Monsoon lull phase in Maha, revival likely around I-Day
The extended range forecast indicated that the ongoing weak monsoon conditions would persist for the next two weeks across the core monsoon zone, a senior official of India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday.
While central India and Maharashtra will experience below normal rainfall, south peninsular India is likely to witness a monsoon revival. Good rainfall activity is expected there, particularly in Tamil Nadu, south Karnataka and Kerala, during the next few days.
"The central Indian region and parts of Maharashtra — part of the core monsoon zone — are unlikely to see monsoon revival in the next few days," another senior IMD official said.
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He said the monsoon trough had moved to the north of its normal position, resulting in the weakening of monsoon activity over the core monsoon zone. When the monsoon trough shifts northward from its normal position, it disrupts the typical flow of moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal towards central India and Maharashtra.
This northward displacement causes the trough to align closer to the foothills of the Himalayas, where the topography and atmospheric dynamics favour rainfall in the northern plains and northeastern states, leaving the core monsoon zone relatively dry.
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Another IMD official said, "Monsoon over the south peninsular India is likely to revive after Aug 6. The monsoon trough is likely to continue towards north, close to the foothills, in the next two weeks. So there's no chance of monsoon revival for central India, including most parts of Maharashtra, for the next two weeks."
Independent weather forecaster Abhijit Modak said, "The monsoon entered a break phase from Aug 1.
It will persist during the first half of the month. Revival prospects emerge in the second half of Aug."
He said, "Monsoon behavior follows a cyclical pattern. Active phases alternate with break phases in wave-like sequences. After experiencing an active monsoon during the latter half of July, we are now witnessing a break phase, where the monsoon trough has displaced northward to the Himalayan foothills."
Modak said, "This northward shift of the monsoon trough creates break conditions over core monsoon zone as no active weather systems currently exist over the Bay of Bengal.
During this phase, monsoon winds weaken and dry air intrusion from the Middleeast establishes break monsoon conditions over parts of central India."
He said, "The active monsoon phase is likely to resume around Independence Day. Prior to this revival, atmospheric conditions suggest formation of an upper air cyclonic circulation near the Tamil Nadu coast around Aug 6 or 7."
Modak said, "This developing system will weaken the monsoon westerlies and initiate easterly wind flow, impacting Maharashtra's weather.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to commence in Marathwada and interior Maharashtra, particularly in drought-prone regions, with increased probability after Aug 8."
He said, "Thunderstorm rainfall is anticipated across interior areas, including Vidarbha, Marathwada and eastern parts of Pune district near Baramati, during Aug 8 to 10. Pune city may also experience brief thunderstorm activity for a day or two during this period."
Modak said, "Break monsoon dynamics differ significantly from active phases. While active monsoons generate systems near the Odisha or West Bengal coast, break conditions favor formation of secondary upper air cyclonic circulations near the Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh coast or the Rayalaseema region, subsequently triggering thunderstorm development over Maharashtra. These thunderstorms exhibit scattered, isolated characteristics with localized heavy rainfall.
Rain-shadow areas in Maharashtra, that typically receive minimal precipitation of 10-20mm, can experience intense downpours of 50-70mm within short durations during thunderstorm episodes."
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