Edinburgh Council by-election a ‘toss-up' as all bets off

The Herald Scotland

3 days ago

The election was triggered following the tragic death of Labour councillor Val Walker in April. Walker was elected to the City Chambers for the first time in 2022 and served as convener of the authority's Culture and Communities Committee.
In the last local election the Conservatives, SNP and Labour emerged as victors in the ward. But with all three parties having seen shifts in support since 2022, the outcome of this contest is far from certain.
On the ballot, often a crowded one in Edinburgh by-elections, are candidates representing the five mainstream parties - Scottish National Party, Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, Scottish Liberal Democrats and Scottish Greens - alongside the Scottish Family Party, Scottish Libertarian Party and five independents.
Though the vote will still use the Single Transferrable Vote (STV) system - where candidates are ranked in order of preference - a single-seat by-election means it functions more like a winner-takes-all contest, making it harder to predict and less proportional than a full multi-member race.
So when it comes to predictions, all bets are off.
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As one campaign source put it, "I have absolutely no earthly idea what will happen'.
They told The Herald it was the 'most open election I've seen in my nearly 20 years in Edinburgh politics'.
Similarly, polling and elections website Ballot Box Scotland predicts a 'Holyrood five tossup'.
According to analysis published by BBS, the 2022 result run as a single seat election sees the Conservatives finish in third place after transfers despite having the most first preference votes, with Labour going 'the opposite direction, starting from third but climbing to a relatively solid victory over the SNP of just over 10%'.
BBS writes: 'Not so very long ago that'd mean we could just say that this was going to be a Labour win, done and dusted, no questions asked.
'Obviously, circumstances have rather changed lately.
"Labour have been doing appallingly badly at by-elections, and have even begun to lose wards they were the 2022 winners in.
"That's not to say things have been particularly rosy for the SNP either; they've been piling up the wins not because they're gaining or even holding onto votes, but just because Labour are falling that much harder and not getting the transfers.'
As for the insurgent Reform UK - who recorded their best ever parliamentary election result in Scotland in this month's Holyrood by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, finishing in third place with 26% - the respected pollster expects a solid share in Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart, but not 'comparable to other recent by-elections'.
'Edinburgh is the least favourable part of Scotland for them,' BBS adds, 'and it's not the posh Conservatives in wards like this that Reform have been siphoning their votes from. Even so, the Conservatives have been doing poorly over the past couple of years as well.
'In other words, in general I'd expect all of the top three to be doing worse now than in 2022. That makes this difficult to predict.
'On top of that, the Greens really weren't that far behind either so should be considered in contention, but remember that their voters are the least likely to turn out at by-elections, which is a mark against them too.
"Plus, we can't forget the Lib Dems. Despite relatively weak results in this ward specifically, they are the only Holyrood party clearly and unarguably on the up right now, especially in Edinburgh.'
BBS told The Herald that the Greens "have been absolutely gunning for this one" and they had seen "substantial SNP and Labour groups posting too".
The bigger picture in Edinburgh City Chambers is that Labour is under pressure to hold on to this seat.
Labour has controlled the 63-member council since 2022, despite winning just 13 seats, thanks to support from the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Since dropping to 11 councillors, those two parties have continued to lend support to the Labour group in crucial votes, helping it retain control of the local authority.
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Any further loss of seats would further weaken their credibility as a ruling party in the Chambers, although their 'majority' would still be safe if the other two 'pro-union' parties continue to offer support.
A result from the Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart by-election is expected around midnight on Friday. The Herald will be at the count to provide live results and reaction.
Returning officer for Edinburgh, Paul Lawrence said: 'With the by-election fast approaching, I'd encourage all residents of the Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart ward to head to their local polling station this Thursday. Please remember to bring your poll card.
'The councillor you elect will represent your community on key issues both within the ward and across Edinburgh - so make sure you take this important opportunity to make your voice heard.
'To make sure your vote is counted, if you've received a postal ballot, please return it as soon as possible.'
The candidates standing for election are: