Israel's Gaza Attacks Spur European Leaders to Criticize Netanyahu
In recent weeks, the UK, Netherlands and France have started mulling such moves against Israel to help end the 20-month conflict, which has destroyed much of Gaza and sparked what international aid agencies say is a hunger crisis. Germany's pivot was the most surprising due to its historical position that protecting Israel is a post-Holocaust obligation.
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Europe's Gas Binge Leaves Asia in the Cold Again
Europe has accelerated its purchases of liquefied natural gas to refill its storage caverns for the winter, and once again, this has driven prices higher, sapping demand in Asia. This could turn into a seasonal pattern until new LNG capacity comes online—and it will definitely add to Europe's energy cost woes. Natural gas in storage in the European Union is currently at 58.90% of capacity. This time last year, gas in storage was at 75.5% of capacity, per S&P Platts data cited by Reuters' Clyde Russell this week. It needs to reach 90% by November this year, or December, at the latest, per the EU's storage target. This means that European buyers have little choice but to ramp up LNG purchases, whatever the cost—because they have no alternative. The reason, of course, is Europe's deliberate elimination of alternatives such as coal and, in the case of Germany and now Spain, nuclear. This elimination—in the name of a transition to low-emission energy generation—has reduced European countries' flexibility in sourcing their primary energy. So Europeans have been buying lots of LNG, to the tune of some 208.62 million tons over the first six months of the year, which was up by 1.7% from a year ago, Russell reported, citing Kpler figures. The inevitability of LNG purchases means that this will continue no matter what happens. For example, last month, the surge in prices was prompted by the war between Israel and Iran. With Europe still mostly unwilling to commit to long-term contracts, it has made itself vulnerable to such price swings—while Asia sticks with coal that it could fall back on should gas prices soar. In June, spot LNG prices in Asia hit a high of $14 per million British thermal units before retreating to $13.10 in the final week of the month. The war premium had a big role to play in that price jump, but so did consistently high shipments to Europe. Asian importers, meanwhile, reduced their intake in the face of higher prices. But here's the thing. China can afford to buy less LNG because it can ramp up pipeline imports from Russia and Central Asia. Europe does not have the luxury of an alternative supply. Europe, in other words, is stuck with LNG because Norway cannot boost its gas output either as fast or as high as it is necessary if Europe wants an alternative gas supply. It's worth noting, however, that many Asian energy importers have made promises to buy more U.S. liquefied gas specifically in order to avoid the tariff axe that President Trump has been waving at the world. This has limited their wiggle room, as it were, with regard to volumes. With regard to prices, however, long-term deals tend to fetch more stable prices, insulating both buyer and seller from the whims of the spot market. Even with the U.S. LNG purchase commitments, however, India has seen an 8.7% decline in its LNG imports over the first half of the year, suggesting price remains a not inconsiderable issue. China's LNG imports, on the other hand, were down a lot more sharply, by 22%. The tariff war with the United States was certainly a big factor, but Europe's demand may well have played a part as well. With European buyers willing to pay a premium to fill those storage caverns, Chinese gas traders have been happy to resell their LNG cargos, especially those coming from the U.S. and subject to new import tariffs in response to U.S. tariffs. So, chances are that Europe will continue to have to pay a premium to secure its gas reserves for peak demand season. Normally, there would not be a huge problem with that. Right now, however, Europe is spreading itself increasingly thin with spending plans, just as its heavy industries begin to raise the alarm about exorbitant energy costs. Expensive LNG is not going to do anything about these costs, and this means governments will have to step in. This, in turn, means even more spending to keep vital industries such as steelmaking alive. Asia, meanwhile, will continue to drive coal demand globally with its more open approach to energy security, prompted by the fact that most Asian countries cannot afford LNG on a whatever-the-cost basis. The problem, for Europe, is that it can't afford LNG on a whatever-the-cost basis over the long term, either. The EU's gas storage refill bill looks set to be overall higher than last year's. If this winter is as regular as the last one, this would mean an even higher storage refill bill for 2026. This would mean more support for businesses and, likely, households. At some point, wealthy Europe is going to find it's not that wealthy anymore—because of its energy policies. By Irina Slav for More Top Reads From this article on Sign in to access your portfolio
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29 minutes ago
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Brady's Q1 Earnings Call: Our Top 5 Analyst Questions
Brady's first quarter saw double-digit sales growth, but results came in below Wall Street's revenue expectations, leading to a significant negative market reaction. Management attributed the performance to strong organic growth in the Americas and Asia, especially in high-demand industrial identification products, while Europe and Australia lagged due to a weaker industrial environment. CEO Russell Schaller highlighted ongoing restructuring in underperforming regions and an uptick in R&D spending, saying, 'We are in the position to drive future earnings growth in Europe due to the efficiency actions we've taken.' Is now the time to buy BRC? Find out in our full research report (it's free). Revenue: $382.6 million vs analyst estimates of $386.6 million (11.4% year-on-year growth, 1% miss) Adjusted EPS: $1.22 vs analyst estimates of $1.22 (in line) Adjusted EBITDA: $86.76 million vs analyst estimates of $82 million (22.7% margin, 5.8% beat) Management reiterated its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance of $4.56 at the midpoint Operating Margin: 17.6%, in line with the same quarter last year Market Capitalization: $3.27 billion While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention. Keith Housum (Northcoast Research) asked about the potential for tariffs to hurt demand or alter manufacturing locations; CEO Russell Schaller said no demand destruction is evident yet, but effects could emerge as inventory cycles through and price increases are implemented. Housum (Northcoast Research) questioned the sustainability of lower SG&A expenses; Schaller emphasized ongoing efforts to drive operational efficiency, though short-term fluctuations are possible, with a long-term goal of continued cost reduction. Housum (Northcoast Research) inquired about the strategic opportunity behind the Funai acquisition; Schaller detailed its potential to fill gaps in Brady's direct part marking capabilities and provide a more complete industrial identification solution. Steve Ferazani (Sidoti) asked why guidance for Americas and Asia growth was conservative for next quarter despite recent strength; Schaller cited anticipated tariff headwinds in the U.S. and hopes for stabilization, not further decline, in Europe. Ferazani (Sidoti) requested detail on China trends; Schaller said China remains difficult but is less significant to overall results, with revenue largely tied to multinational customers and a recent facility closure to right-size operations. In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be watching (1) how well Brady can offset tariff-related cost increases through pricing or supply chain changes, (2) the pace of recovery or further decline in European industrial end markets, and (3) the commercial impact of new product launches and integration of recent acquisitions. Execution on R&D initiatives and continued operational discipline will also be key markers of progress. Brady currently trades at $69.02, down from $76.22 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it's free). Market indices reached historic highs following Donald Trump's presidential victory in November 2024, but the outlook for 2025 is clouded by new trade policies that could impact business confidence and growth. While this has caused many investors to adopt a "fearful" wait-and-see approach, we're leaning into our best ideas that can grow regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate. Take advantage of Mr. Market by checking out our Top 5 Growth Stocks for this month. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025). Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Kadant (+351% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Sign in to access your portfolio
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GBX Q2 Deep Dive: Cost Control, Fleet Management, and Guidance Beat Drive Strong Quarter
Rail transportation company Greenbrier (NYSE:GBX) announced better-than-expected revenue in Q2 CY2025, with sales up 2.7% year on year to $842.7 million. The company's full-year revenue guidance of $3.25 billion at the midpoint came in 1.1% above analysts' estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.86 per share was 88.8% above analysts' consensus estimates. Is now the time to buy GBX? Find out in our full research report (it's free). Revenue: $842.7 million vs analyst estimates of $785.7 million (2.7% year-on-year growth, 7.3% beat) Adjusted EPS: $1.86 vs analyst estimates of $0.99 (88.8% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $122.3 million vs analyst estimates of $98.34 million (14.5% margin, 24.4% beat) The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $3.25 billion at the midpoint Operating Margin: 11%, up from 8.8% in the same quarter last year Sales Volumes fell 38.1% year on year (37% in the same quarter last year) Market Capitalization: $1.48 billion Greenbrier's second quarter performance was well received by the market, as the company surpassed Wall Street's revenue and profit expectations. Management credited effective operational execution and ongoing efficiency initiatives for the improved results. CEO Lorie Tekorius emphasized that 'aggregate gross margin stands at an impressive 18%,' reflecting both cost reduction efforts and favorable production mix. The company also benefited from its European footprint rationalization and North American insourcing project, which are expected to provide ongoing annual savings. Additionally, recurring revenue from leasing and fleet management operations grew significantly, with fleet utilization remaining high. Management highlighted that 'flexibility and responsiveness to uneven market conditions are a competitive advantage for Greenbrier.' Looking ahead, Greenbrier's reaffirmed full-year guidance reflects optimism about continued operational discipline and margin improvement. Management expects tailwinds from U.S. tax and trade policy clarity, with Tekorius noting the Senate's passage of a budget bill could 'energize the markets for capital goods like railcars.' The company is focused on scaling its North American insourcing initiative and maintaining strong liquidity to support strategic investments. CFO Michael Donfris pointed to updated guidance for higher gross and operating margins, anticipating a solid finish to the year. Management also sees opportunities from railcar fleet aging and infrastructure-driven demand, while ongoing efficiency projects are expected to bolster profitability. Management attributed the quarter's results to execution on cost reduction, improved production efficiency, and disciplined fleet management, while strategic capital allocation supported both business growth and shareholder returns. Efficiency initiatives drive savings: The company completed its European footprint rationalization ahead of schedule, projecting at least $10 million in annual savings, and is nearing completion of its North American insourcing project in Mexico. Recurring revenue growth: Leasing and fleet management recurring revenue rose nearly 50% over two years, with high fleet utilization at 98%. Management highlighted progress toward doubling recurring revenue by 2028. Balanced fleet strategy: Greenbrier maintained a disciplined approach to growing its lease fleet, investing opportunistically and emphasizing high renewal trends. The company expects railcar availability in North America to remain tight due to supply constraints and increased scrappage. Healthy backlog and syndication: The global new railcar backlog stands at nearly 19,000 units, supporting production visibility. Syndication of 1,700 units in the quarter provided strong liquidity and margins. Capital allocation and liquidity: The company renewed major credit facilities, resulting in its highest liquidity since 2023. Greenbrier continued returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with $22 million in buybacks this quarter. Greenbrier's outlook is anchored by efficiency gains, stable manufacturing margins, and anticipated demand recovery as trade and tax policy uncertainties resolve. Manufacturing cost discipline: Management expects gross margins to remain within their mid-teens target due to continued operating efficiencies and manufacturing cost control, particularly as the North American insourcing initiative scales. Demand tailwinds and fleet aging: The aging North American railcar fleet and anticipated clarity on U.S. trade policy are expected to drive new order activity. Programmatic railcar restoration remains a high-margin business, supplementing new railcar production. Liquidity and balanced capital deployment: Strong liquidity and renewed credit facilities position Greenbrier to invest in growth areas, while a disciplined approach to fleet growth and share repurchases supports shareholder value. Management highlighted ongoing monitoring of production rates amid order fluctuations. In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the pace and impact of cost efficiency initiatives, especially as North American insourcing ramps up; (2) trends in new orders and backlog growth as trade and tax policies evolve; and (3) sustainability of high fleet utilization and renewal rates. Execution on capital deployment and the evolving demand for railcar restoration will also be key indicators. Greenbrier currently trades at $54.12, up from $47.04 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it's free). The market surged in 2024 and reached record highs after Donald Trump's presidential victory in November, but questions about new economic policies are adding much uncertainty for 2025. While the crowd speculates what might happen next, we're homing in on the companies that can succeed regardless of the political or macroeconomic environment. Put yourself in the driver's seat and build a durable portfolio by checking out our Top 5 Strong Momentum Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025). Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Sign in to access your portfolio
