By 2030 Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and five other cities to experience two-fold increase in heatwave days

The Hindu

11-06-2025

A study released by IPE Global and Esri India on Tuesday (June 10, 2025) reveals that Mumbai, Thane, Chennai, Delhi, Surat, Hyderabad, Patna and Bhubaneswar are projected to witness a two-fold increase in heatwave days.
The study titled 'Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate' was unveiled at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi as part of the 62nd session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to be held in Bonn, Germany from June 16 to 26, 2025.
The study reveals that extended heat wave conditions are likely to trigger more frequent, incessant, and erratic rainfall events and eight out of ten districts in India are going to experience multiple instances of such rainfall extremes by 2030.
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Abinash Mohanty, Head of the Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global, said that the frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these extreme heat and rainfall events have risen significantly in recent decades. India has witnessed a 15-fold increase in extreme heat wave days across the March-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months in the last three decades between 1993-2024. Alarmingly, the last decade alone has witnessed a 19-fold increase in extreme heat wave days. The study also found that monsoon seasons in India are witnessing an extended summer-like condition, except on non-rainy days.
Mr. Mohanty said, 'The study and its stark findings suggest how climate change has exposed India to extreme heat and rainfall, and the situation is going to be grimmer and harsher by 2030 with majority of the urban centres are going to be impacted the most.'
He further said that meteorological phenomenon like El Niño (warmer phase) and La Niña (colder phase) are going to gain stronger momentum, resulting in abrupt surge in climate extremes like flood, cyclones, storm surges and extreme heat. 'Our analysis suggests that around 72 per cent of the tier-I and tier-II cities are going to witness an increased occurrence of heat stress and extreme rainfall events, accompanied by storm surges, lightning and hailstorms. Embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establish climate-risk observatories should become a national imperative to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, and large-scale infrastructural projects from the vagaries of climate change,' Mr. Mohanty said.
Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur are witnessing the double whammy of heat stress and extreme rainfall, with more than 80 percent of the districts projected to be impacted by this by 2030. According to the study, coastal regions will experience heat stress-like conditions during the JJAS season by 2030. Approximately 69% of coastal districts are projected to face extended summer discomforts by 2030, increasing to 79% by 2040.
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Recently, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres issued a 'Call to Action on Extreme Heat in response to the deadly impacts of rising temperatures all over the world', and India is no exception.
Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global, said, 'Climate and development pathways are intricately linked. Nearly all countries of the Global South face the dual challenge of improving living conditions for large segments of their population while simultaneously adapting to the consequences of climate change. This study is a testament to how we can bring innovations from the margins to mainstream, making India and Global South climate ready.'
The reason behind the extreme heatwaves
The study found that eastern and western coastal districts have been observing unpredictable rainfall events more recurrently. Districts with higher heatwave occurrences in JJAS tend to have higher occurrences of incessant and erratic rainfall events as well. Districts that identified district hotspots under the current business-as-usual scenario will undergo a 63 per cent change in land-use and land-cover. These shifting patterns are driven by microclimatic changes across the Indian subcontinent that are triggered by local climate change drivers such as land-use-surface change, deforestation, encroachments on mangroves, and wetlands, said Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India.
'The growing intensity and frequency of extreme heat and rainfall events across India are no longer rare occurrences—they are signals of a shifting climate reality impacting lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Addressing this challenge requires a holistic, data-driven approach rooted in science and spatial intelligence. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, with its ability to integrate, visualize, and analyze diverse datasets, offers a powerful lens to understand climate impacts across economic, social, and environmental dimensions,' Mr. Kumar added.
GIS supports proactive planning—whether for climate-resilient infrastructure, disaster response, or public engagement and is already foundational to national missions like PARIVESH, Jal Jeevan Mission, and Clean Ganga, helping turn climate data into actionable insight.
The study recommends that risk assessment principles should form the cornerstone of India's strategy to build resilience against heatwaves and extreme rainfall. As an initial step, it proposes establishing a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) that can help identify, assess, and project chronic and acute heat risks at a hyper-granular level.
CRO uses advanced technologies like Earth Observation data and climate models to provide real-time and predictive information that can help policymakers, city planners, businesses, and the public understand the risks posed by climate change and make informed decisions to mitigate, adapt, and prepare for those risks.
The study also recommends devising risk financing instruments to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves and extreme rainfall events. It also suggests appointing heat-risk-champions within district disaster management committees to coordinate heat-risk mitigation efforts at the district level.