UH: Urgent response required to save world's coral reefs
The research found that the reefs are unable to beat the heat and effects of climate change, which rings the emergency alarm for conservationists.
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However, there is still hope, as the research showed that immediate actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can improve the future of these iconic ocean scenes across the planet.
'As the ocean warms, species tend to move poleward,' said lead author Noam Vogt-Vincent, lead author of the study. 'We know from the fossil record that coral reefs have previously expanded their ranges in response to past climate change, but we didn't know whether this was a matter of decades or millennia.'
In order to predict changes in the distribution of these reefs, the research team used complex simulation models running on UH's high-performance computing cluster. The team created a global model including approximately 50,000 coral reef sites to research.Using the model, the researches tested three future emissions scenarios: one with low warming, around two degrees Celsius, a moderate warming scenario, around three degrees Celsius and a high warming model, which is greater than four degrees Celsius.
'By modeling coral reefs globally and incorporating evolution and connectivity, this study provides an unprecedented long-term view of how these complex ecosystems will respond to climate change,' said research professor Lisa McManus.
Provided the current condition of the climate on coral reefs, the researchers found both good news and bad news.
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'Unfortunately, while we've confirmed that coral reef range expansion will indeed eventually occur, the biggest coral losses are expected in the next 60 years, meaning these new, higher-latitude reefs won't form fast enough to save most tropical coral species,' Vogt-Vincent said.
While northern Florida, southern Australia and southern Japan may see new reefs in the future, they will not be in existence soon enough to help corals survive through the century, UH said.
While the future seems bleak, there is still hope, with significant cuts in emissions, such as those outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement, could dramatically reduce the loss of coral.
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Currently, coral reduction is on track to lose up to 86% of coral reefs; but with lower emissions, losses could be reduced to only around 33% of coral reefs.
'Our study suggests that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will not just improve coral reef futures this century, but for hundreds to thousands of years into the future,' Vogt-Vincent said. 'Our actions over the next few decades will therefore have incredibly long-lasting consequences for coral reefs globally.'
Researchers will continue to monitor reef levels with their supercomputer power to try to better understand both threats and solutions surrounding the world's coral reefs.
For more information, visit the Hawaiʻi Institute of Marine Biology's website.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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