Trump's policy curbs: New innovation order and India's strategic rise
The flows of globalisation were once imagined catalysing a new world order based on leveraging trade, talents and innovation. However, what is now being witnessed under the second term of President Donald Trump in the US is a reversal of such flows. While the US seeks to Make America Great Again, a reduced role of the world's most powerful actor in pushing such flows not just create a vacuum for other actors in the international system, but also lead the system to suffer several strains. Policies under Trump 2.0, in the form of tariffs and visa restrictions, as well intended as they may be for America's safeguarding of its sovereignty and prowess, are disrupting traditional economic and talent flows. Iran Israel War Live Updates: President Donald Trump said Iran should have signed a deal with the United States. (AFP)
Extremely high tariffs, such as the proposed 100% duties on BRICS countries, aim to reshore manufacturing to the US, but they also risk increasing costs, while companies are pushed to seek alternatives outside China. How well this pans out for the US as well as other economies is something that is to be watched out for. Restrictions on H1-B visas and optional training programs, similarly, limit access to global talent, potentially creating skill gaps in US tech sectors. While it is the sovereign right for the US to decide what role it wants to play in the existing world order, other countries need to look out for themselves and turn adversities into opportunities. Disruptions to innovations in the US have been driving innovation to other hubs, as companies and talents seek environments with fewer restrictions and lower costs.
Countries like India, Germany and Canada have been emerging as alternative hubs. In fact, the US's tightened visa policies have already led to a 15% rise in Indian student applications to Canadian Universities and increased interest in Germany's no-tuition public universities. In June this year, speaking in New Delhi, German ambassador to India, Philipp Ackermann stated that there are already 50,000 Indian students in Germany and the country is keen to welcome more. Meanwhile, US tech giants, which have been reliant on foreign talent, could face labour shortages, prompting companies to expand research and development centres abroad, particularly in India, where local talent, owing to the positive demographic dividend that India has; is abundant and costs are competitive. What this sort of decentralisation of innovation could lead to is a reduction of the US's dominance in tech, and could create a more multipolar innovation landscape.
India, in fact is uniquely positioned to capitalise on these shifts owing to its robust IT sector, growing manufacturing capabilities and strategic alignment with US interests, particularly in countering China's influence. The push under Trump 2.0 to reduce reliance on Chinese tech firms, aligns with India's own efforts to limit Chinese influence in cybersecurity and telecommunications. As US forms diversify away from China, India is positioned as a prime destination for investment in semiconductors, 5G and AI. Indian tech giants such as Infosys, Wipro and TCS, could see increased demands as US companies expand operations in India. Additionally, restrictive H1-B policies may drive Indian tech professionals to build domestic startups, and help India in reducing brain drain, while further fostering India's own Silicon Valleys. In any case, US companies, seeking alternatives to Chinese manufacturing have been increasingly turning to India, particularly in auto components, pharmaceuticals and chemicals for example.
In the realm of education and talent development, India can capitalise on the opportunity created by visa restrictions in the US, by expanding its own higher education system. Joint degree programmes with US institutions, potentially ties to Fulbright-Nehru scholarships can go a long way in attracting talents and fostering innovative ecosystems. The process has already started, as foreign Universities, are increasingly establishing a presence in India, driven by the National Education Policy (NEP), and the University Grants Commission regulations of 2023. Top global Universities, that are ranked in the top 500 globally or in specific subjects are to set up branch campuses, and to collaborate with Indian institutions.
The path ahead for India however has challenges as well, and India has to navigate potential trade wars and further visa restrictions that can strain its $ 254 billion tech sector, which relies heavily on the US market. Diplomatic statecraft will be more crucial than ever to maintain strong bilateral ties, particularly given Trump's transactional approach. Preparing itself through further investments in education and tech is a necessity for India to navigate these challenges. Trump 2.0's restrictive policies, while immensely challenging should also be seen as a catalyst for global innovation, with India poised to emerge as a leading actor. Leveraging its tech prowess, manufacturing potential and through educational reforms, India can envisage turning these curbs into opportunities which will strengthen its economic and strategic standing.
This article is authored by Sriparna Pathak, professor, China Studies and International Relations, Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat.
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Indian Express
29 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Ravi Shankar Prasad at Idea Exchange: ‘No leader can dare to impose an Emergency. That's the biggest positive consequence of that struggle'
Senior BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad looks back at the Emergency 50 years later, the institutional guardrails that ensure it does not happen again and the upcomig Bihar elections. The conversation was moderated by Liz Mathew, Deputy Editor, The Indian Express. Liz Mathew: How do you look back at the Emergency 50 years later? The Emergency was the darkest chapter of India's independent history. The whole country was turned into a prison. I was an intermediate student when the JP (Jayaprakash Narayan) movement started and we became big leaders in the Bihar student movement. Mrs Gandhi was losing her appeal, there was an economic downturn, price rise, and corruption. This is when the movement gathered steam. In Bihar, torture began before the Emergency. I was arrested under MISA (Maintenance of Internal Security Act) in front of my house. Ten policemen jumped over me in the dead of night while I was going on a tour to Bhabua. I suffered an injury and was put in jail. Mrs Gandhi was becoming an authoritarian. And then her election was set aside by the Allahabad High Court. The brave judge Jagmohanlal Sinha, who never had any limelight, was a pre-collegium appointee. And thereafter, Emergency was imposed in the dead of the night. In that dark period, there was one light of hope, The Indian Express and Ramnath Goenkaji. Every attempt was made to take over The Indian Express by sinister means. I was underground during the Emergency and I have seen the torture from close quarters. JP once told us that he was arrested in the same guest house in Haryana, where he saw Morarji Desai walking in the garden. JP's kidney was seriously damaged and he was shifted to Jaslok hospital. When his condition became critical, he came to Patna. God saved him because he had to save the democracy of India. Dev Kant Barooah was the president of the Congress party. He coined the expression, 'Indira is India and India is Indira'. Sycophancy was at its extreme. The Supreme Court failed us shockingly. Nine High Courts of India quoted a detention order as arbitrary. When the matter went to the Supreme Court, it was reversed. One judge asked Niren De, the then Attorney General, if a detainee was shot inside the jail, would he have any remedy? He said, 'no, he has no remedy'. That argument was effectively upheld by the court. It was a shameful moment for the Indian judiciary. There was one brave judge, Hans Raj Khanna, who gave a dissenting judgment. And he was denied the post of the key justice for two months and was superseded. These are very emotional moments. Being under JP has been one of the most extraordinary experiences of my life. He was a great leader, a great freedom fighter. He scaled the 30-foot wall of Hazaribagh Jail and ran away. He struggled, was tortured, and arrested at the Nepal border. Nehruji liked him. He offered him to join the government and become the deputy prime minister. He said, no, I will work for Sarvodaya and Bhoodan. In 1977, when BJP won, all because of him, he could have been the PM, but he said, no. Liz Mathew: What do you remember about your time in jail? Those who were political prisoners were treated differently and the others were treated horribly. This was a great influence on me when I became a lawyer in Patna High Court. I decided I will take up the cases of these inmates. During the Emergency, many people — socialist leaders, Sarvodaya leaders, and RSS leaders were arrested and tortured. But I remember many young RSS Swayamsevaks whose nails were extracted to get confessions. It was torture and it was extreme. The lesson I learned in jail was to help the needy and the undertrials. Liz Mathew: The 77th government formation — the coming together of Opposition parties with a lot of hope and optimism to provide an alternative post the Emergency — failed miserably. Why do you think that happened? It was pure craving for power. JP was disenchanted, so were we. This whole fight — Charan Singh, Raj Narayan, among others, was very unfortunate and the Opposition lost out. But what is the biggest lesson of the Emergency? People of India know who they are and what they owe to themselves. They know for sure they can defeat any political party by the power of their vote. Indira Gandhi lost. Sanjay Gandhi lost. The Congress Party was wiped out in North India, and only one seat was won by Kamal Nath… I would've appreciated Rahul Gandhi or his party to have publicly apologised for all the atrocities against journalists, against the supersession of judges, against public leaders. But that is not forthcoming. Liz Mathew: In the run-up to the 2024 election, various parties came together. They say that an undeclared Emergency is happening now. They have the right to ask questions. What else will they say? After all, the NDA led by Narendra Modi is winning elections. The point is ab aapko vote nahi milta toh hum kya karein? Aap jeet jaiye. Get the votes. Every day they hold a press conference, every day they shower classic abuses on Narendra Modi. They also keep on chasing us. That is what democracy is about. On the emergency | It was pure craving for power… I would have appreciated Rahul Gandhi or his party to have publicly apologised for the atrocities against journalists, against public leaders. But that's not forthcoming Aakash Joshi: MISA became a symbol of the oppression of the Emergency. Why do you think no government has been able to get rid of preventive detention, which is not only allowed, but also being used by the government, and various agencies? Do the victims of terror have human rights or not? Commander Narwal, who was killed brutally in Pahalgam, does his wife have a human right or not? Similarly, does India have threats or not? From Maoists, from terrorists, from their network? Therefore, in many cases, you have to resort to preventive detention because of the sheer nature of the challenge. The larger question is, when India became free, why was it kept? There is a proper safeguard in the Constitution: if you are arrested in preventive detention, you have to be present before the advisory board, which confirms it, and thereafter, you can challenge it in court. In many cases, courts have quashed the detention order if it does not satisfy the grounds of detention. That is a safeguard. Vikas Pathak: While JP was the face of the movement, who do you think are the three or four people who did a creditable job? Lalu Prasad Yadav was in jail with me, though much senior to me. Nitish Kumar was there. In the strategy part, I think Ram Bahadur Rai, KN Govindacharya and Nanaji Deshmukh. I remember Nanaji Deshmukh moving throughout the country in his Fiat and he'd keep the literature in the stepney of the car. No leader can dare to impose an Emergency in India now. That's the biggest positive consequence of that struggle. Shalini Langer: Why do you think Indira Gandhi called off the Emergency or called for elections? That is a million-dollar question. The only thing which strikes me is that there were a lot of international campaigns against her. In the US, in the UK, particularly. India's growth was nothing, but we used to be proud of the fact that we were a democracy. That was also snatched away. There were protests abroad. Remember JP was a socialist leader. All the socialist internationals also stood by him. Perhaps they pressured her. She misjudged. Her system had informed her she will sweep the polls. Amitabh Sinha: Fifty years after the actual Emergency, what institutional guardrails have we set up to make sure that no leader can think about imposing an Emergency? First are the newspapers, journalists, the TV media and social media; second is judicial: PIL, public opinion; and third is that all the political groups know that if we impose Emergency, people will drop us. Amitabh Sinha: Why are more active efforts not made to get the 42nd Amendment reversed? Parts of it were challenged. There is only one thing which was accepted. In the Preamble, secularism was introduced, but it was not touched for obvious reasons. The Fundamental Duties remain. Let the people and political parties not misunderstand me, but India has to become a big sporting power. Shouldn't sports come under the concurrent list? The government of India and the state government can pool their resources. If India's tourism has to become global, these are questions which will come. Amitabh Sinha: But the objection to the 42nd Amendment was not just on the content but also on the process itself. The whole 42nd Amendment process was conceived in sin. To make Mrs Gandhi the president. Autocracy or benign autocracy, as the case may be, and the rest is history. The election law was changed retrospectively to ensure her success. Liz Mathew: Often we see arrest warrants or FIRs against journalists. Draconian laws are imposed on YouTubers. How do you justify that? Freedom of the Press is sacrosanct. Independence of the judiciary is sacrosanct. And if Indian democracy has become what it is today over 75 years, apart from political activism and the people, the judiciary and media have played a crucial role. And obviously, if a CM in the East arrests someone for a cartoon… Those who are in politics need to understand one thing: Fun, pun, vyangya and cartoons are a part of democracy. Let us learn to accept it. But is all the YouTubers' content proper? Is there not a case of some YouTubers pandering to (content from) across the borders? You cannot generalise it. Article 19.1 gives the freedom of speech and expression. Article 19.2 in the same Constitution says that reasonable restrictions can be imposed. On freedom of press | Freedom of the Press is sacrosanct. Those who are in politics need to understand one thing: Fun, pun, vyangya and cartoons are a part of democracy. Let's learn to accept it Liz Mathew: What do you think of the widespread criticism of the role of media, especially visual media, during Operation Sindoor. I don't accept this general criticism. When there is a big Army operation, some degree of sanctity has to be given. There cannot be an hourly briefing. One briefing was done by the foreign secretary along with two very distinguished women officers of the armed forces. Thereafter, all the DGs of military operations of the Air Force, Navy and Army gave a wonderful presentation. I had gone to Europe and addressed media in London, Paris, Brussels, Germany, and think tanks. I was asked repeatedly: 'why did you send your forces inside?' And then we said, you can send your armed forces 12,000 kilometres and kill Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan. The life of an ordinary Indian is as costly or precious as that of an American or European. We went only four kilometers. Then they say, why don't you discuss? We were very clear that we have not come to seek your mediation. We are capable of handling Pakistan as we have handled wars. But today, terrorism is a cancer, knocking at your door. And any terrorist attempt, be it in 9/11, in New York, in London, in Paris, in Marseille, in Brussels or Germany, it is either a Pakistani terrorist or one trained in Pakistan. The generals in command in Pakistan are not the political leaders and have vested interests to have these terrorists — their assets to wage a war. In that scenario, whom to talk to? Liz Mathew: During your visit to these multiple cities as part of an all-party delegation, what do you think India should do more? I learned that the committee system of the European Parliament is very powerful. There is a need to utilise this interaction. And when I would introduce my team and say that I am the leader of BJP, we have Congress members, Shiv Sena members, and we have thinkers, then they used to appreciate the diversity of India's politics. The second is, they are deeply impressed by the economic performance of India. Europe wants to have good relations with India. Liz Mathew: The world is facing conflict after conflict. But we don't see India as a player of significance. The global scenario is becoming complex with alarming regularity. What about multilateralism? What about global institutions? What I foresee is this: apart from the UN, many other institutions like the G7, like G20, like Quad, are emerging. I think in all this, India's role is very powerful. As far as the conflict between Israel and Iran is concerned, India has a good equation with both. Therefore, the ceasefire is something we welcome. But the way India rescued its citizens in Iran and Israel is commendable. Liz Mathew: In the Donald Trump era, do you think that India is in a dilemma over how to deal with the tariffs? Let us trust the seasoned capability of Indian negotiators to have a good deal. Trade is a factor which is conditioned by a lot of supplementary factors. You cannot be judgmental today. A lot of give and take, is there. I would refrain from making any comment. On Bihar not developing A second-rung leadership | Nitish Kumar and our relationship goes way far back… If he has been taken as a leader, it doesn't mean the capable people are not there. We will win Bihar again, convincingly Amitabh Sinha: On the judicial reforms, what are the few things that need to be prioritised apart from the Collegium vs NJAC (National Judicial Appointments Commission) debate? With a very good judicial data grid available now, we know how long the cases have been pending in the district courts. All the criminal cases pending for trial for more than five to 10 years and all the pending criminal and civil appeals must be prioritised. There should be a conscious attempt to write off all these outstanding matters. NJAC was brought in by me as the Law minister. There were a lot of recommendations of the Constitutional Review Commission of the Law Commission. And for the first time in the contested polity of India, every party supported it. In the Rajya Sabha, only Ram Jethmalani was a dissenting voice. It has been quashed. We have accepted the judgment. The PM, assisted by his Cabinet, is the key player in the appointment of the President, the Vice President, the three army chiefs, the CVC, the CAG, and the Public Service Commission. He holds the nuclear button. 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Indian Express
40 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Scouting for 6 mid-air refuellers, IAF begins technical evaluation
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Indian Express
44 minutes ago
- Indian Express
India would love a big, beautiful trade pact with US: Nirmala Sitharaman
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