines ESPN Record Projection: 8.4-3.7 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten) Projected Wins: New Mexico State, Central Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland Projected Losses: Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC, Washington, Ohio State How good is Bryce Underwood going to be as a freshman? The answer to that question likely determines how good the Wolverines can be in 2025. They are talented on both sides of the ball, and if the true freshman QB can get over the learning curve quickly, they can play at the upper-middle tier of the conference. No games against Oregon or Penn State also help the projections. For more Michigan news and analysis, check out Wolverines Wire! No. 3 — Oregon Ducks ESPN Record Projection: 10.0-2.4 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Indiana, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, USC, Washington Projected Losses: Penn State There is one game on the schedule that could be really tough for the Ducks — at Penn State in Happy Valley — but other than that, this is a manageable schedule that could lead to a lot of wins. You don't have Ohio State or Michigan, and you get USC at home. While Oregon will have to head up to Seattle for the rivalry against Washington, they should be able to handle this slate just fine. For more Oregon news and analysis, check out Ducks Wire! No. 2 — Penn State Nittany Lions ESPN Record Projection: 10.2-2.2 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Nevada, Florida International, Villanova, Oregon, UCLA, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers Projected Losses: Ohio State Penn State is getting a lot of preseason respect, being ranked well inside the top five almost unanimously across the board, and being named the No. 1 team by ESPN. It makes sense, seeing as they return a lot of starters from last year's College Football Playoff team. As always, The question remains whether they can win the big games. Oregon and Ohio State come to Happy Valley in 2025. Can James Franklin get it done? I say he goes 1-1. For more Penn State news and analysis, check out Nittany Lions Wire! No. 1 — Ohio State Buckeyes ESPN Record Projection: 10.4-2.2 Ducks Wire Record Projection: 11-1 (9-0 Big Ten) Projected Wins: Grambling State, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers, Michigan Projected Losses: Texas It looks like Ohio State could be up for another impressive run in the Big Ten this year. I currently have them winning all of their conference games, meaning that they beat Penn State in Happy Valley, which will be a big test. The only game I see the Buckeyes losing comes in Week 1 against the Texas Longhorns. They certainly have the talent to win that game, but considering that it will be Julian Sayin's first career start, I went with a loss. For more Ohio State news and analysis, check out Buckeyes Wire! Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.
