Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta prediction, odds, pick for UFC 316
We're back for another betting prediction and pick for UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 as we head to the Heavyweight Division for this next bout. Ranked contenders will get their shot at each other as No. 7 Serghei Spivac of Moldova will take on No. 11 Waldo Cortes-Acosta of the Dominican Republic. Check the UFC odds series for our Spivac-Cortes-Acosta prediction and pick.
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Serghei Spivac (17-5) has gone 8-5 since joining the UFC in 2019. Following a three-fight winning streak that saw him notch three finishes, he's gone 1-2 over his three most recent bouts. After two cancellations against would-be opponent Shamil Gaziev, he'll look to put away another contender waiting in the wings. Spivac stands 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (13-1) has gone 6-1 inside the UFC since 2022. After dropping the only bout of his UFC tenure, he's notched four consecutive victories ahead of this one, with his latest win coming against Ryan Spann in impressive fashion. He'll hope to jump the rankings as he searches for five straight. Cortes-Acosta stands 6-foot-4 with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 316 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 316 Odds: Serghei Spivac-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Odds
Serghei Spivac: -142
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Waldo Cortes-Acosta: +120
Over 2.5 rounds: +120
Under 2.5 rounds: -154
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Why Serghei Spivac Will Win
Last Fight: (L) Jailton Almeida – TKO (punches, R1)
Last 5: 3-2
Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Serghei Spivac comes into this bout following a loss to a motivated Jailton Almeida, and it certainly wasn't his best showing, but the gap in athleticism and grappling could be to blame for the defeat. During this bout, he'll be much more in control when it comes to the grappling, as his opponent has shown signs of weakness when being taken down. From top position, Spivac can make himself very heavy and is likely to steal some rounds if he's able to land his takedowns effectively.
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Spivac will also be working with a significant eight-inch reach advantage, and although his opponent is a much stronger boxer, Spivac has shown improvements with his stand-up game over the last few fights. Still, he hasn't been nearly as aggressive in engaging opponents over the last few bouts, so it's certainly something he'll have to improve ahead of this fight.
To be successful here, look for Spivac to engage and go to the clinch much more often, where he's most powerful. He has a knack for throwing opponents off their balance, and it ties into his ground game very well. From there, he has a chance to dominate with his strength while negating the pressure boxing style from Cortes-Acosta.
Why Waldo Cortes-Acosta Will Win
Last Fight: (W) Ryan Spann – KO (left hook, R2)
Last 5: 4-1
Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Waldo Cortes-Acosta comes into this bout following four-straight wins for the longest streak of his UFC tenure. He's often praised for his fluid boxing as a heavyweight and he certainly has the combinations to show for it. He does a great job of maintaining a safe distance while rifling combinations off, but he'll have to work at a reach disadvantage where he should be more focused on countering and being defensive than trying to knock Spivac out right away.
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Two of his last four wins have come by way of unanimous decision, so Waldo Cortes-Acosta is slowly proving he's capable of winning the bout in a multitude of ways. His takedown defense is a solid 66% up to this point, but he'll certainly want to avoid mixing things up on the ground against someone like Spivac.
In order to win this bout, Cortes-Acosta will have to remain diligent in staying on his feet while breaking away from the clinch of his opponent. If he's able to do so, it opens the door for another dominant striking performance as he'll certainly have the more fluid boxing throughout this fight.
Final Serghei Spivac-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction & Pick
This should be another entertaining clash between talented heavyweights as they boast differing styles heading into this fight. Waldo Cortes-Acosta has made a name for himself as one of the more fluid boxers in the division, while Spivac will be looking to maul his opponent on the ground and create a significant discrepancy in the grappling department.
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Still, Waldo Cortes-Acosta has shown great ability to force wrestlers to stand and strike with him due to his sheer size, so I don't expect Spivac to have his way throughout much of this fight. Either way, we should see most of this fight take place on the feet, where Cortes-Acosta will sport a significant advantage.
For our final prediction, we'll roll with Waldo Cortes-Acosta to get the win as he picks-and-pops his way to a close decision.
Final Serghei Spivac-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction & Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+120)
Related: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro prediction, odds, pick for UFC 316
Related: Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson prediction, odds, pick for UFC 316
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